The Oz brings us another Newspoll with the primaries running 44(down 2)/36 (steady) to Labor, washing through to a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way (ALP down 2). This came from a sample of 1152 for an MoE or around the 2.9% mark. 5% were Uncommitted and 2% Refused/Excluded.
We’ll throw the usual charts in at the bottom, but before we get to them it might be worth having a look at the results of a three way “Better Prime Minister” question that Newspoll ran between Rudd, Turnbull and Costello.
Costello is more popular than Turnbull, and both either individually or collectively are the non-preferred Prime Minister. Changing the paint will not solve the Coalition’s problems despite the continued agitation from The Oz.
Back to the charts:
Turnbull seems to have slowed down or flattened out the post-Christmas decline in his net-satisfaction ratings, although if you look at the way voters become dissatisfied with him, it happens in big dollops of 5 to 8 percent lots, with a pretty flat line between those events. Turnbull is only one more of those episodes away from having an inverted satisfaction rating – or more people dissatisfied than satisfied with his performance -which is usually the kiss of political death.
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So if Costello did take over would you expect the PPM to be 54-37? What % of the MT support would go to PC, and what % would go to “undecided”?
Obviously Costello would get a “bump” (though I thought the same of Turnbull). Would be interesting to speculate on what Costello’s net satisfaction rating would be… any data from PJK’s time as new PM – a pretty decivice figure as well – so no doubt strong satisfied AND dissatisfied numbers I’d imagine?
I predict that the L/NP will let Turnbull’s political corpse dangle in the wind until after he loses the 2010 election. It is then probable that Costello will take the poisoned chalice in early 2011.
He will have his work cut out winning the 2013 election. Rudd-ALP look like a three term government to me. But if he makes a decent dent in the govts standing at his first innings then he may be allowed to stay on past 2013.
Life is going to be tough for the L/NP as demography is running against it. This anti-L/NP trend is running on both cohort and clan lines.
Older Baby Boomer have an ingrained anti-L/NP prejudice owing to exposure to this form of psephological radiation at an early impressionable age. It will not be until 2045 that the last born of the Baby Boomer cohort (c1945-65) dies off.
And then there is immigration. The ratio of NESB/ESB immigrants is starting to run at over .50. It is inevitable that NESB’s will trend to the ALP as they will be lower SES to begin with. But even as they move up the SES ladder they do not drift into the L/NP camp.
Its hard to forgive L/NP-tending whitey for being top-dog.