Comments on: Seat of the Day: Batman http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/01/14/seat-of-the-day-batman/ Politics, elections and piffle plinking Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:16:08 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Possum http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/01/14/seat-of-the-day-batman/comment-page-1/#comment-11769 Possum Thu, 22 Jan 2009 06:36:12 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3375#comment-11769 To be honest Ben, somewhere between Buckleys and None. Labor would have to lose well over ten percent of it's primary vote, with most of it going to the Greens, just for them to be in with a chance. But then the problem would be harvesting nearly 100% of preferences from the Libs. I couldn't see that happening - even with the perfect candidate. There's just too big an ideological and political divide between the conservative 60+ age cohort and the Greens brand. To be honest Ben, somewhere between Buckleys and None.

Labor would have to lose well over ten percent of it’s primary vote, with most of it going to the Greens, just for them to be in with a chance.

But then the problem would be harvesting nearly 100% of preferences from the Libs.

I couldn’t see that happening – even with the perfect candidate. There’s just too big an ideological and political divide between the conservative 60+ age cohort and the Greens brand.

]]> By: Ben Raue http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/01/14/seat-of-the-day-batman/comment-page-1/#comment-11767 Ben Raue Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:41:30 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=3375#comment-11767 Possum, what do you think about Greens prospects in this seat? The Liberals are only 3.5% ahead of the Greens, and if the Greens overtake the Liberals the seat's margin would become much more marginal, ala Melbourne. Of course, Ferguson on 57% is fine if his primary vote stays there, but if it falls a little bit, this seat could be interesting, particularly if the Liberals remain performing abysmally. Whaddya think? Possum, what do you think about Greens prospects in this seat? The Liberals are only 3.5% ahead of the Greens, and if the Greens overtake the Liberals the seat’s margin would become much more marginal, ala Melbourne. Of course, Ferguson on 57% is fine if his primary vote stays there, but if it falls a little bit, this seat could be interesting, particularly if the Liberals remain performing abysmally.

Whaddya think?

]]>