This week’s Essential Report has the primaries running 49 (down 1)/35 (steady) to Labor, washing out for a TPP of 58/42 – down 2 from last week. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1918 for an MoE around the 2.2% mark.
The additional questions this week focused on the global financial crisis and it’s perceived management by the major parties – with a question on Costello as this week’s piece of mischief making. These additional questions come with a sample size of 1041 for an MoE of around 3.1%.
On the cross-tabs Essential says:
Coalition voters were more likely think that Australia’s current economic situation will affect some people but things will start to improve this year (25%), while Labor voters were more likely to think that it will affect a lot of people and will not improve for a couple of years (53%).
Males were more likely to think that Australia’s current economic situation will affect some people but things will start to improve this year (23%), while females were more likely to think that it will affect a lot of people and will not improve for a couple of years (51%).
On the cross-tabs we have:
Labor voters were most likely to think that the Government has been sufficiently bold and strong given the nature of the economic crisis facing Australia (77%) while Coalition voters were most likely to think that the Government has involved a whole array of unnecessary policies that will waste a lot of money and not serve any useful purpose (62%).
Respondents aged 50 years and over were more likely than those in other age groups to think that the Government has involved a whole array of unnecessary policies so far in dealing with the global financial crisis and these will waste a lot of money and not serve any useful purpose (43%).
Next up we have a couple of questions on management of the GFC and trust. The first doesn’t come with any cross tab info, the second we can also track the result of the responses over time.
On the cross-tabs for the latter question we get:
92% of Labor voters trust Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party when it comes to handling the economy during the financial crisis, compared with only 69% of Coalition voters that trust Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal Party.
On the cross-tabs, Essential says:
People’s opinion of the performance of the Government and the Opposition in regards to the global financial crisis tended to follow party lines; however voter disapproval with their own party is higher amongst Coalition voters. 27% of Coalition voters strongly disapprove/disapprove of the Opposition’s performance in regard to the global financial crisis while only 5% of Labor voters strongly disapprove/disapprove of the Government’s performance in regard to the global financial crisis.
Finally, this week’s mischief making question.
On the cross-tabs we get:
43% of Coalition voters think that Peter Costello is either undermining or preparing to challenge the Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull while 36% of Coalition voters think Peter Costello is making a valuable contribution to political debate.
66% of Labor voters think that Peter Costello is either undermining or preparing to challenge the Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull while only 9% of Labor voters think Peter Costello is making a valuable contribution to political debate.
15 Comments
As the economy worsens, the electoral pendulum is slowly swinging Costello’s way. Will Rudd call an early election this year to finish off Turnbull? If the latter occurs, it means Costello will only have to wait until 2012 to take on Rudd.
Come on, Bree, a little more intellectual rigour to your partisan barracking, please.
The earliest that Rudd can call an election for both houses of parliament is 7th August, 2010. Check this article by Antony Green: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/02/an-early-federa.html
As to the “electoral pendulum” swinging towards Peter Costello… I think that you might be reading a little too much into some inconsequential qualitative polling there.
The individual polls are interesting, but i tend to look at the Pollytrend graph to the right of the page. While the ALP consistently has a margin of over 10% i really don’t think that there is anything for the Libs to take comfort from.
Looks like Costello is annoying a significant minority of the Libs supporters (43%) while only the rusted-ons (36%) think well of him.
Ok, so work that out based on the overall TPP result of 58/42 and the figures quoted for the crosstabs result. Assume the undecideds split in the same proportion as the decided’s with a few of them still unable to make up their minds.
About 69% of the electorate think Costello is undermining Turnbull or preparing to challenge.
(not really a positive, but may be somewhat neutral depending on what people think of Malcolm and how many want to see him offski??)
About 25% of the electorate think Costello is making a valuable contribution to the political debate. So, only 25% think that he is doing something other than looking after his own political future. If you are shaping up to be the alternative PM surely you need a better image than that??
Was there ever any polling done referring to Kevin Rudd before he became leader?? Would be interesting to compare?
Still, i reckon that the best thing for the country would be for Costello to become leader of the Libs late this year. It will mean that they will remain unelectable for years giving the ALP a good 2 terms to get some decent things done under Rudd and a good chance for Gillard to either fight their third term election or become PM during their third term. Once the Libs have finally buried Costello with a stake in his heart they can really start to rebuild as a credible oppposition.
Off topic – any chance of Possum of looking at the maps from the Uni of Newcastle study on unemployment risk suburbs with electoral seats?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/17/2518123.htm
Do they tell us anything new?
’swinging Slowly’? (to correct your infinitive splitting)
geeze – glaciers move faster…
imacca, If Costello is to take on Labor with Gillard as PM, Labor would be totally wiped out. Gillard hasn’t go a clue on the economy and she isn’t popular with the electorate because of her far-left views.
Can you provide some evidence for that Bree?
Benjamin Franklin who died in 1790 is credited with this quote about insanity:
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.”
Albert Einstein who died in 1955 was also fond of using it.
The Coalition who are dying politically as we watch, are the perfect example of the quotation in action.
They have absolutely no idea what they are doing – none whatsoever!
When a political party loses an election it’s wise to identify the reasons for that loss and then address those reasons with policies and personalities that will appeal to the electorate.
So what were the reasons for the Coalition losing the 2007 Federal Election?
The most comprehensive independent research comes from the Australian Election Study conducted by Professor Ian McAllister of the Australian National University.
The three key findings of the research were:
1. Industrial relations and global warming were the biggest vote changes
2. Voters respected Mr Howard but strongly approved of Mr Rudd, giving him the highest “likeability” rating in the survey’s 20 -year history
3. The Coalition would have struggled under Mr Costello, who had poorer approval/disapproval ratings than Paul Keating.
So how has the Coalition responded?
1. By continuing to fight the ALP over industrial relations and global warming, the two issues that overwhelmingly cost them the last election.
2. Refusing to accept that after more than 2 years Kevin Rudd is still very popular, and rather than try to identify why, put it all down to a “honeymoon”.
3. Believing that Peter Costello is the answer to their ills, who will ride in on a wave of popularity, urged on by a grateful public, sweeping away the ALP in a landslide that will make 1966 and 1975 look like tight races.
What can I say? What can anyone say? Except to ask, “are they insane?”
Will await with interest any actual evidence that Costello is considered a better choice for PM than Rudd, Gillard, Swan, Tanner. Await with even more interest any evidence whatsoever, that Costello is growing a spine. He really needs to do that before anyone other than the rusted on Libs or their barely-sentient slogan generating apparatchiks will take this rather lazy man seriously.
Alas, while he is simply smirking away his time on the back bench, sharpening the knives for Malcolm, his only relevance is as a destabilizing influence on his own party. As long as that’s all he is up for why would anyone bother doing any polling that would compare Cossie’s image with that of the rest of the ALP from bench who actually seem to be doing the work for which they are paid.
Poss
Thought you’d be interested in this, especially Ziggy’s spin on the polls, which appears to be at variance with the known facts.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25203255-5006301,00.html
After Ziggy and Sol, no wonder Telstra’s in deep doodoo.
Ziggy must be on some powerful drugs if he thinks people have changed on nukes.
Grog – thanks for that, it might be worth a look later.
Dio and David, Ziggy is sort of right – we had a squiz at this in January.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/01/28/is-opinion-on-nuclear-power-changing/
Poss
He was right when he said there was a shift to nuclear but his comment that “more than half the community supported it” was wrong. You showed it was that now quite large “undecided” vote that would be critical, and could tip things to overall support.
It’s all moot anyway – Where’s the billions in construction costs per power station coming from in the current economic climate? Where’s the water coming from in the current climate climate? Where are the skilled workers coming from?
Bree, I assume you’re a Costello staffer?