Newspoll Quarterly

Newspoll via The Oz have released their latest 3 month aggregation of federal polling, broken down into age, gender and geographical cohorts. The thing to remember when looking at the results here is that it is effectively the average of the last 3 months, so it contains Newspolls that have been good and bad for each party and doesn’t reflect the political zeitgeist of the moment, but rather the wash out of the April to June period.

I’ve rejigged the Newspoll Quarterly page (also easily accessible via the sidebar), so you can access static charts of the historical series going back to 1996, plus two spiffy new flash apps for the results from the 2007 election onward. The apps let you view the polling metrics by cohort, or the polling cohorts by metric – you just have to choose which way you prefer to look at it. The charts have mouseover functions, so the data value of each observation will pop up when you put your mouse on it.

Now we have these breakdowns, all sorts of interesting things can be done, starting later today with some election simulations where we combine these Newspoll results with the Nielsen poll results and run the polling aggregates through some monte carlo simulations to see what would have happened were an election held and the polling results repeated.

So, check out the trends while I crunch some numbers on the sims.

UPDATE:

Let me know if the flash apps arent appearing in your browser properly from the Newspoll Quarterly page – there seems to be issues mounting the files properly. was mounting problems, but it seems to be fixed. It should all be working spiffy now.