Comments on: How to Lose an Election in 27 Easy Steps

By: David Jackmanson

David Jackmanson — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 07:21:43 +0000

Just because the political party One Nation self-destructed, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t potential political support for a rural populist movement that is hostile to the “official” rural party. One Nation didn’t exist in early 1996 and then in 1998 won a quarter of the vote in Queensland. It’s important not to confuse the political incompetence of the One Nation MPs and party officials with the waning of support for a conservative-populist pro-rural agenda.

Bob Katter still holds down a Federal seat in Queensland, in what should be solid-gold LNP country – no doubt he attracts a lot of voters who normally vote National/LNP and who would be open to voting for One Nation if its leadership hadn’t proved useless.

If the LNP want to avoid another populist uprising on their right flank they DO have to actively attract the votes of populist rural conservatives. If those conservatives feel that the LNP is not representing their interests *they will join or start another party or independent movement*. They WON’T just vote for the Nats automatically, as the examples I gave in my previous comment indicate.

This means that Springborg’s problem is not (necessarily) one of mere political incompetence which could be fixed by an adjustment in strategy. He is boxed in structurally and has *no possible* winning strategy.

By: Possum

Possum — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:18:23 +0000

There’s currently no One Nation in Qld – that threat came and went, so the rural vote is once again the Nats base and as long as Springborg doesn’t say anything to grossly alienate them they’ll vote for the Nats as they usually do.

But he doesn’t need to pander to them to get their vote.

Everytime he does, he clips votes off urban Liberals. I don’t think he’s got a chance of winning regardless, unless some dramatic event happens between now and Election day – but he risks gaining zero ground by pandering to his base when he doesn’t need to.

By: David Jackmanson

David Jackmanson — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:05:40 +0000

While I agree with your analysis of the tension between the two types of potential LNP voters, rural conservatives and urban liberals, I’m astounded that anyone could say after the history of the last fifteen years that the rural voters are “his [Springborg's] base which he doesn’t need (since they all vote for him anyway)”

What about Pauline Hanson and One Nation? What about Bob Katter? What about Tony Windsor, Robert Oakeshott and Peter Andren? All these people (and one party) have taken “natural” National/LNP seats away from the Nationals/LNP because the voters in those areas see the modern National Party/LNP as nothing better than “Liberals wearing Akubras”.

Even if Springborg were the most competent political strategist who ever lived, good strategy can’t do much to bring together two irreconcilable types of voter. Do you seriously think that if Springborg could win Government just by appealing to urban liberals and taking rural conservatives for granted, he wouldn’t be doing that right now?

By: steve

steve — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 13:11:41 +0000

As a contrast, the Greens focus on Reproductive health,

http://qld.greens.org.au/policies/Qld-policies/reproductive-health

and Labor weigh in with its policy work one would expect from a party in Government.

http://www.towardq2.qld.gov.au/library/pdf/tomorrow/Towards_Q2_Tomorrows_Queensland.pdf

By: steve

steve — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 12:26:23 +0000

I just love the indepth work the Liberal National Party have done on policies. Springborg has been in Parliament for something like nineteen or twenty years now and this is his fresh, new, nineteen year old Health Policy of the Liberal National Party.

http://www.springborg.com/policy/lawrence-policy/a-world-class-health-system.html

Inspiring in both the breath and depth of detail.

By: Possum

Possum — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 07:59:23 +0000

LO, you’ve got to see it up close to believe it!

It really is astonishing.

By: Labor Outsider

Labor Outsider — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 07:34:09 +0000

Great post!

By: jenny sams

jenny sams — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 03:34:32 +0000

The Nats just don’t get it, soon they will be like the rump that makes up the Nats in the Feds. That motor bike stunt of Springers was plain silly, in a time when the economy is slip sliding around we have a leader promising a trail bike track to no-where so we don’t have to put up with hoons. Typical Nats stuff, law and order, lock ‘em up and throw away the key. yeah that will get us voted in, just like the old days. The Nats love the old days, the good old days
and Springers leads them back there everytime.

By: Barnaby Bjeke-Petersen « No fun in public!

Barnaby Bjeke-Petersen « No fun in public! — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 02:12:04 +0000

...] Luckily, even if Barnaby runs into some strife (perhaps an assasination attempt which, while not hoping it eventuautes, I do hope he has filmed a Pauline Hanson-style video for) Lawrence will be watching out for us. [...

By: Mark Bahnisch

Mark Bahnisch — Thu, 15 Jan 2009 01:13:29 +0000

Heh.

Great post, Possum!