Tuesday week we have Newspoll and probably won’t see another Nielsen for a month.

The actually party voting results didn’t shift nearly as much as the satisfaction ratings for Turnbull, so it will be interesting to see if the ALP vote continues to drift upwards or whether the recent events simply arrest the slow decline of the last few months.

So when do the next round of polls come out?

Peter, there’s been turnarounds this big before – pretty regularly actually, but never in such a short period of time. Usually they take a few months (Downer, Latham, Crean, Hewson etc) – but happening in a week sets a new benchmark.

Caf – the reason I use a LOESS regression rather than weighted MAs or Henderson type affairs comes down to the treatment of end points and the flexibility of LOESS (where I can ramp up the aggressiveness if needed). I went over most of the reasons for it in detail here:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2008/10/05/nerdy-sunday-youre-so-smooth-edition/

The reason the blue and black lines separated mostly comes down to fitting a curve to the reality. In essence, the polling was a V shape, but just about any curve fitted to that sharp point will bow out at the sides a little. You might notice that the difference between the blue and black trend lines at the bow is less than half a point – which, if you look at the pollytrend chart in the sidebar (where the trend line itself is just under half a point thick in it’s width) means it wont actually make much, if any visual difference.

I ask because the comparison of the blue and black lines makes it clear that slightly higher values in the future have the effect of pushing the trend estimate down a little in the past, which seems hard to reconcile with reality.

Wouldn’t a centre-weighted moving average be more defensible? (or some other low-pass filter).

Rudd is nasty, he is the one attacking our honest, innocent Turnbull, who was just sitting there minding his own business. One day the world will find out how nasty Rudd is because, we will invent it, smear it and make the people believe he is evil.

It is instructive of the personal character of many Coalition members and instructive of the character of many a MSM journalist. It is hard to know who is more worthless, some of these murdoch journos or the Liberal Party.

With TurnMail-gate they got their pay off, their just payment. And if course it won’t change, the incessant smearing will continue in unison.

Rudd better make sure that media owndership laws forbid foreign ownership of Australian TV stations, and forbid ownership of both tv and newspapers. Don’t want to see Fake-News in Australia just yet.

Any chance that Turnbull is JWH MkII?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/02/howard2.png

He seems to be the only one who survived some net negative territory.

As always, thanks for the succinct analysis!