I was going to go over the Newspoll budget questions today – but Andrew Norton has already done a marvellous job, so it would seem kind of superfluous to repeat it. The only thing I’d add is that Essential Report finding where two thirds of the population said they paid attention to the budget – which sort of puts it in perspective.
To sum up the budget findings, the three pollsters produced a solid consensus with their results.A slight but not overwhelming majority of the population:
- found the budget to be fair
- found the budget to be economically responsible
- were satisfied with the budget
- thought that the Coalition would not have delivered a better budget
- believed that the budget won’t be in surplus in 6 years
- opposed the increase for pension eligibility to 67
More people than not (a plurality) thought that:
- the budget would be good rather than bad in it’s impact on the economy.
- thought they’d be personally worse off as a result of the budget
The final bit worth mentioning that ties it all together is that the actual budget itself beat the expectations of the budget – Labor media management (read, play the gallery like a fiddle) strikes again.
In other news, this blog turned 2 years old on Friday – which would make me something around 55 internet years of age. I’d imagine that would make Grandpa Poll Bludger about 80 and Mumbles a veritable fossil. So, be nice to those two old guys or they’ll tell you to get off their lawn 
A whole bunch of folks asked how we should treat this poll The Australian is spruiking this morning. Treat it as seriously as you’d treat the Eurovision song contest would be my answer.
Newspoll released SA and WA State polling results for January to March which everyone seems to have missed – we’ll have a squiz at them soon. I’m building another flash app like the Demographic Profiles, but one which tracks State polling.
For those of you that think polling is easy, it might be worth checking out Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal and his coverage of the latest American Association for Public Opinion Research conference. Some of the short interviews he did with the industry’s best are mighty interesting.
I had a piece in Crikey yesterday (free) which was a sort of roundup with special sauce of the things we’ve been talking about here all week.
Finally, many apologies to those that have sent emails recently and have yet to get a reply – I’ve been rather hopeless of late staying on top the mail pile.
34 Comments
I especially like this bit:
“Online poll respondents are not selected at random, as happens with published opinion polls such as Newspoll, and results can therefore not be compared with such surveys.”
So what does Franklin do?
“While yesterday’s Newspoll had Labor ahead in primary terms by 46 per cent to 37 per cent for the Coalition nationally, the WTPW figures for this month showed only 35 per cent of more than 300 Queensland respondents backed Labor, against 41 per cent for the Coalition.”
You guessed it! Compares the internet poll with Newspoll. Great effort.
But I love the Eurovision Song Contest. It’s one of the highlights of my year. There is almost as much politics involved in determining the winner as there is in voting for a PM.
And besides, where else can you see a 15 year old in a tutu with a green gimp and dancing midget twins as an act representing Albania? Or an American singing for Germany wearing the tightest silver pants you’d ever see being whipped by a German barbie doll?
But back to the Budget. Joe Hockey on 7:30 report put in a Eurovision performance. He even bamboozled Kerry with his linguistic gymnastics. Well worth a viewing if you missed it. It brings to memory a line I heard a while ago: “if he was any dumber, MY iq would go down.”
The difference between Graham Young and Eurovision?
Eurovision shows emerging failures.
This effort even surpasses Young’s pre-Queensland “swing to the Nats” final week analysis and is either incompetence at best or malicious pseudo-psephology, or both. His analysis should be called “What Graham Young Wishes”.
Happy Birthday!
I remember the blog’s birth very well. Right in the middle of the 2007 election year.
I clearly remember thinking how delightful it was to find a site that mentioned margins of error, let alone regression!
Well done and continued success.
That’s a bit harsh LuckyDave! I’m sure Graham doesn’t massage his figures to be what he wishes them to be. The problem is the sample frame – recruit from an unbalanced pool (Oz readers for instance) and the panel becomes structurally skewed.
Thanks Ari – you’d have to be one of the longest running readers here… poor chap!
I remember Poss when he was a mere poster like myself.
How you’ve grown…
Ha zoomster! I like to think it’s in stature – my wife reckons it just my head
Jesus has it really been two years already?
I really should get out of this chair then and feed the cat …here kitty kitty kitty, here kitty kit …
Kitty?
Poss
Sacre Bleu
you diss graham and then you diss eurovision.
Treason i say Treason
May i humbly suggest you read
and then consider graham aint some newby and btw he is quite a principled bloke
The day before the 07 election I told a large group of involved people what the result would be federally and for our electorate and little Johnny over in the east.
I was right of course, scored 3 out of 3.
Around 8-9 pm the next night, shortly after Maxine had sunk Johnny, the ALP was several seats into its majority and the swing for our candidate was exactly as per my prediction several of the group [which incuded 2 MPs] asked me for the source of my wisdom.
I nearly took the credit for myself but in the interest of honesty I said “A Possum told me”.
Oh
And happy birthday to your blog
Gus, don’t get me wrong. I’ve got all the time in the world for Graham.
But his sampling frame is still broken.
That’s funny Fredex.
The ALP types are so generally nervous and pessimistic, I think they were the only large group in the country that couldn’t see the obvious!
As a nervous and pessimistic ALP type I have to add my plaudits on the occasion of your blog’s 2nd anniversary, Scott.
Reading your balanced and thorough analysis of polling trends in the lead-up to the 2007 Federal election was a great comfort to me during a very nervous time, as we began to believe that we could finally oust John Howard.
Since then I’ve been a great fan of your work and I think that you contribute something very valuable to the psephological debate in this country, without which we would be much worse off.
Congratulations on your success so far and I wish you all the best for the future. Keep up the great work and keep those political ‘commentators’ honest.
I’d equate that Qld poll with the SBS unofficial Eurovision votes – turned into a traditional Greece v Turkey willie measuring contest. At least this year the best song came second, not like a few years back when the best song didn’t even get to the final and some Kiss wannabes won with a total piece of shite.
Hi Poss your comment re the aust.news paper and qld thanks for that but is it technical or you think its just hullabloo now there is an old fashioned word for you
come to think of it havent heard it for years.
what was the opinion today of hockey at the luncheon
Happy Birthday Possum. I hope the little house somewhere up a gum tree in SE Queensland is dry enough for the matches to light the birthday cake!
Seriously well done on the 2 years – I have been reading your blog since Bryen went into hibernation. I can honestly say you are the first person that has ever shown me a good use for the Statistics Subject in my Bachelor of Business degree.
Thanks, Possum. You top my citation list, oral & written – pity it isn’t indexed.
Feet webbed yet?
In several ways Poss.. one of which is that he actually tells respondents that the results are adjusted for “sample bias” by reference to respondents’ stated previous voting pattern…thus giving all the clever dick respondents the opportunity to declare, a la talk-back radio, that they have always voted labor/liberal but are responding to this survey with a vote for liberal/labor because they feel now betrayed by Bligh / Rudd / Turnbull / Pol Pot.
Another issue I have with Graham, and I have never met him so willingly defer to your learned character assessment, is that he has been such a ‘player’ in the Qld Liberal faction wars that I just can’t give full credence to any claim he might have to any form of impartial assessment of the results, but this is of course meaningless anyway when the survey frame is so broke!
As a Labor supporter, I’ve recently self-deselected myself from the WTPW survey population because I’m so fed up with the question structure (as in: I think Graham ‘polls for effect’)
The clincher has now emerged though – when the OO uses your data to back up it’s own arguments… I’m afraid you’ve moved to a position of zero credibility.
Oh and Happy Birthday to the most essential reading blog in Australia. Your efforts are truly appreciated Scott and long may you continue. If your missus thinks your head’s getting too big just tell her to widen the doorways.
Graham has some reasonable qualitative stuff. He has been “used” by the Australian. They needed more evidence to back the crud narrative they started on monday – unfortunately Graham’s “research” was available and abused.
Happy Birthday and many thanks for all your hard work. Having this site and some real analysis of what the polls may mean makes politics (which i tend to consider a spectator blood sport) much more interesting. Ive certainly learned to look at the media’s reporting of it with much more skeptical eyes.
I used to think that it was just the students at work (a uni) who didn’t get stats and now i know that in general they are genius’s compared to most journo’s.
Many thanks!
Possum,
What’s the MOE on this little survey?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25509826-5013404,00.html
Happy Birthday Possum, you don’t look a minute over 1,051,200 minutes (plus or minus 5%)
My intemperence at post 3 shows that this tabloid approach of The Australian creates a spiral of vitriol that benefits no-one.
I’d love Graham Young to be a credible contributor and Graham if you are reading this please take the time to re-frame your methodology. Trubbell at the Mill in post #20 accurately articulates my concerns regarding your approach to-date.
That said, I stand by my view that Graham Young’s analyses always somehow seem to benefit his beloved Liberal party – despite his claims of being an impartial observer who openly states political bias to provide credibility.
Graham, you can choose to either be a Liberal Party cheerleader or a hard-headed observer. As yet the transition has yet to be made sufficiently to convince this little black duck, but I am happy to be wrong; which is fortunate as I often am.
Poss, what I appreciate about your site is that for two years now you have time and again brought genuine objective analysis to complex contemporary issues. You had me at your recommendations on how water allocations should be managed. Thank you and Happy Birthday.
Big fat cigar and a fine red, at least virtually, but hopefully really, on this auspicisicious iciousipious occasion.
ps, the spelling of strange words can rival the usage of apostrophes for craziness making, but I wouldn’t let it worry me.
Much appreciated, Possum.
Wow, i’m chuffed that i started reading somewhere near the beginning, and you’ve been around longer than those hacks at FiveThirtyEight
. Surly the greatest moment would be your Pwning of the Epic Fails of Person, Shanners and the rest of the pseph jokers at the Aus. Out of interest, was there any particular occasion/event/whatever that got you started blogging?
GG, you reckon that article written while waiting at the bus stop on the way to work?
intemperence = intemperance.
Poss, can we get a spell check in comments for us hecklers in the next couple of years?
Congrats oh wise and furry marsupial.
Your blog was a comfort when the dreaded fear that Rattus Nonveritas and his minions might just sneak back in was weighing heavily on my mind.
What still puzzles me is how the @#$%^!& kept winning!
congrats Poss
Long let the numberz roolz.
Possum, another tasty morsel from the NY Times showing this:
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/20/whats-wrong-with-this-chart/
Congrats, Poss – long may you all reign (except for your the little sod of a cousin who jumps on our roof every night).
I’m with the other nervous Labor nellies who hung on to your incredibly insightful words before Nov07 and to old Grandpa’s site. I sat back and enjoyed it all from 6.10 p.m when we could all see your would be proven right.
It’s great to see that most of Australian can understand what Rudd is saying even if the media can’t.
We were just so used to sailing into elections with nice looking numbers and then Howard pulling a rabbit out of his hat at the last minute.