Essential Report – Pre-Budget Edition

Today’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 50 (up 3) /33 (down 4) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a 4 point jump to Labor from last week’s result. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1984, for an MoE of around the 2.2% mark.

This week’s supplementary questions look at budget expectations, climate change and Afghanistan – these come from a sample of 1102 for an MoE around the 3% mark.

The Federal budget will be announced next Tuesday. Do you expect that the budget will be good or bad for you personally, or will it have no impact on you?

On the cross-tabs, Essential says:

Older respondents were more likely than younger respondents to think that the upcoming budget will be bad for them personally (39% 50 + year olds v 23% 18 – 24 year olds).
Labor voters were more likely than Coalition voters to think that the upcoming Federal budget will be very good/good for them personally (31% Labor v 5% Coalition). 66% of Coalition voters think the upcoming Federal budget will be very bad/bad for them.
Respondents earning $600 per week or less were more likely than those in other income groups to think that the upcoming Federal budget will be good/very good for them (23%).

From July the Government is due to honour its election promise to introduce tax cuts for those on higher incomes – in view of the current economic situation, do you think the Government should introduce those tax cuts or should they be deferred?

The cross tabs tell us:

Labor voters were more likely than Coalition voters to think that in view of the current economic situation, the Government should defer the
introduction of tax cuts for those on high incomes (53% Labor v 48% Coalition).
Older respondents were more likely than younger respondents to think that the Government should defer the introduction of tax cuts for those on high incomes (57% 50 + years v 43% 18 – 24 year olds).
There were no significant differences across income groups about whether the tax cuts for high income earners should be deferred given the current economic situation.

The Government has announced changes to its emissions trading scheme to combat climate change. These changes include delaying introduction of the scheme until 2011, reducing the cost of carbon emissions, and setting higher targets for reduction if other countries do the same. Do you approve or disapprove of these changes?

Essential says on the cross-tabs:

56% of Labor voters and 55% of Coalition voters approve of the recent Government announcement regarding change to the emissions trading scheme. 65% of Green voters disapprove of the Government’s announced changes to the emissions trading scheme.
Older respondents were more likely than younger respondents to approve of the recent Government announcement regarding change to the emissions trading scheme (59% 50 + over v 35% 18 – 24 year olds).

The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has announced the commitment of another 450 troops to Afghanistan which will bring the total number of Australian troops to about 1,550. Do you support or oppose this increase in the number of Australian forces in Afghanistan?

The cross-tabs tell us:

59% of Green voters, 48% of Labor voters, 45% of Coalition voters strongly oppose/oppose the increase in Australian troops in Afghanistan.

Older respondents were more likely than younger respondents to strongly support/support the increase in Australian troops in Afghanistan (50% 50 + year olds v 22% 18 -24 year olds).