Newspoll: Turnbull Flame Out Edition

In a slight change from the usual proceedings, Newspoll Monday brings us primary votes running 48 (ALP up 5)/ 36 (LNP down 3) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred running 58/42 the same way (ALP up 4).

This comes from a sample of 1133 giving us an MoE around the 3.0% mark.

Vote estimates go up and down, but the real action is in the satisfaction ratings, as we were saying the other day regarding his stand on the stimulus package:

So keep an eye on the personal ratings of Turnbull over the next few months rather than the vote estimates- for that is where the real action will be. Once those personal ratings tank, they simply dont come back – and you can’t win a Federal election when you’re in negative net approval territory.

Going to the charts we get:

Rudd’s satisfaction ratings didn’t move outside of the margin of error – his dissatisfaction level up one and the uncommitted/undecideds down 1. Turnbull on the other hand suffered quite a slap.

The leader of the Opposition’s satisfaction rating only moved down 1 point to 44 (a nothing movement) – but his actions last week have crystalised his undecideds against him. Those uncommitteds/undecideds were running at 24 last poll, but compressed down to 18 this poll. At the same time his dissatisfaction rating went up 8 points from 31 to 38.  A 7 point movement in the wrong direction, 6 points of which came from people that were formally undecided about Turnbull.

Turnbull has lost 25% of his uncommitted voters in a single polling cycle and, on net, they have all moved against him.

If we look at the net satisfaction ratings where we calculate the figures with and without the undecideds, we get:

These undecideds breaking against Turnbull are quite important on longer term vote estimates. Vote estimates are made by pollsters encouraging people to provide an answer. It’s not quite a forced choice response where the only possible options are Party A, B or C – but they encourage an answer by including “leaning” voters. For instance, Newspoll asks:

IF A FEDERAL ELECTION FOR THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES WAS HELD TODAY, WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? IF “UNCOMMITTED”, TO WHICH ONE OF THESE DO YOU HAVE A LEANING?

By adding the “leaning” component, the true level of undecided voters is reduced in the published polling figures – so it increases the size of the notorious “soft vote” in the vote estimates. People with uncertainty over which party they would vote for end up being treated the same as those people with complete 100% certainty. Currently Newspoll has undecided voters running at 5% and 2% of voters refused to answer the question or were otherwise excluded because of their peculiar answers (That 2% probably has a fair chunk of what’s called the “shy tory” effect, where the majority of it will end up with the Coalition come an election)

So what “hardens” the soft vote up into a hard, more certain vote?

Historically, the “hardening” correlates strongly with net satisfaction ratings – especially as we enter an election campaign.

As the undecideds break in the net satisfaction/net approval ratings, so too do they harden for or against the leader in question in the vote etimates, with people being more unlikely to change their vote once they’ve decided that they are dissatisfied with a given leaders performance. Also worth noting is that once a leader gets an inverted approval rating – where a larger proportion of the population become dissatisfied with their performance than are satisfied – they rarely recover and the primary vote estimates end up plateauing.

Inverted approval ratings are usually an electoral death sentence. When the light blue and red lines in that last chart are below their respective dark red and blue lines (as they were with Brendan Nelson) it’s even more the case as it tells us that the undecideds are actually holding the overall net approval ratings for a leader up artificially.

For the ALP that isnt a large a problem as it is for the Libs because the ALP often lose their primary to the Greens and it flows back to them fairly strongly in two party preferred preferences. But with the Coalition and the absence of a conservative minor party where disallusioned conservative voters can park their primary vote – it is a much more significant problem.

Turnbull has seen his undecideds break against him, his net satisfaction ratings are heading towards negative territory and when the reduction in the size of the undecideds on the sat ratings is combined with the vote estimates moving against him, it gives him a much reduced potential to get those votes he’s lost back.

Turnbull is flaming out before our eyes. While the vote estimates might bounce around a bit with usual volatility – those satisfaction ratings are slowly nailing his coffin shut, and the LNP’s chances of an election victory with.

UPDATE:

Additional questions Newspoll asked and their results:

Elsewhere: Poll Bludger, Larvatus Prodeo , Mumble , Grog’s Gamut