Today’s seat of the day is the Victorian inner metro seat of Batman, which currently has the distinction of being the safest ALP seat in the country.
2007 Election Result and Two Party Preferred History
| Party | LP | ALP | GRN | NP | FFP | OTH |
| 07 Primary | 20.64 | 57.18 | 17.17 | 0 | 2.62 | 2.4 |
Age Profile, Family Composition, Housing and Migration
The final three categories in that last chart measure the proportion of the population that had the same address in 2001 as they did in 2006, the proportion of the population that moved location between 2001 and 2006 but moved locally (that is, moved houses within their Local Statistical Area – an ABS geographical category based on local government boundaries), and the proportion of the population that moved houses between 2001 and 2006, but moved from outside of their local area. Those last three stats gives us an idea of the size of the population growth/churn going on in a seat.
Income and Employment
Please note: Centrelink data is from 2008 and comes from the Dept of Human Services website.
Map comes from the Australian Electoral Commission.
All other data derives from the 2006 Census.
2 Comments
Possum, what do you think about Greens prospects in this seat? The Liberals are only 3.5% ahead of the Greens, and if the Greens overtake the Liberals the seat’s margin would become much more marginal, ala Melbourne. Of course, Ferguson on 57% is fine if his primary vote stays there, but if it falls a little bit, this seat could be interesting, particularly if the Liberals remain performing abysmally.
Whaddya think?
To be honest Ben, somewhere between Buckleys and None.
Labor would have to lose well over ten percent of it’s primary vote, with most of it going to the Greens, just for them to be in with a chance.
But then the problem would be harvesting nearly 100% of preferences from the Libs.
I couldn’t see that happening – even with the perfect candidate. There’s just too big an ideological and political divide between the conservative 60+ age cohort and the Greens brand.