I grew up in Aston too and I doubt Labor are a serious chance to win unless there is an utter landslide. If anything, Aston is moving further away from Labor- it was a marginal during the 80’s but has been held by the Libs since 1990. Areas like Rowville used to be the end of the earth; now they’re filled with expensive new houses. It’s now an affluent and fairly religious electorate. And most local state seats are Liberal held despite Labor winning easily in 2006.

If Victoria has a redistribution before the election, it’s possible Aston could get pushed out of Forest Hill/Heathmont and further into Bayswater/Boronia, which would make it more marginal (as well as being more logical geographically). But under normal circumastances I’d be very surprised if Labor won it.

LOL

Antony you would feel very uncomfortable there with your emphasis on accuracy and your prediliction for comparing like with like.

Also, I predict that, irrespective of the national polls, Aston will fall to Labor at the next election. Yes, it has been a safe (and in 2004 a very, very safe) liberal seat but that was because of an unpopular state labor decision, not a genuine conservative lean.

I shoulld apply for a job at Quadrant.

Aston is still pretty high at over 60% of people not changing houses in the previous 5 years – probably reflecting, as you say, it’s history as the mortgage belt king. Some of the outer metro Brisbane seats will probably go the same way over the next two elections once all the Greenfield housing sites fill up.

I think you should check the housing tenure data. It says that 87% of Aston residents were at the same address at the 2001 and 2006 census compared to 80% of Victorians and just over 50% of all Australians. The figure for Aston is extraordinarily high given the AEC rule of thumb that a quarter to a third of voters change address in a three year electoral cycle. And the difference between Victorians and Australians overall seems very odd. The NSW figure would have to be under 50% for that to be true.

It also shows how times change. Aston was THE mortgage belt electorate around 1990, consistently with the highest home purchase rate in the country, but the area has progressed through the suburban life cycle and more people now own their property.

I was also mystified by the bi-polar age graph at first. I was wondering if the baby bonus had had that much effect on the birth rate until I realised the 15-19 and 20-24 age groups were the only 5 year categories.