Yesterday’s mystery charts were the bi-annual Newspoll results of living standards expectations. Every 6 months or so Newspoll asks the following question:
THINKING NOW ABOUT YOUR STANDARD OF LIVING. DO YOU BELIEVE YOUR STANDARD OF LIVING IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE?
They not only provide the total results, but break those results down by voting intention, giving us an insight into the different expectations of Labor and Coalition voters when it comes to how they see their standards of living changing over the short term.
This is what yesterday’s charts look like without the fudged information.
It’s interesting how political identification impacts on short term expectations on quality of life (which living standards effectively are). When the government of the day is the party you vote for, you are (on average) more optimistic about your living standards regardless of what else may be going on in the world. Similarly, if the party you vote for is in opposition, you are more likely to be pessimistic about your living standards – and this is true for both ALP and Coalition supporters.
However the size of both the optimism and the pessimism is significantly larger for Coalition voters than ALP voters. Coalition voters appear to believe the government of the day has a much larger bearing on their short term future living standards than do Labor voters.
Which leads to the obvious question – why?
Tomorrow, Nerdy Sunday returns with a really interesting theory on how voters behave in Federal election campaigns – one that holds for every election since 1993 – and how that information can be used to build projections into our Pollytrend and Pollytrack series.
19 Comments
the reason coalition voters believe the government of the day has more impact on their prospects… stupidity
As much fun as it is to think coalition voters are always stupid, I’d imagine the reason has more to do with the beliefs of Coalition and Labor voters on the use and role of government.
Small government ideologues aren’t going to believe the government will be able to make things better for them.
It doesn’t surprise me at all. I’ve lived a long life and worked with many people of many political persuasions and heard it all.
Many Lib voters I’ve encountered are really anti-Labor fixated voters – would/could not vote Labor EVER – and an egregious Lib govt is still preferable. Indeed the Libs are often a choice by default with some of these folk. I don’t like the local member and the Govt is not doing a great job – but I simply can’t vote Labor.
This mindset is not as strong with Labor voters, as they would more likely vote FOR Labor, not against the conservatives. This is borne out by public demonstrations over the years, both State and Federally, when Labor (Govt) policy is unpopular. It is clear also that large numbers of these protesters would be Lab supporters.
Labor voters are not fixated on being anti-Conservative in anything like the numbers on the other side.
Howard’s battlers anyone?
So the proportion of “never/ever under any circumstances give the other side any comfort” leans noticeably to the Conservative side.
These results were entirely predictable.
Chris.. but if they don’t believe government will make things better… how can they think government will make things worse? Strange kind of logic there. If it can’t do X, it can’t do Y. Despite their small government rhetoric – the opposite is true of Lib governments. It’s just that they have different priorities to ALP governments (like doubling the defence budget in peacetime, fighting other people’s wars, setting up huge bureacracies to spy on and harass ‘the other’)
Logic?
You want logic?
As in consistent application of reason and evidence?
Blimey, you expect a lot.
[Not meant to be snarky, just an observation].
which goes to show they are irrational and delusional, and should be sectioned.
Interesting Spidermonkey, my experience is that it’s the other way around. As a result, I guess, of being sneered at by rich kids in childhood I’ve grown up with an anti-Tory fixation and would never, ever vote Liberal, even with a gun to my head. And I know a lot of people like me. Fundamentally I just don’t think you can be a Tory and a human being. However I notice that Tories are prepared to recognise even quite lowly people (irony) as “good sorts” if they behave themselves. Paul Keating for example, how much more Tory lickspittle can you get? Rudd ditto.
BTW, I’m a Green who, if I lived in marginal seat and it was close, might be persuaded to preference Labor second.
Strange is the proportion of ALP voters that believe their living standards will improve. It’s been remarkably consistent for 8 years.Even the GFC didnt knock them around much.
Coalition voters just fell off a cliff.
It’s not that different to the ALP voting pessimists. That number has been trending flat for the whole 8 years, whereas the LNP voters started a pretty vigorous round of wrist slashing once Rudd was voted in.
It partially explains why the Coalition keep up the line about Labor governments not being trusted – their base seems to beleive it.
Mind you – this is also some pretty extraordinary evidence that when the Coalition talks down the economy, it flows through into their supporters.
coalition voters do seem to fall in line and sing whatever song the party is singing, moreso than ALP voters, who are more inclined to disagree with the ALP party line
Possum,
It’s pathological. There is no such thing as a sanity pause for the Lib rusted ons.
I would suggest on average there are more small business owners who vote Liberal. If economic growth rises or drops it is small businesses who will feel it first and to the biggest degree. It therefore makes sense for there to be more volatility on this question from Liberal supporters. I would also suggest the drop in confidence when Labor took government may have been due to the GFC rather than Labor.
I’d agree. Had the drop in confidence been a purely Australian phenomenon, it would have been reasonable to attribute it to the change of government. However, it was (and continues to be) a global trend, suggesting the obvious: that the GFC is behind tumbling confidence.
Though that’s not how the Liberal rusted-ons on blogs and talkback would have the audience see it. According to them, everything changed because we elected a different party to government. Phooey! Either they’re not very perceptive, or they’re not very honest. Probably both.
hear hear cuppa – to listen to the Lib parrots squawking, you’d think the rest of the world was happily chugging away and Australia is the only one staring the grim reaper in the face.
David, given how ardently they idolise someone who even Liberals call a Lying Rodent, it’s not surprising they emulate his worst character trait. Imitation being the sincerest form of flattery.
In a recession, those people who keep their jobs can often have higher living standards. Interest rates are dropping, and so if your job is secure, you will have more money to spend if you have a mortgage. If not, you’re able to buy a more expensive house than you otherwise might have. This isn’t an attempt to explain the above graphs though. Simply, some people are determined to believe that the Coalition are better economic managers (whatever that’s supposed to mean) than Labor. The evidence does not support this assessment, but when was the last time evidence had an impact on voting patterns?
I am trying for a hypothesis here.
Who, from ALP or COALition supporters, has more direct and indirect dealings with governments, local state and federal?
I’m suggesting that COALition voters are more connected via their businesses, farms etc, than ALP voters are. I know that is buying into what may be a stereotype but I’m suggesting that typical COALition voters are more likely to be self employed, managers, business persons and even owners, in contrast to ALP voters who are more likely to be [yes I know many are professional class and public servants] wage and salary earners.
So when the government is COALition, generally regarded as business friendly, the COALition voters are happy, when it is not they are not.
And this explains the higher correlation than with ALP types because the COALition voters are more directly involved, related and effected by government.
Not just personally but through their organizations and ‘unions’ etc..
Imagine list of such.
ALP style organizations, unions for example, are in more of a confrontational mode, whoever forms govt..
Hmmm?
I’m more curious to know the response of ALP voters to this question pre- and post-1996. If it is the case that voters associate beliefs about living standards with the government of the day (and I admit that’s a big if), then we would expect to see shifts occuring when there is a change of government (fear of the unknown??). However, they probably adjust once the new government gets a chance to actually govern. Note the upswing in Coalition response as well in the last 2 quarters.
By 2001, when the series starts, we see that the position of Labor voters is largely stabilised, following any change in their perceptions after the election of the Howard government. So I wonder if you’d see a similar pattern among Labor voters from early 1995 through to 1997. Possum, any data?
Of course, this doesn’t explain the “lack of response” among Labor voters post Dec-07. But maybe this is a case of people have a greater concern over losing something than gaining – maybe a political endowment effect?
Unfortunately Steve, the Newspoll data only goes back to 2001. It would have been good to look at over the 95-97 political changeover.