Essential Report – Higher Taxes Edition

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 47 (down 1) / 37 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – the same as the last Essential. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 2175 for an MoE that maxes out around the 2.1% mark.

Considering that this poll was taken during the eruption of the OzCar Affair, the public seemed to react in one of two ways:

• They didn’t give a toss about the whole shebang

• Some people did give a toss, but they did so in roughly equal proportions both for and against the parties, canceling each other out in the voter movement.

UPDATE:

I should mention here that firstly, most of the last weeks sample was polled before the weekend – so the public could only react to the build-up of the Ozcar fiasco when it started to erupt. Secondly, this is a rolling two week sample, so only around half the sample actually covered any period of last week at all.

Essential also asked addition questions this week with a focus on that regular conversation starter – the tax rates/services provision nexus. This came out of a sample of 1121 for an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Would you support tax increases if they were spent on improving Government services and infrastructure?

Essential says on the cross-tabs that:

Labor voters were more likely definitely support/probably support tax increase (47% support/38% not support) whereas coalition voters were strongly opposed (31% support/60% not support). 56% of Green voters support tax increases if they were spent on improving Government services and infrastructure.

Which of the following would you be prepared to pay higher taxes for?

The cross-tabs have us:

Labor voters were slightly more likely than Coalition voters to be prepared to pay higher taxes for better hospitals and health services (79% v 71%).

Labor voters were significantly more likely than Coalition voters to be prepared to pay higher taxes for better schools and smaller class sizes (60% v 44%) and public transport (56% v 41%).

If the Government did decide to increase taxes, which type of tax would you prefer to be increased?
And which of these taxes would you least like to be increased?

On the cross-tabs we have:

Females were more likely than males to prefer tax increases on alcohol and cigarettes (58% v 47%). Older respondents (aged 65 years and over) were more likely than other age groups to prefer an increase on income tax (30%) as were those earning $600 per week or less (21%).

If the Government decided to increase taxes, the tax people would least like to see increased is the GST (33%), followed by income tax (32%) and tax on petrol (21%).

Those earning $1600 per week or more were least likely to prefer an increase on income tax (47%). Those on low incomes (under $600 per week) would least like to see increases in GST (38%) and tax on petrol (32%). There were no significant differences by voting intention.

Thinking now about climate change – some environment groups such as the Australian Conservation Foundation, WWF and the Climate Institute are supporting the Government’s plan for an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), while other groups like Greenpeace, The Wilderness Society and Friends of the Earth want the Government to adopt a more ambitious, tougher scheme. Which would you support?

With the cross-tabs, Essential says:

31% of Labor voters support the Government’s plan for an ETS while 29% of the same voters want to see a more ambitious, tougher ETS.

26% of Coalition voters want to see a tougher, more ambitious ETS while 23% of these same voters support the Government’s ETS plan. 69% of Green voters want to see a tougher, more ambitious ETS.

Respondents aged 18 – 24 were more likely than other age groups to support calls for the Government to adopt a tougher, more ambitious scheme (40%).

If Kevin Rudd retired as Prime Minister in a few years time, and the Labor Party was still in Government, who would you prefer to be the next Prime Minister? If Kevin Rudd retired as Prime Minister in a few years time, and the Labor Party was still in Government, who do you expect would most likely be the next Prime Minister?

The cross tabs provide:

More than half (58%) of Labor voters surveyed would prefer to see Julia Gillard as the next Prime Minister and a similar number (57%) of Labor voters surveyed expect to see Julia Gillard as the next Prime Minister under a Labor Government should Kevin Rudd retire in a few years time.

41% of Coalition voters expect to see Julia Gillard as the next Prime Minister and 17% of the same voters expect to see Wayne Swan as the next Prime Minister under a Labor Government should Kevin Rudd retire in a few years time.

In terms of preferred leader, no other candidate listed received more than 5% support.

The former Treasurer, Peter Costello, has announced that he will resign from Parliament at the next election. Do you think this will be good for the Liberal Party, bad for the Liberal Party or does it make no difference to the Liberal Party?

On the cross-tabs we have:

Labor voters were more likely to think that the announcement by the former Treasurer, Peter Costello that he will resign from Parliament at the next election will make no difference to the Liberal Party (45%) while Coalition voters were more likely to think that his retirement at the next election will be bad for the Liberal Party (35%).