Today I thought we might take a bit of a squiz at how the polling metrics of Rudd and Howard compare to each other after their first respective year in office. To keep consistency, we’ll use monthly polling averages of only phone polls for the two party preferred vote, and Newspoll monthly averages for the satisfaction and preferred PM ratings.
Since there isn’t much in the way of polling undertaken immediately after an election, we’ll also start the comparison the second month after the election – so for Howard elected in March 1996 we’ll start with May 1996 polling, and for Rudd elected in November 2007 we’ll start with January 2008 polling. That gives us a compatible time line for each government from which we can make comparisons.
First up, the two party preferred vote for each using the monthly average from Newspoll and Nielsen, as well as the monthly average Newspoll Preferred Prime Minister rating.
Between the 7th and 11th month in office – Oct 96 to March 97 for Howard and June to November 08 for Rudd – the TPP vote of the two governments tracked each other pretty well with the honeymoon of each slowly fading. Yet by May of 97 (the Rudd equivalent being January 2009), the Howard government vote lead had effectively disappeared.
During that May, the budget was delivered, Howard attacked Hanson for the first time in his Asia-Australia Society speech, the Native Title ‘Ten Point Plan’ was being spruiked, the Reconciliation Convention happened and both Howard and Costello put the possibility of a GST on the table – quite a busy month all up!
Yet, while the vote estimates of the two governments tracked each other for a good period, the Preferred PM rating is an entirely different story. That stark contrast also comes out in the satisfaction rating comparisons.
Rudd currently has a satisfaction rating 24 points higher than Howard enjoyed at the comparable period of his first term, with that gap likely to widen this month. One might think that the Opposition had something to do with Howard’s decline and Rudd’s current ascendancy, but a quick squiz at the Opposition Leader’s satisfaction rating front soon puts that notion to rest. Beazley wasn’t really doing anything during 96 and 97 – just bouncing along in the low to mid 40’s – but the Turnbull leadership change has massively boosted the satisfaction numbers for the Opposition while simultaneously losing them vote share.
Rudd is definitely a far more popular Prime Minister than Howard was during his first year in office, he’s enjoying much higher satisfaction ratings than Howard, is experiencing much higher overall polling numbers on the two party preferred front, is a more preferred Prime Minister compared to their respective oppositions – yet where Rudd’s current opposition of Malcolm Turnbull is experiencing far higher satisfaction ratings than Howard’s opposition of Kim Beazley.
6 Comments
I wonder if Howard’s history pre-PM had anything to do with how he was perceived (approval ratings) once he got the top job?
Previously in government he’d been Treasurer from 1975-83. Under Treasurer Howard Australia suffered the worst recession since the Great Depression, with unemployment, inflation and interest rates all at double digits simultaneously. He is the only Treasurer in history to have presided over all three indicators in double digits at the same time. Christian Kerr made this point at Crikey on 27 June 2007
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070627-Why-John-Howard-never-made-the-cover-of-Euromoney.html
As Alan Ramsey noted in Sydney Morning Herald, 9 June 2007:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/a-devil-of-a-time-if-you-look-closely/2007/06/08/1181089330756.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
It was as Treasurer that his reputation for dishonesty started to grow. The famous “fistful of dollars” tax cuts promise at the 1977 election was followed by two tax hikes in 1978 and 1979 thanks to the special “income tax levy”.
There’s quite an interesting article on Treasurer Howard’s economic record at The Canberra Times, 9 April 2007:
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/howards-record-as-treasurer-questioned/573574.html
There seems to be a sub-plot here with rising satisfaction for both the government and the opposition. Have we become a little less cynical about our politicians? Perhaps the complex issues of our time – global financial crisis and climate change – illustrates the necessity of managerial politics. And maybe our current crop are slightly more honest about being managers rather than ideologues.
It’s a good point El Nino – back in 1996/7 most of the issues of the time were pretty polarising in nature – Native Title, gun laws, reconciliation, the GST, the waterfront etc with One Nation hanging around lighting fires as well.
Today, despite a financial crisis – it all seems pretty calm.
Or maybe it’s because the two parties are so alike that they really are interchangeable.. and it just depends on the boredom factor.
I can’t believe you wrote all of that without mentioning Rudd’s satisfaction numbers went up at the precise time he promised to give everyone a cheque for $1000. Howard meantime was making decisions he knew not everyone would like. Even the ALPs approach to the pulp mill has been soft.
You don’t really think Rudd’s popularity is comparable to Howard’s on any meaningful measure other than a failure to make real (controversial) decisions, do you?