Comments on: The Liberal Party Left Flank

By: Bree

Bree — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 14:40:43 +0000

The most talked about topic after the 1996 federal election was the Labor Party ending up with only one lower-house seat in Queensland. No body expected the Coalition to win 27 out of 28 seats in Queensland.

By: Swing Lowe

Swing Lowe — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 05:56:46 +0000

I would think Warringah (like Mackellar) would be less susceptible to the movement outlined by Possum in his post. This is because these seats tend to be more socially conservative than seats like North Sydney and Wentworth as:

1. There are less immigrants in these seats (and far fewer NESBs)
2. There are fewer yuppies and more elderly people in these seats

An example of this is the fact that Nth Sydney, Bradfield and Wentworth all voted for the Republic but Mackellar was one of the few blue-blood seats that voted against it. I’m not sure what happened in Warringah but I would suspect it would have been a close-run thing.

By: Andrew Elder

Andrew Elder — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 04:54:57 +0000

I think the seats that will become hotly-contested marginals are those with high tertiary-education demographics – not just what are now safe Liberal seats but also inner-city Labor seats. I don’t agree with the whole History Is On Our Side thing as, NSW shows clearly, Labor can’t necessarily make the best use of political advantage.

Possum, fredn: thank you. I’ve posted more on this topic on my newly-linked site.

Bree: depends on the candidate. Sometimes parties have a knack of picking candidates who secrete voter repellent. This is what happened in Canning (WA), which was contested for the Liberal Party at no less than six elections by a candidate with no qualities other than being a favourite of powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne. This candidate lost five times – 1984, 1998, 1990, 1993, 1998 – and won only in 1996, the third-best result for the Liberals in history. It is possible for Labor to keep on losing Macarthur with the wrong candidate (imagine if Belinda Neal had preferred the Southern Highlands over the Central Coast).

Thewetmale: Alex Hawke is MP for Mitchell, you’re thinking of Noel McCoy. What’s funny about that is the far-right used to insist on people with real-world experience, i.e. no political hacks – Ruddock has been an MP since age 30, Hawke has only ever been on the public purse (just like Bill Clinton or Gorbachev), and now McCoy is lined up to become unrepresentative for Berowra.

By: Harry "Snapper" Organs

Harry "Snapper" Organs — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 11:35:02 +0000

Jeez, David Richards, why would you you use wise and Turnbull in the same sentence? As for Julie Bishop, mathematically challenged is being kind.

By: David Richards

David Richards — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 06:05:04 +0000

In light of the demographic train-wreck facing the Libs, and the high ratings given to Whitlam by younger voters in the PM survey, was it wise for Turnbull to throw Whitlam at Rudd the other day?

By: David Richards

David Richards — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 05:47:18 +0000

So.. a very clever Liberal Party WOULD move to the left enough to grab greens preferences. Seeing as Clever Liberal Party is an oxymoron, it won’t happen.

By: Catherine Flick

Catherine Flick — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 05:13:10 +0000

I’d be interested to see how Warringah fits in there, being right next door to North Sydney and a safe Liberal seat!

By: Bree

Bree — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 02:42:06 +0000

Thanks for the reply, Possum. I will be watching Macarthur with a fine-tooth comb at the next election no matter what.

By: Possum

Possum — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 01:59:19 +0000

UPDATE: I’ve added a new chart that tries to answer the question of which party has been taking the Liberal votes.

Fmark,

Good question.The ALP can shift to right more safely than the Liberal Party can shift to the left since Greens voters overwhelmingly preference the ALP. As long as the ALP is perceived to remain to the left of the Liberal Party that preference flow from the greens to the ALP would probably continue one would imagine.

Bree,
Don’t know about Macarthur. The YRAW campaign made a big effort their in 2007 and helped increase the ALP vote larger than it probably otherwise wuld have been, the incumbent member seems to be trying to do everything he can to piss of the local electorate, a poor NSW economy hits people in seats like Macarthur harder than most other places – there’s a big grab bag of things that happened or is happening in the seat.

El Nino,
Similar Victorian seats like Higgins, Menzies etc are suffering the same sort of thing on average, but it’s a pretty small effect compared to the NSW seats and Ryan – only really a few percent over the last 10 years or so.

By: El Nino

El Nino — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 01:24:44 +0000

fmark, it appears that if anything demographically the Greens are eroding the left flank of the Liberals (albeit in part via Democrat defections).
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/12/24/tough-demographic-choices-for-the-greens/
In my experience, Green preferences usually split more or less in TPP proportions in many seats.

Poss, why no Victorian seats in your analysis? Is an alternative hypothesis that the nexus of power for the Liberals is moving to southern (warmer) climes, maybe being the least hopeless of the main eastern seaboard branches.