Comments on: NSW Newspoll – Cruising Coalition Edition

By: Gary Bruce

Gary Bruce — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 07:27:02 +0000

When a government goes bad there’s nothing that can be done to rectify it. The Libs will get in and nothing will change. Give them a term or two to get chucked out. That’s how it works.

By: Geoff Robinson

Geoff Robinson — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 04:16:35 +0000

Ian Hancock in his excellent history of the NSW Liberal organisation notes that after 1988 the Libs were disappointed in private they hadn’t won some of the upper range Sydney marginals like Ashfield, Kogarah etc., the real test for Labor now is whether they can hold onto these seats next year.

By: philofsydney

philofsydney — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 02:22:19 +0000

6 – 11 is quite a bit when seat 11 is an 8% swing away. Simply put, the Libs won’t win majority Government with a simple 51-49 or 52-48 2PP, so they’ll need a BIG swing to win majority, which on the latest polls looks likely, but I expect to tighten in the next 20 odd months.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:38:52 +0000

It’s always true that the Liberals could falter, but 11 seats really aren’t that many at the moment. I would expect the swing to be much bigger in those marginal seats.

By: David Charles

David Charles — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:16:01 +0000

# 3 Yes, Scott you are probably correct but I observe that the ALP primary did dip below 30 in the later part of 2008. It must be a concern if some of its base is going to the Greens and it may not return (at least in 2011) with OPV.

# 4 Well Phil it is fair enough to be cautious about replacing Rees. I agree Sartor is not an alternative but what about someone else like the Roads Minister?

By: philofsydney

philofsydney — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:55:39 +0000

I still think that this will be a close election. The LibNats have to pick up 11 seats to win a majority, which, on a even swing is 8% required, with it going quickly to 10% if they miss a couple.

With the relatively high number of indi’s in NSW and the disproportionate weighting of the Liberal vote, a hung parliament would not surprise me, even if the Libs get a 53 2PP.

And David, I really don’t think that replacing Rees is a good move. I don’t think that his personal figures would improve for anyone else. As a close NSW watcher, I think that Rees is doing a good job and that his numbers is a reflection of antipathy towards the Labor Party in NSW. I think he’s growing into the job though and to replace him would only destablise the party – especially if with Sartor (who does not have more than a handful of votes in caucus). I think that Rees will lead Labor to the next election.

By: Possum Comitatus

Possum Comitatus — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:12:22 +0000

For those reading comments via RSS, the post has been updated with Greens and Others charts, as well as a link to Antony Greens latest piece where he takes a long view of NSW political support in the context of this Newspoll result.

Evan – I’m actually working on something like that with the charts, but it wont be ready for a little bit yet.

David, I’m wondering if the ALP polling can actually get any worse? Surely they must be approaching their rusted on levels of support.

By: David Charles

David Charles — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:10:00 +0000

The ALP must hope that its polling doesn’t get any worse (like their primary vote dipping below 30). The party desperately needs a strategy to contain the losses in the Legislative Assembly which it will inevitably suffer in March 2011. If it can put a ‘floor’ under its diminishing primary vote, and come out of the election with (say) no less than 30 Assembly seats, then the party gives itself some chance (albeit a long shot) of restricting non-Labor to being a one term government. Part of the strategy has to be to replace Rees (a 49% dissatisfaction rating is terminal) some time before the election, because I think he will continue to drag down the ALP’s primary vote while he is the leader.

By: Evan Beaver

Evan Beaver — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 22:51:21 +0000

Wow, I knew that everyone hated Labor in NSW, but I didn’t realise it was that bad! I haven’t seen this report before Poss. Thanks. I did also think that O’Farrell’s unknown-ness would count against them, but like you said, the party can still win. I suspect a lot of people are voting against Labor also, rather than for the Liberals. Do they poll Green/Other votes there as well? Could be interesting.

Lastly, some feedback, which might be impossible. I’d love it if the graphs could blow up in some sort of flash pop out, so I could compare them side by side while big, or move them around to read the text and think about it. Just a thought, I’ve got no idea how difficult this sort of thing is to do.