This week’s Essential Report has the primaries running 50 (up 1) / 35 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 60/40 the same way – a 1 point increase to the ALP since last weeks Essential. The Greens are on 8 (steady) while the broad “Others” are on 8 (up 1). This comes from a two week rolling sample of 2117, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.1% mark.
Essential asked additional questions this week on Kevin Rudd’s foreign affairs, perceptions on economic conditions and employment over the next 12 months as well as question on the how the company one might work for has performed over the last year. These additional questions come from a sample of 1018 for an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark.
How would you rate the job Kevin Rudd did in his recent trip to the US and participation in the G20 summit on global economic questions and other related issues – excellent, good, not so good or poor?
On the cross-tabs, Essential tells us:
86% of Labor voters rate the job Kevin Rudd did in his recent trip to the US to participate at the G20 as excellent/good and only 6% of these same voters rate it as not so good/poor.
40% of Coalition voters rate Rudd’s performance as excellent/good and 51% of these same voters rate it as not so good/poor.
Green voters rated Rudd’s performance favourably – 73% thought his performance was excellent/good.
People aged 45 – 54 were more likely than those in other age groups to rate Rudd’s performance as excellent/good (67%).
When you think of Kevin Rudd representing Australia at international conferences, how confident are you that he will do a good job in representing Australia to the international community?
The cross-tabs tell us:
95% of Labor voters were very/somewhat confident in Rudd’s ability to do a good job in representing Australia to the international community.
50% of Coalition voters were very/somewhat confident in Rudd’s ability to do a good job, and 45% are not confident at all in his ability to do a good job at representing Australia to the international community.
There were no significant differences in terms of age and people’s perception of Rudd’s ability to represent Australia at international conferences.
After recently meeting the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, former US President Bill Clinton said “In my opinion, he is one of the most well informed, well read, intelligent leaders in the world today.” Do you agree or disagree?
The short cross-tabs say:
90% of Labor voters and 82% of Green voters agree with Clinton’s statements about Rudd. 37% of Coalition voters agree with Clinton’s statements and 49% of these same voters disagree.
Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
The cross-tabs say:
80% of Labor voters and 60% of Coalition voters think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/a little better.
Younger people were more likely than those in other age groups to be optimistic about Australia’s economic situation – 71% of 18 – 24 year olds and 70% of 25 – 34 year olds think that economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/a little better over the next 12 months.
How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
Essential tells us that:
People in part-time work were more likely than those in full-time work to be very/somewhat concerned when it comes to job security (56% v 49%).
Females were more likely than males to be very/somewhat concerned about job security (55% v 44%).
People earning $600 – $1000 per week were more likely to be very/somewhat concerned that they or a member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so (54%), while people earning $1600+ per week were more likely to be not at all concerned (45%).
If you work in the private sector, is the business or company you work in doing better or worse than it was 12 months ago?
The short cross-tabs say:
Self employed people working full-time were more likely than those working full-time but employed by someone else to think the company or business they work for is doing much/a little better than it was 12 months ago (39% v 29%).
7 Comments
A bit off topic, but as we all know, during an election campaign the numbers usually tighten up, but I find this usually happens when an opposition is leading the government, and as election day aproaches, people have second thoughts about the opposition and swing back to the party in power. Given that the government is the side with the massive lead, is this lead likely to shrink during a campaign, or would it’s support actually increase, as people who might be considering voting for the opposition get cold feet and the undecideds fall behind the government as is usually the case?
Or are the only people left supporting the Coalition rusted on party diehards and there are no more swing voters that the government can sway?
It’s a good question. There’s plenty of examples at the State government level over the last decade of big, mid term polling leads not contracting an inch on election day itself – it just hasn’t happened at the Federal level in the last 30 years.
I’m completely open minded about it all – the next election result should answer the question one way or another.
“After recently meeting the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, former US President Bill Clinton said “In my opinion, he is one of the most well informed, well read, intelligent leaders in the world today.” Do you agree or disagree?”
Ahh, the joys or ER’s fair, balanced, totally unbiased, of always – always – with no leading questions whatsoever, polls
Tim Andrews: don’t be so obtuse.
Can you please point out for us where the leading questions are in this poll and why they are biased and unbalanced?
The question that Tim quoted is pretty obviously dodgy, I thought so too when I read the article (and I’ve never voted conservative in my life!).
I wouldn’t call it leading though – I just thought it looked like a lot like shameless promotion dressed up as a polling question.
Dear Poss,
May I get totally, completely and utterly off-topic and say, no yell. PETER COSTELLO is now off the backs of the voters of Higgins, of whom I happen to be one.