Essential Report – Positive Economic Outlook Edition

This week’s Essential Report come in with the primaries running 49 (up 1) / 35 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – a 1 point increase for the ALP since last Essential. This came out of a rolling two week sample of 1942, giving an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark. Another poll, another episode of death by increments in the vote estimates. This continues on from the latest Roy Morgan released late last week that polled on July 1/2, having the primaries come in at 46/39 to Labor for a two party preferred of 56/44 – a 1 point increase to Labor in the TPP from the week before. Although, that Morgan had a sample of 564 so it’s not worth spending too long thinking about.

Essential asked additional question this week on the perceptions of the economy over the next 12 months, concerns about unemployment, Liberal Party leadership and a series of questions on what people believe about each of the major parties. These run off a sample of 1038, for an MoE that maxes out at around the 3% mark.

Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

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These results are worth throwing into a couple of charts to highlight how perceptions have been changing over time:

On the cross-tabs, Essential says:

Labor voters were more likely than Coalition voters to think that over the next 12 months economic conditions will get a lot/a little better (65% v 44%). 41% of Coalition voters think that over the next 12 months economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/ a little worse.

How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?

The cross-tabs have us:

Respondents on higher incomes were more likely that those on lower incomes to be ‘not at all concerned’ that they or a member of their immediate family will love their job in the next year or so (38% earning $1600 + per week v 25% earning $600 – $1000 per week).

Which of the following do you think would be the best person to be Leader of the Opposition?

We can compare that to the September 2008 results which asked the same question:

Malcolm seems to stuck on 13%. Essential on the cross-tabs reports:

Only 28% of Coalition voters thought Malcolm Turnbull is best person to be Leader of the Opposition while 56% nominated someone other than Malcolm Turnbull. 23% of Coalition voters favoured Joe Hockey, 9% Tony Abbott and 8% Julie Bishop.

Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party? And which statements do you feel fit the Liberal Party?

The cross-tabs mentioned something a little interesting:

The most significant shifts for the Labor Party since we last asked this question in March 2009 are ‘keeps its promises’ (+11%), professional in its approach (-8%) and too dominated by its leader (+8%).

The striking thing about that list is how Labor leads on the positive statements and lags in the negative ones – for every statement apart from “Too dominated by its leader” .