Pollytrend – 6 weeks of ALP decline.
- Share
As you can see from the Pollytrend graphic in the sidebar on the right, the government has taken a chunky hit over the last 6 weeks or so. If we blow that out to take in the entire period of the Rudd government, we can see that the Coalition is currently equalling their best period of performance this term – last September when Turnbull took over the leadership.
In broader terms, a 55/45 position is still a wipe out for the Opposition, but they have managed to roundup the wandering members of their base back into the Coalition voter herd.
If we zoom into that graphic and look at the results for just 2009, it gives us a more accurate picture of when the trend changed.
The polling trend line started dropping for Labor when the two big issues taking up the news cycle were Ruddnet and boat people.
Since then, both the pre and post budget periods have been pretty much dominated by the debt vs stimulus debate – a debate which Labor appears to be losing so far. Yesterday’s Essential Report questions on aspects of economic management pretty much condensed the story into a single graphic.
While that trend looks nasty for the ALP, if we look at the primary vote patterns of the majors over the period of this government, it provides a bit of a reality check.
(click to expand)
The Coalition vote, even after their recent spurt, is still stuck on trend below 40%. Keep in mind that the Coalition needs to be ahead of Labor on primary vote terms by around 3-4% for them to win an election, simply because of the current nature of the minor party vote share and where those preferences end up flowing in two party preferred terms. Even if Turnbull continued to gain ground over the next 6 weeks at the same rate as he has over the previous six, Labor would still be holding an election winning lead.
I was going to go over the Galaxy poll today, but there isn’t actually much in it – Peter Brent of Mumble fame has the tables for those interested.
Please login below to comment, OR simply register here :
Thank you for registering, we have just sent you a confirmation email, which includes your new password to be entered below.
Galaxy, Essential and Newspoll all on 55-45. Solid.
I’m not sure this has too much to do with the Coalition. If you look at the bulge in the ALP’s primary numbers, they’re defined by prospect of the individual stimulus payments. Like all direct assistance from Governments, the $900 was much better for the Government when it was in the than in the past. While people were thinking about what they were going to do with the $900 that nice Mr Rudd was giving them, the Coalition couldn’t get a look in. Move forward to April, whenpeople had the money in their pockets (or a nice new TV on the wall), and the numbers disappear very quickly. My read is that what we’re seeing here is proof that the electorate doesn’t care about what Governments have done for them in the past and only care about what comes next.
I think that when we get to August and look back at the last six weeks, we’ll see it as a return to polling business-as-usual, and that Nov ’08-April ’09 was an extraordinary period that showed a bump to the ALP due to the stimulus package.
The big problem for the Coalition is that the last six weeks isn’t about their argument getting traction – it’s just disinterested voters with a Coalition lean returning to the fold. The happy long-term marriage looks like it sits at aboout 55/45 to the ALP – basically, as Oz said, solid.
In a simialr theme, for all interested parties, I’ve posted a long term polling comparison for the Rudd Govt vs the first Howard Govt.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=5639
I’ll be worried in a few months. For now, given that most people supported the budget, and the direction that the Govt is heading in, it all looks like its mostly within the margin of error.
Possum,
I agree that the Coalition seem to be winning the “debt is bad” argument atm. People seem concerned that they’ve got the rebate but things have not improved. There might be some resentment against the Government for making them feel guilty about taking the filthy lucre.
Actually, there might be a disconnect between money spent and results on the ground.
My guess is that this is a timing issue and once the community sees the hard hats, flurescent vests and the plaques they might start giving the government credit.
Scare campaigns like what have been run by the Libs are only scary till people say boo or better economic news appears.
Aristotle:
AAAARRGGGGHHHH!!!!!!!!!!
Aristotle, numbers convey diddley squat, and are as boring as bat shit.
Post them as a graph!
I’m sure you’ve got some good stuff there, but it is not accessible.
A picture is worth a thousand words.
Please login below to comment, OR simply register here :
Thank you for registering, we have just sent you a confirmation email, which includes your new password to be entered below.