Comments on: Pollytrend:Did the budget change the polling trends? http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/19/budget-pollytrend/ Politics, elections and piffle plinking Mon, 23 Nov 2009 04:59:55 +1100 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Possum Comitatus http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/19/budget-pollytrend/comment-page-1/#comment-13038 Possum Comitatus Tue, 19 May 2009 22:53:54 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=4782#comment-13038 Caf, the trends certainly look that way - but the underlying data generation process (the individual polls from the 4 pollsters) all move together. So for this to truly be a random walk, we'd have to have all four pollsters randomly walking together nearly all of the time - which sort of destroys the very definition of "random". TWM, We do seem to have stabilised around 56 +/-3 for the phone polls and 60 +/-2 for the non-phone polls. Caf,

the trends certainly look that way – but the underlying data generation process (the individual polls from the 4 pollsters) all move together. So for this to truly be a random walk, we’d have to have all four pollsters randomly walking together nearly all of the time – which sort of destroys the very definition of “random”.

TWM,

We do seem to have stabilised around 56 +/-3 for the phone polls and 60 +/-2 for the non-phone polls.

]]> By: thewetmale http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/19/budget-pollytrend/comment-page-1/#comment-13034 thewetmale Tue, 19 May 2009 12:01:54 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=4782#comment-13034 It's interesting that the movement seems to be wavering between a little under 58 and a little over 59. I think with the evidence so far it's just as likely that the budget has changed things (red line) as the budget has just coincided with a rhythmic wavering (blue line.) Certainly anyone who is declaring this to be the game changer needs to chillax. I have also been contemplating what Shanners would have written if he was stuck in his 2007-election mindset. My guess is he would have written that the satisfaction and PPM ratings are always a leading indicator and in the coming weeks we can expect to see the Liberals coming back. It’s interesting that the movement seems to be wavering between a little under 58 and a little over 59. I think with the evidence so far it’s just as likely that the budget has changed things (red line) as the budget has just coincided with a rhythmic wavering (blue line.) Certainly anyone who is declaring this to be the game changer needs to chillax.

I have also been contemplating what Shanners would have written if he was stuck in his 2007-election mindset. My guess is he would have written that the satisfaction and PPM ratings are always a leading indicator and in the coming weeks we can expect to see the Liberals coming back.

]]> By: caf http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/19/budget-pollytrend/comment-page-1/#comment-13030 caf Tue, 19 May 2009 04:35:30 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=4782#comment-13030 The more I look at the trend, the more it looks like a random walk... The more I look at the trend, the more it looks like a random walk…

]]> By: TD http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/19/budget-pollytrend/comment-page-1/#comment-13028 TD Tue, 19 May 2009 03:40:03 +0000 http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/?p=4782#comment-13028 So you're saying what we're really looking for here is a budget bounce? ;) So you’re saying what we’re really looking for here is a budget bounce?

;)

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