This morning I had a really interesting conversation about the Greens political fortunes and future on twitter with a couple of Greens folk and others. (yes, it is amazing what you can fit into 140 characters or less)
The topic soon moved onto Greens electoral demographics – not only who votes for the Greens, but who doesn’t and why.
As the largest third party in Australia, and with ever decreasing amounts of people saying that they are wedded to one major party or another, it’s interesting to ponder just why the Greens don’t perform better at elections – especially with the environment becoming a more pronounced issue.
What makes me wonder about this is that Greens voters are, on average, more educated than the national average (and there’s some evidence to suggest that they’re more politically aware as well) – so readers here do share at least one key demographic attribute with Greens voters, perhaps more – making you lot pretty much target number one for future growth in Green voteshare.
So why don’t you vote Green? What do the Greens do or say that stops you from voting for them? What would they have to do for you to change your vote and give it to them?
What are your thoughts on the caliber of Greens candidates? Are there too many whackjobs? Are there too many militant ideological types? Does their current candidate selection regime impede or boost their vote?
What about their current political and policy platform? Does it look like it’s overcome the Compromise = Sell Out argument within the party, or does it look as if that argument still has a long, long way to go before being settled in the broad sense that compromise doesn’t always mean selling out? If the party had more young professionals without political baggage standing for office (say, for instance, Larissa Waters types) and a few less Marxist types and miscellaneous ratbags, do you think that would change the party in a way that would make them more electable (if not for you, then for others)?
For those that wouldn’t ever vote for the Greens for whatever reason, what are your views on the Greens political position compared to that of mainstream Australia – and what’s your view on the current distance between the two, and how far do you reckon that distance has to reduce before one becomes compatible with the other?
With increasing numbers of people not being rusted on, and with both the Liberal and Labor parties having flanks exposed to the Greens – I’d be interested in your thoughts to see just how far away the Greens are from being able to (or potentially able to) make a realistic political assault on those major party flanks.
Something else that I’ve often wondered is why a large proportion of Greens voters live in the inner cities where the amount of natural environment is smallest, while their vote is weakest the further away one gets from a capital city CBD and where the environment itself becomes larger? And why do most young modern farmers – some of the biggest environmentalists in the country in the truest sense of the word – think that the Greens are pretty much the enemy and will have little to do with them?
Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated, especially since you are the demographic that will mostly decide whether the Greens remain a smallish third party relegated to the Senate, or one which becomes a much larger and competitive mainstream force in Australian politics.
178 Comments
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Nick of McEwen 145 – Whether people vote Green has nothing to do with my argument, it’s what they do with their second preference. Giving it to the Libs because they are dissatisfied with Labor to me is like cutting your nose off despite your face, particularly in NSW where it is optional preferential. I can actually understand a “lefty” or “centre lefty” voting for the Greens because Labor has let them down. I can’t understand them putting in a government that runs directly opposed to everything they hold dear however.
I’ve been a Labor supporter all my adult life and a member for nearly 20 years. Since 1994 I have worked on and off as an electorate officer.
BUT, in every political quiz I undertake, I come out of it well to the left of the Labor Party and often it explicitly states that I am a Green. Over the years I have certainly started to get a little jacked off with the ALP’s continuing feet-dragging on certain civil rights issues – most particularly on same-sex marriage – and am appalled that they have continued to support the NT intervention.
I suspect that once my “career” involvement with the ALP is no longer an issue that I might be more than a little tempted to get involved the Greens. I have never voted Greens before – mostly because I have been handing out ALP HTV cards and was clearly supporting the candidate in my seat – but I have thought about it. One election we had a weak ALP candidate and a really good Green candidate and even though I kept telling myself that voting was confidential, I still couldn’t bring myself to NOT vote ALP. The only time I haven’t voted ALP was when they didn’t run a candidate, and I voted for a very good independent. Otherwise I might have voted Green then. Nothing in the Green’s platform concerns me, and a hell of a lot I agree with.
So my short answer to your question is, yes; I would certainly contemplate voting for the Greens and would have before had I not been joined at the hip to the ALP. Ask me again in 2010 and the answer might be yes; I did!
Chinda makes an Interesting point changing your vote can be diffcult.
The 2007 Election was the first time I did not touch a Liberal how to vote card and while standing over the ballot paper I had to double check to make sure I had actually voted for the ALP but once the deed was done I found myself wishing the ALP how to vote card person all the best.
I am not sure why its so hard to change but I guess its a bit like forcing myself to watch a Collingwood V Carlton match with any great excitment.
Gary Bruce @151… as much as I despised John Howard’s government, I’ll be putting the Libs second after the Greens at the next election unless Kevin pulls his socks up. I don’t think the Libs are going to put back all the stupid stuff Rudd has undone, and they probably won’t implement some of the stupid stuff he’s suggesting, like the internet filter. Essentially I feel betrayed by Rudd and his pissweak ETS and batshit insane internet filter, and I will punish any government which tries that sort of crap. If the Greens do get elected, and they turn out to be a bunch of loonies, what have I lost? The previous two governments have been nothing worth preserving anyway.
A vote for Labor or Liberal is a vote for the status quo, but a single vote against doesn’t make much sway. A candidature for Labor or Liberal is a much stronger statement against the status quo than a vote, but the party machines are self-perpetuating. In those circumstances, the most important way that many can make a statement against the status quo is to vote Green. I feel as a consequence, the Green party is seen as contrarian.
I think that as the Green party gains momentum and it gains the resources to put together well-designed policies it’ll move away from that radical contrarian stance (which nobody wants from a major political party, as shown by the Liberals’ dismal polling results) but still maintain a strongly progressive position. The ALP has been forced into a centrist position due to the ascendance of the right factions, which is due to the Greens attracting now the brightest progressive minds.
I’m 27 and I’ve always voted Green, however I will start preferencing tactically for the Liberals ahead of ALP, to hopefully drive the ALP to the left.
154 – good for you but what you haven’t said there is that you have been a committed Labor person and now plan to vote Green then Liberal or Liberal. In fact you give me the impression you don’t like both major parties. That’s a totally different
scenario.
Good luck wanting the Libs back though. The words “very trusting” and “naive” come to mind.
154 – Did you vote Labor last election?
“as much as I despised John Howard’s government, I’ll be putting the Libs second after the Greens at the next election unless Kevin pulls his socks up”
Ditto 154
As my electorate is now a fairly safe ALP seat (it was one of the few to switch to ALP in 2004) it will not put Malcolm in the top job. If I was in an electorate where this was a possibility.. then that might be a different matter.
Q: If your first preference is excluded and preferences distributed, what happens when your preferences reach a candidate who has already been eliminated?
I think a good reform would be to discount preferences by the order in which they are allocated. ie 2nd preference counts as 1/2 the value of a 1st preference, 3rd preference 1/3 the value.. and so on. This would more accurately reflect the voter’s intentions.
Regarding political quizzes available online (#152), I often find that these give me quite a high Green score. However, I also find that such quizzes under-ask the sorts of questions concerning which I have the biggest differences with the Greens, and they don’t allow you to indicate certain issues as not just strong preferences but issues that hugely affect a person’s vote.
To some degree I find them unrealistic about the way at least some people vote. They probably work well for people who view a large number of issues as fairly important with no issue hugely so. They don’t work well for voters like me, who tend to form strong objections to particular stances on issues and then put all the objectionable parties at the bottom and pick someone to vote for from those left.
158 – So you voted Labor last election David?
It’s interesting that we have Green voters here that are keen to see a Liberal/National government returned, one that would be full of climate change sceptics and deniers. Amazing stuff. The Nationals don’t want anything to do with an ETS.
by default – put them second last, with libs last
with OPV or the discount system I outlined – it would not be the case
BTW – not keen to see the perfidious Liberals back in power… ever
The electorate I live in safe ALP, so a kick in the goolies for ALP is quite safe
That’s all well and good David but if enough people in your electorate think that way the “kick in the goolies” becomes a Liberal seat.
WTF? If I was a Labor strategist, I would be more likely to read voting patterns like this as indicating that voters want Labor to adopt more environmentally positive policies but otherwise go right.
Your vote is essentially saying “I think the Greens are the best party but the Liberals are second best”.
Thgen Gazza – if you have any influence in the ALP – ya better tell em they could be kicked out because people are so disappointed they are even contemplating voting this way.
Unless I see some fairly major changes by the ALP – I see no difference between them and the Libs.
Does it really matter which of the tweedles is in?
So you want WorkChoices? You want no action at all on cc (rather than not as much as desired)? You want private health and private schools to be favoured at the expense of public? You want an insular government which doesn’t engage with the world (the USA is only one country, despite its delusions) and sees China as a threat, whilst encouraging its mates to rip off other countries? You don’t want spending on infrastructure, which benefits us all? You don’t want faster broadband??
WorkChoices – not completely eradicated as promised
The ETS was worse than useless, and in any case is set to be deferred due to the GFC
Private schools – Latham’s plan was scrapped, which was one of his good ideas
USA – Rudd is still kowtowing to US over Afghanistan and Iraq, and the FTA, and ANZUS, and wasting money on useless defence equipment… including the Junk Shite Fighter and the StupidHornbag
What good is faster broadband if you can’t afford to sign up for it? Besides, it just means you go over your download limit even faster.
I don’t see enough difference to separate the tweedles
Well Dave, I’m not an ALP member or any other party member. Go right ahead and help vote them out. Then kiss an ETS goodbye.
167 – I have more respect for a dedicated conservative supporter than an embittered lefty who would rather vote a conservative party in than any party of the left. It’s a case of all or nothing. A typical Green trait I’m afraid.
Except something like 75% of Greens preferences flow to Labor.
Logic ftw.
167
Labor did not promise to completely eradicate WorkChoices. They said they would wind the laws back but also said they (ad lib ab nauseum) that they weren’t going to return to the same industrial system we’d previously had.
Same on ETS – haven’t changed the targets promised, deliberately left the short term vague during the election.
If the ETS doesn’t happen, it will be because the Greens and the Opposition voted against it, not because Labor didn’t try.
Faster broadband is good (even if you can’t afford it, which suggests a staggering degree of poverty) because it grows the economy, provides more educational opportunities for our children, will help provide specialist medical services in regional and remote areas, and open up business opportunities presently unavailable (recent article in our local paper about businesses deciding not to relocate here due to poor broadband coverage).
And finally, if there’s no difference between Labor and Liberal, why are the Liberals blocking Labor legislation?
170 – You’re right Oz, I should have said a typical far left trait, an attitude that has rubbed off on some Greens.
A recurring theme has been that the greens are not “pragmatic enough”. I would argue the reverse; that it is the ALP/LNP that are not “pragmatic enough” about Australian policy.
A pragmatist would accept the views and recommendations of the overwhelming majority of credible scientists. A pragmatist would not continue to pretend that there is no link between “the environment” and “the economy”. Only the insanely optimistic or stubbornly ideological (or dare I say “idealist”), could continue to delay serious action on climate change (thereby helping provide China/India with a reason not to act).
Only the greens seem to accept that time is a luxury that we do not possess. Climate change is the gravest threat facing the global system. And unlike all previous threats to the established human order (including the World Wars, disease pandemics, etc), the aftermath of this disaaster will be global and permanent. We will be in effect robbing the chance for future opportunities to learn from our mistakes, as they will have less resources to capitalise on.
I would add one further point to the greens Vs ALP debate. No party can credibly call itself “social-democratic” when it spends 30 billion cutting taxes at a time when innumerable matters require urgent government action. Firstly, the tax cuts benefitted the rich much more than the poorest segments or “middle class”. Secondly, for the so called middle income tax brackets, the tax cuts will mean only $2 week extra in take home pay (the cost of a coffee – surely most would prefer this be spent on more services).
Furthermore, the global crisis is no exuse either, as the economic stimulus from such tax cuts is fairly small, as most consumers will just save the relatively small increase, rather than spending it (unlike targetted tax breaks, infrastructure spending or direct monetary support to those least well off).
It was the ALP’s support for the $30billion tax cuts during the 2007 election was the tip on the iceberg that finally forced me out of the ALP, and I signed up with the greens. I’ve never looked back. I was sick of wincing whenever I heard/read that the ALP had rolled over once again. I could never completely justify helping the party out on election days when knew that they took their membership for granted and treated them as an inconvenience in conferences. And ultimately, I know that I’ll have a clean conscience when I talk to my grand-kids about how beautiful the Great Barrier Reef was, and about all the jobs which used to be available in what was the biggest industry in Queensland – tourism.
I think its strange the msm pundits have been saying the greens are being less troublesome in the senate because they are trying to usurp the Democrats lost vote.
This seems to completely miss the fact the Democrats were made of centre-right small-L liberals and centre left people. (ultimately the cause of their downfall due to infighting). The Greens could never been in a position to fill the Democrats void, imo. The Dems were far more pragmatic.
Glenn Milne is on “Playing Politics” trying to suggest the opposition can still come out smelling like roses given the latest GDP figures. Gee he looks dejected.
Sorry, wrong blog.
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