The Dept of Human Services has a handy list of government data at the electorate level, one of which is the number of Newstart recipients in each seat. There are currently two sets of this Newstart data available on the site, the first from 27th June 2008, and the second from 1st January 2009. We can compare the changes in Newstart over this 6 month period to see which seats are showing the largest increases in unemployment – at least on this particular metric.
What was interesting here is how Queensland is faring. If we look at all of the seats across the country which have experienced an increase in Newstart numbers of 500 or more over the 6 months, 10 of those 16 seats are in Qld, including 6 of the top 7.
If we change the metric and rather than use the raw numbers, we look at where proportionally the numbers are changing the most by taking the percentage increase in Newstart claims for each electorate – again, of the 19 electorates that have experienced a 20% increase or more, 13 of those electorates are in Qld, including 5 of the top 7.
Queensland seems to be the place where unemployment is hitting the harderst, at least at the electorate level using Newstart data. That will probably start to play into the next Federal election campaign one would think. The NT on the other hand has ben having a serious reduction in the numbers of Newstart recipients, which really stands out compared to the rest of the country.
By State, the results for all seats look like this (click to expand):
NSW VIC QLD
SA WA TAS/NT
2 Comments
Interesting to note, Poss, that in both of your first two graphs, a lot of the Queensland seats are regional! I’ve often thought that Kevin Rudd’s focus on unemployment as a social evil (cf his Monthly essay) is informed by his own, first-hand observations of its impact in regional Queensland. Nice post!
Just as drought devastates transport & farm-service industries, and other town & city businesses & jobs in a brutal domino effect; so the GFC devastates those affected by mine & tourism down-turn.
In Queensland (prob WA as well, though the blows may be delayed) massive lay-offs from mine closures/ downsizing, metal ‘preparation for export’ (inc smelting) and fabrication, and the resultant domino flow-on to other industries, are quicker and more obvious than in states less mining-intensive. As many miners are “fly in, fly out”, there’s a major impact on air services (especially small, independent companies & pilots – at least one’s gone belly-up), taxi/limo services; on site they use catering, cleaning, AV rental & other services. In addition, the last year’s floods etc, as well as the collapse of ABC Learning & Storm have forced businesses and individuals onto the dole, especially as the GFC led the Federal government to ease conditions and waiting times. I haven’t good knowledge of the effects of GFC + wet weather + oil spill on tourism, but I believe it’s at least as bad as the Pilots’ Strike.
I believe some mines, metal processors, tourist spots etc, eager to retain qualified staff (especially given it’s assumed China will soon be a major player again) have come to agreements re “temporary” lay-offs and “retention” part-time work within Centrelink guidelines. Some affected people have chosen to extend or get new qualifications that enhance their chances and choices after the GFC. This meets the Fed Government’s skills-training policy & money is available through Centrelink “Newstart” & other programmes. In addition, many may be absorbed through infrastructure programmes designed to fill the GFC gap – Toowoomba’s “Chronicle” (11 May 09; http://www.thechronicle.com.au/story/2009/05/11/boom-keeps-builders-at-full-stretch/) reports that builders have put on many (30 for one builder, who’s looking for more) because of the First Home Grant’s & schools’ refurbishing projects.
Taking these factors into account; add that several rural seats are Coalition-held, and considering how up-front the government has been re the GFC and the steps it’s taken to minimise the impact, I can’t see employment downturn having a lasting negative electoral impact for the Rudd government. OTOH, given Turnbull & his Coalition colleague’s clear message that they don’t support the Rudd Government’s policies that shore up so much employment / support reskilling / put cash in struggling families’ pockets, I can only guess the long-term impact of their policies on Qld seats.