In the first poll of the final polling cycle where the Coalition can blame their poor political state on Peter Costello, Essential Report has the primaries running 48 (up 1) / 38 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – a one point gain to Labor from last week’s Essential Report. This comes out of a rolling two week sample of 2098 for an MoE around the 2.1% mark. Essential has behaved the way we thought it might considering the probabilities attached to the last Morgan Phone poll - where Labor appeared to get a bounce from the good economic news of the last few weeks. One down, Newspoll to go.
According to Christian Kerr of The Oz, we over-egg the polling analysis here by using things like pesky numbers instead of lint plucked from hours of intense navel gazing. As both a public service to Christian, and (as a suggestion from some Twitter folk) acknowledging The Oz’s call to mediocrity in political debate – this is all you need to know about the poll.
It would also help the cause of The Oz if they could get the basics right when in lecture mode – like spelling someone’s name properly.
Just sayin’.
For those of us that can walk and chew gum at the same time and couldn’t really give a toss about such nonsense, Essential also ran additional questions this week on a whole bunch of interesting stuff using a sample of 1292 for MoE’s that max out around the 2.7% mark – although you can work them out yourself in higher detail for the various responses using The Poll Cruncher if you’re that way inclined. The interesting bit on the economic questions are the way the responses are changing over time, so I’ve whacked in some charts to highlight the movements as well as the tables. Note how the economic expectations have now crossed into net positive territory, reinforcing the results that the latest consumer confidence measures have been picking up.
How do you think the Rudd Government is addressing the global financial crisis?
(click to expand)
On the cross-tabs, Essential says:
People’s perception of how the Rudd Government is addressing the global financial crisis followed party lines – 95% of Labor voters think the Rudd Government is handling the global financial crisis very/quite well and 66% of Coalition voters thinking the Rudd Government is addressing the crisis quite/very poorly. 72% of Green voters think the Rudd Government is addressing the global financial crisis very/quite well.
Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
(click to expand)
The cross-tabs were brief on this one, saying ” Labor voters were more likely to think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/a little better (62%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think that they will get a lot/a little worse (56%). ”
Have the recent changes to the Rudd Government’s Ministry, including the resignation of the Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon and his replacement with Senator John Faulkner increased or reduced your confidence in the Government or has it made no difference?
The cross-tabs have us:
72% of Labor voters, 64% of Green voters and 62% of Coalition voters indicated that the recent changes to the Rudd Government’s Ministry has made no difference to the level of confidence they have in the Government.
However, Labor voters were more likely to think that the recent changes to the Rudd Government’s Ministry, including the resignation of the Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon and his replacement with Senator John Faulkner has increased their confidence in the Government (20%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think that the change in Rudd Government Ministry has reduced their confidence in the Rudd Government (32%).
Do you think the Greens should support the Government’s Emissions Trading Scheme legislation in the Senate or should the Greens oppose the legislation unless the Government adopts stronger targets?
On the cross-tabs, Essential says:
Labor voters were more likely to think that the Greens should support the Government’s ETS legislation in the Senate (55%), while 41% of Coalition voters and 57% of Green voters think that the Greens should oppose the legislation unless the Government adopts stronger targets.
Males were more likely than females to think that the Greens should oppose the ETS legislation in the Senate unless the Government adopts stronger targets (42% v 29%).
Would you support or oppose unions campaigning for more reforms to industrial relations laws?
The cross tabs have us:
50% of Labor voters and 55% of Green voters support unions campaigning for more reforms to industrial relations laws, while 60% of Coalition voters oppose unions campaigning for more reforms to industrial relations laws. Only 14% of Labor voters opposed unions campaigning for further reforms.
Respondents earning $1000 – $1600 per week showed stronger support for union campaigning (40% support, 26% oppose) than workers earning over $1,600 per week (33% support, 34% oppose).
Do you think the Rudd Labor Government has given enough support to working people, not enough support or too much support?
On the cross-tabs, Essential says:
60% of Labor voters think the Rudd Government has given enough support to working people and 28% think working people have not been given enough support. 51% of Coalition voters think the Rudd Labor Government has not given working people enough support and 14% think the Rudd Government has given too much support to working people.
Respondents earning $1600 + per week were more likely than those in other income groups to think the Rudd Labor Government has given enough support to working people (47%).
Respondents aged 25 – 34 were more likely to think that the Rudd Labor Government has given working people enough support (48%), while respondents aged 45 – 54 were more likely to think the Rudd Labor Government has not given working people enough support (44%).
UPDATE: The bicyle riding, latte sipping, skivvie wearing soft-left collective hive-mind of Larvatus Prodeo has a say on Kerr as well 
29 Comments
“Was here … Now there”
Gold!
It’s much better when you say that 100,000 voters have changed their voting preference since last week. Must be done with a serious face.
Since you were obviously trolling for custom on PB, Poss, thought I’d better drop in.
Watch it Zoomster – you sound like one of those whose “reactions consists of conspiracy theorising that that would bring a blush to the cheeks of the authors of The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.” that we were all warned about
Love your work, Possum.
You know, that first graph would look a lot better in Numbers wood-grain.
Poss – I made a witty repartee using the phrase ‘overegging the pudding’ and references to my cholo-whatever they are levels but the internet, in its wisdom, promptly lost it.
I’m sulking now, a la Costello.
The OO are having MUCH difficulty with the concept that more people want to draw their own conclusions about what is going on and regard 99% of the OO output as total nonsense.
The OO still think ideas are a one way street where they tell people what to think. End of story.
In truth the hacks of the OO have just about run their race. It will not be long before they are looking for new jobs. Either Rupert falls off the perch and the OO is sold off OR they bleed to death financially. Either outcome is great.
Their basic problem is fewer people are prepared to pay for their drivel.
Suck it up christian – open up your “articles” to comments so we can correct your wrong thinking.
Poss I think you are being a tad generous assuming they would work out there was a “one point movement”.
However, overall I also think your tone is just a tad disconcerting. Could you do something about that?
And lay off on the damn eggs will you? What have they ever done to you, that you have to keep going over them??
It the words of Chief Wiggum…
“woha, woha, slow down egg head”
In the words of Otto from A Fish Called Wanda:
“What was that first part?”
Poss
No publicity is bad publicity – you got second billing behind Mumbles. Bill Bowe scored a bronze.
I can’t figure it out, is Kerr trying to send traffic your way? Or maybe the other way ’round.
actually twm, I have always thought Possum could do with a few more “glavins” in his posts.
Grog,
‘Christian Kerr’ has stumbled into the ‘blogging dimension’
Has anyone seen the movie Tron?
I agree. The double arrow line is ambiguous. You need to drop the lower arrowhead to that it is clear that the one point movement was up.
Jason: “You know, that first graph would look a lot better in Numbers wood-grain.”
Seconded.
Possum, in regards to the graphs on the additional questions, wouldn’t a stacked bar chart be a better visual explanation of the data?
Kerr misspelled Guido Fawkes as “Guido Falkes”. Tsk. I went to the same school as him, and Chrissy Pyne for that matter. I seem to recall him falling down a cliff once and having to be rescued by the fire brigade or something. It was funny anyway.
This is fun: “Some of the analysis is excellent. Peter Brent’s Mumble offers sharp, smart, succinct observations on politics and polling.”
Mumble has been mostly wrong for a while now. The psephologists have killed him since he started saying “Obama can’t win cos he’s black” and other such poorly researched thingies.
I only read him out of habit, and probably not for much longer.
The Piping Shrike is the most succinct and interesting straight political (not psephological) blogger out there at the moment, imnsho – he leaves Mumble in the dust…
Tim, I was thinking about that and an area chart as well, but I was trying to highlight how each of the metrics has changed over time in and of themselves, so I went with a line chart instead.
I reckon the stacking of bar charts sometimes makes it harder to follow small trends that are occuring in the series that are stuck in the middle of each bar.
Dear Possum could you please send a little note to the abc who seem to just read from the Australian re polls , about the essential poll and Morgan poll.
I have really given up on the ABC also and now we always watch the SBS news.
I am an oldy on this site and a lot of the cryptic things the young ones say i cannot understand and i sometimes don’t know whether you are serious or just joking but my husband of 40 years says that i just don’t get it either. mmmm
e,g, the bit about dinner are you just joking,
please post things us oldies can understand in old language. mmm I don’t understand my uni son either he mumbles a lot
LOVE YOUR SITE i worry about the News poll and loose sleep i am not joking
who owns news Poll could some one enlighten me.
Newspoll is owned by News limited
Newspoll is pwned by Possum
Fair enough, Possum – I see your point. I just thought the graph, as it was, was a little confusing – seven is a lot of lines to have on one graph. With a stacked bar chart you could probably represent this amount of data more easily. Or could you have separate line graphs, perhaps? These are points of style rather than substance, of course.
I love the way you knock them down Poss.
Poor old Kerr and the Oz have been making a concerted effort to step up their ideological agenda over the past few weeks and it must be galling to be contradicted so easily by you.