Comments on: Gen Blue – Coalition Mortality and Electoral Decline

By: The Grey Vote: Ageing and Cohort Succession – Pollytics

The Grey Vote: Ageing and Cohort Succession – Pollytics — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 01:07:49 +0000

...] One of the themes we regularly explore here on the blog is the notion of the Coalition’s Demographic Train Wreck – how historically the Coalition have received a premium level of voteshare from the generation born before World War 2 (that we call Gen Blue), how that vote has delivered them electoral benefits for over 30 years – but it hasn’t been replaced in the following generations, leading to a structural decline in the Coalitions vote as this older generation continues to become a smaller proportion of the total electorate. Our most recent piece on this can be seen over here. [...

By: How voter enrolment changes election outcomes – Pollytics

How voter enrolment changes election outcomes – Pollytics — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:44:25 +0000

...] age, of the ALP TPP vote at the last election. You can find the gory details of how it was created over at the top of the Gen Blue post where we first used it (and it’s worth a read if you missed [...

By: Andrew Norton » Blog Archive » What will stop Liberal demographic decline?

Thu, 21 May 2009 11:39:33 +0000

...] commenter Robert asked about my views on Scott Steel’s demographic political analysis. Using 2007 polling data, Steel finds what several others – including me, Andrew Leigh, and Ian [...

By: Friendless

Friendless — Mon, 18 May 2009 23:36:43 +0000

EnergyPedant @36, I am an example of a leftie who hates unions. To me, Labor is not at all the party I’d like to have in power, it’s just better than the Liberals. Labor is a one-issue party, and does not adequately represent the left except in the case of labor unions. The turning point came for me during the electricity strikes in Queensland in the 80s, when I lived in Gladstone and realised that this was not just some remote group of people making life difficult, this was warfare between the unions and the people. Strong-arm union tactics used on my wife in the 90s only made me more resolute. Queensland teachers are on strike today and I have nothing but contempt for their tactics – they’re affecting me much more than they’re affecting the government. The sooner there’s an alternative progressive party in Australia, the happier I’ll be.

By: zoomster

zoomster — Mon, 18 May 2009 10:27:04 +0000

I’m not even talking tertiary education – education beyond the age of 15.
As a teacher, my observation would be that critical thinking doesn’t ‘click’ (it may be taught!) before Year 10 (so traditional leaving age).
I know it’s a bit much to condemn a whole generation as fuzzy thinkers but (again) my observation is that people who left school at 15 have limited critical thinking skills.

By: David Bagnall

David Bagnall — Mon, 18 May 2009 09:12:15 +0000

My experiences were almost identical to those of Gail at post 60. I confirm that conscription, Vietnam and “reds under the bed” were over-riding influences.
Zoomster (post number 55) points out a lot of the co-incidental changes that were happening which contributed to this shift (increasing tertiary Ed), but even conservative University student populations were radicalised by conscription and Vitenam. There was social change as well (rock ‘n Roll, feminism, Green politics) but conscription and Vietnam were catalysts for changing Australia’s 20 year olds for ever.

By: Gail Tuft

Gail Tuft — Mon, 18 May 2009 04:23:50 +0000

@Thomas Pain #53
The issue of conscription and the Vietnam war was a huge influence of those born after 1947 and subject to conscription at 20 when the age of majority was 21 would affect this generation directly. I was born in 1949 and grew up in a comfortable environment in a comfortable, liberal-type suburb, going to a comfortable well provided school. I have been Labor/Progressive in my views since I was old enough to vote. The turning point in my political opinions (before I was old enough to vote) was conscription, the Vietnam war and the “reds-under-the-bed” fear politics of my teen years.

By: john humphreys99

john humphreys99 — Mon, 18 May 2009 03:22:32 +0000

The blue, green & red lines seem to have a soft upward trend. From just eye-balling it, it appears to be about +3% for those groups over 20 years.

And of course, none of us know which new memes are going to capture the imagination in the coming years, or how the ALP will perform in the medium-long term.

I note that J.S. Mill was criticising conservatives from a classical liberal (not social democratic) perspective. I agree with him. Unfortunately, conservatives (both left & right) dominate politics because it’s such an easy position to take. Challenging the status quo is always a political challenge.

By: EnergyPedant

EnergyPedant — Mon, 18 May 2009 01:50:59 +0000

Thanks to those who answered on my Union-ALP query.

As a general trend do people in their formative years react against or for the government? Is the most impact felt from good or bad government policy?

E.g. Someone earlier commented about Vietnam and conscription being a much bigger issue for people around conscriptable age than the older generation.

By: Mark Lever

Mark Lever — Mon, 18 May 2009 01:24:02 +0000

Fine, fine work Possum.

Confirms what I’ve felt intuitively for some time. For the sake of a competitive political system I do hope there’s enough neurons left in what passes for the collective brains trust of the Coalition to really absorb and ponder the implications of this.

Anyone involved in selling or marketing knows that brand preferences become hard wired as you get older and the older the customer the harder it is to get them to change behaviour. Politics, I suspect, is no different.

The Coalition do need a really big brand makeover and everything I’ve seen lately confirms that they just don’t get it. Banging on about “worst since Whitlam” etc etc won’t cut it with anyone still of working age. People born in the 1930s and 1940s cut their political teeth in the Menzies era when the ALP = reds under beds etc etc. Born in the 1950s, you grew up with the swinging 60s, Vietnam and “It’s Time”. And chances are you loved Gough.

As others have commented, the real opportunity here is being seized by the Greens, as in Fremantle. In a few years time the political landscape is likely to see the ALP firmly astride the centre and under attack both from the Left (ie Greens) and Right (ie Coalition) but with no viable alternative government. Troubling.