Essential Report: Ruddnet China and Budget Edition

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running to the ALP 51 (down 3)/ 34 (up 2), for a two party preferred of 61/39 - the ALP dropping 2 points from the stratospheric highs of 63. This came from a 2 week rolling sample of 1833, giving a hypothetical margin of error of around the 2.3% mark.

This week’s supplementary questions are on the budget, China and the first public polling we’ve seen for Ruddnet – where the sample size is 1125 for an MoE of 3%

Kevin Rudd has rejected all tenders for the proposed national super-fast broadband project, saying they did not meet the standards required for the job. The Government will now be the major shareholder itself in partnering with the private sector to build what the Prime Minister describes as the largest ever nation building project in Australia’s history (reportedly costing $43 billion over 8 years). Do you approve or disapprove of this decision?

On the cross-tabs Essential says:

74% of Labor voters, 65% of Green voters and 35% of Coalition strongly approve/approve of the Government’s decision. 50% of Coalition voters strongly disapprove/disapprove of the Governments proposal.

In the current global financial crisis, do you think that Australia’s economy is:

The cross-tabs give us:

Respondents aged 50 years and over were more likely than those in other age groups to think that in the current global financial crisis, Australia’s economy is doing better than most other countries (69%).
Labor voters were more likely than Coalition voters to think that in the current global financial crisis, Australia’s economy is doing better than most countries (71% v 60%).

If “better than most countries” then: Why do you think Australia’s economy is better than most other countries?

On the cross-tabs, Essential says:

Labor voters were most likely to think that the actions of the Rudd Government – including the stimulus package is the reason why Australia’s economy is doing better than other countries (40%), while Coalition voters were most likely to think that the Howard Government’s handling of the economy is the reason why Australia’s economy is doing better than other countries during the global financial crisis (42%).

I was surprised that the Howard legacy seems to have faded so fast from the minds of Coalition voters.

In the upcoming Federal Government budget, would you support or oppose the following measures:

The cross-tabs tell us that Medicare is still the Australian equivalent of the the third rail of politics (i.e. touch it and you die), while self-interest rules the roost on everything else:

Older respondents were significantly more likely than younger respondents to support increasing the age pension (90% 50 years and over v 58% 18 – 24 year olds).
Coalition voters were more likely to support financial support for small business including funding to match a company’s investment, industry assistance grants, and incentives for research and development (74%). Labor voters were more likely to support axing the tax concessions on superannuation contributions for high income earners (57%).

Respondents earning $600 – $1000 per week were more likely to support axing the tax concessions on superannuation contributions for high income earners (57%) while respondents earning $1600 or more per week were more likely to oppose the axing of tax concessions on superannuation contributions for high income earners (39%).
Younger respondents were more likely than those in older age groups to oppose increasing taxes on alcohol (40% 18 – 24 year olds v 27% 50 years and over).
Respondents earning between $1000 – $1600 per week were more likely to oppose axing the tax rebate for childcare (59%). Females were more likely than males to oppose axing the tax rebate for childcare (58% v 46%).

Do you think a country’s human rights record should or should not have any influence on whether Australia conducts business or trade with that county?

The cross-tabs say:

82% of Green voters, 70% of Labor voters and 68% of Coalition voters think that a country’s human rights record should have an influence on whether Australia conducts business or trade with that country.
Females were slightly more likely than males to think that a country’s human rights record should have an influence on whether Australia conducts business or trade with that country (70% v 65%).
Respondents aged 50 years and over were more likely than those in other age groups to think that a country’s human rights record should have an influence on whether Australia conducts business or trade with that country (73%).

Do you think China’s human rights record is:

On the cross-tabs Essential says:

Green voters were more likely than both Labor and Coalition voters to think that China’s human rights record is much worse than most countries (60% Green v 40% Labor and 44% Coalition).
Respondents aged 50 years and over were more likely than those in other age groups to think that China’s human rights record is no worse than some other countries (19%).

UPDATE:

In response to some questions asked in comments, Andrew Bunn, Research Director for Essential Media Communications drops in to say:

Hi Scott,

Just a couple of things in response to comments on your blog.

Steve has suggested that our numbers don’t seem to add up. This is mainly due to the “don’t knows” on the voting intention question. Many of these respondents also say “don’t know” to other questions which pulls down both the “agree” and the “disagree” overall percentages.

With regards Essential Media’s political agenda/bias – yes, we have been described as “left wing spin doctors” but we don’t spin our results. In fact we publish all our results even if they are contrary to our own interests or the interests of our clients – and on occasion they have been. Our choice of questions is often influenced by our own political interests but we do try to ask balanced questions – because we actually want to know the answers.

Andrew