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Essential Report

Nov 2, 2009

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This weeks Essential Report has the primaries running 49 (down 1) / 35 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – steady since last week. The Greens are on 8 (steady), while the broad “Others” are up 1 to 8. The missing point is due to rounding. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 2007, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark.

Additional questions this week are on the asylum seeker issue and one on climate change. These come from a sample of 1122 for an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

This is the long awaited polling on public perceptions of the asylum seeker issue and it’s politics – what is really worth noting is how the set of responses collectively paint a far more sophisticated picture of the country than a simple pro/anti asylum seeker stance leading into a pro/anti government policy stance and any consequent  pro/anti Labor/Coalition position.  Yet again, the public shows itself to be a little more complicated than some of our punditry muppets would have us believe. I’ve reordered the questions from as they appear in the actual report to start with the wider issues, before narrowing to the politics and finishing off with the ultimate political question on the issue.

The Federal Government is currently working with the Indonesian government to stop asylum seekers entering Australian waters. For each of the below statements that have been made about current incident of asylum seekers, please indicate your level of agreement.

asylum1

The cross-tabs tell us:

Labor and Coalition voters were more likely than Green voters to think the Federal Government is doing the right thing in discouraging people smuggling and turning back the boats (72% Labor, 69% Liberal v 51% Green).

Coalition voters were more likely to agree with the statement that the Federal Government is weak on border protection which is why more boats are entering Australian waters (79%), while Labor voters were more likely to disagree (32%). However, 40% of Labor voters agree with this statement.

Green voters were more likely than Labor and Coalition voters to agree that the Federal Government should be allowing legitimate refugees to enter the country and contribute to the nation (62% Green v 47% Labor, 45% Liberal).

.

Which country do you think most of the asylum seekers who have been trying to get into Australia in recent weeks are from?

asylum2The cross-tabs say:

People aged 55 years and over were more likely than those in other age groups to think that most of the asylum seekers who have been trying to get into Australia in recent weeks are from Sri Lanka (79%), as were males (67%) and Coalition voters (70%).

Respondents who were aware that the current asylum seekers were from Sri Lanka were more likely to agree that the Federal Government should be allowing legitimate refugees to enter the country and contribute to our nation.

51% of people aware that the most recent asylum seekers are from Sri Lanka (compared to 35% of those not aware) agree that the Federal Government should be allowing legitimate refugees to enter the country and contribute to our nation.

.

Which of the following statements is closer to your view?

asylum3

On the cross-tabs we have:

Males were more likely to agree with the view that suggests the reason for the recent influx of asylum seekers because of soft border protection approach of the Rudd Government (45%), while females were more likely to agree with the view that push factors such as violence and persecution result in refugees (63%).

Coalition voters were more likely to agree with the view that the Rudd Government has softened their border protection policies and this is the reason for the recent influx of asylum seekers (69%), while Labor (74%) and Green (83%) voters were more likely to be of the view that refugees are coming from places that have seen an escalation in violence and persecution that have pushed people to flee their homelands.

People aged 18 – 24 were more likely than those in other age groups to agree with the view that emphasizes push factors when it comes to explaining the issue of refugees (71%).

.

Overall, how would you rate the record of the Rudd Government when it comes to dealing with the issue of asylum seekers in Australia?

asylum4

The cross-tabs tell us:

Results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to rate the Rudd Government’s handling as excellent/good (58%), while Coalition voters were more likely to rate it as not so good/poor (81%). 34% of Labor voters and 65% of Green voters rate the Government’s performance on this issue as not so good or poor.

.

Do you think a Liberal Government would do a better, worse or much the same job in dealing with the issue of asylum seekers and refugees in Australia?

asylum5

On the cross-tabs we have:

Coalition voters were more likely to think a Liberal Government would do a better job (54%), while Labor (43%) and Green (41%) voters were more likely to think a Liberal Government would do a worse job.

35% of Liberal voters and 42% of Labor voters think a Liberal Government would do much the same job in dealing with the issue of asylum seekers and refugees in Australia.

People aged 55 years and over were more likely than those in other age groups to think that the Liberal Government would do a better job at dealing with the issue of asylum seekers (30%).

Do you agree that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

ccoctober

The cross-tabs have us:

People aged 25 – 34 were more likely to think climate change is caused by human activity (67%) while those aged 55 years and over were more likely to think what we are witnessing is a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate (44%).

Labor (63%) and Green (85%) voters were more likely to think climate change is caused by human activity, while Coalition voters were more likely to think what we are witnessing is a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate (54%).

Possum Comitatus — Editor of Pollytics

Possum Comitatus

Editor of Pollytics

Political Commentator and Blogger

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22 comments

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22 thoughts on “First big polling on Asylum Seeker issue

  1. RICK68

    YEAH! If they were low-life CIA agents with business visa’s, we would have Bolt bloggers and Akerman bloggers weaving American flags, as they welcomed them to Australia, and singing God Bless America—what a bunch gutless of brain-washed mangy imposters.

  2. RICK68

    It’s the old story, it’s not the poll that counts, but how the polls are counted or better still, Bolt’s one million hits a month are a myth–they are not true hits.

  3. So You Think You Can Interpret Polls? – Pure Poison

    […] what caused the Narrowing [TM]. But it was a single, aberrant poll result – at the same time, Essential Research came out at 59-41 (unchanged from the previous week) and last Friday Morgan’s latest came out at 61-39. Taken as a […]

  4. RICK68

    IMAGINE white settlers in boats from Holland and South Africa, Andrew Bolt and Piers Akerman and John Howard, these3 amigos would have a brass band on the wharf as they welcome these people– with their business visa’s as they stepped ashore.

  5. David Richards

    Some ideas for the Liberal Party on how to stop the boats –

    1. Mine all the routes likely to be used by people smugglers
    2. Use the Collins class subs to sink all SIEVS

    I’m sure that will get support in the party room.

    Note – I’m not advocating that they actually be carried out… but until the Libs come clean on what they will do… who’s to say they aren’t?

  6. Ilona

    I think politicians forget the impact they can have in shaping the public perception of issues. Instead, they are reactive and try to pander to what they think people feel about issues, when the reality is 95% of people don’t have a considered view and form their opinions on the basis of media or the way politicians themselves approach an issue.

    Krudd should take some initiative and talk about genuine compassion, the contribution refugees have made to Australia and the importance of upholding our international obligations rather than this schizophrenic ‘tough but fair’ crap which is only succeeding in alienating both sides of the debate.

  7. Andrew Norton » Blog Archive » Does the public support ‘legitimate’ refugees coming to Australia

    […] Pollytics blog reports on some interesting Essential Research polling on refugees. It does a bit more to fill the big gaps in our public opinion knowledge of refugees: there have been many questions about boat arrivals but very few about what the public thinks of the broader refugee program. […]

  8. Possum: The first big poll on asylum seekers | Opinions.com.au

    […] the rest here:  Possum: The first big poll on asylum seekers Related Posts:Newspoll: Labor’s lead slumpsThoughts after an Association of Superannuation […]

  9. shepherdmarilyn

    I don’t think they get past breakfast time. Actually it is the Daily Tele who has done the best job with the refugee issue.

    And just so people are in no doubt – we are talking about 4361 people arriving in 9 months, 2834 of them flying here.

    Over 40,000 people pass through our airports every day of the year.

  10. Mr Denmore

    Rudd needs to stop listening to all the too-clever-by-half former Daily Tele and Herald Sun hacks that infest his office and whose attention spans don’t extend past midday.

  11. Chasing the Norm » Blog Archive » That Newspoll

    […] Rudd has been). Turnbull thanks to this big swing in one poll (Essential Report, released Monday held steady) will now have a lot of expectations building in the backbenches and press by next fortnight. […]

  12. shepherdmarilyn

    I think it is truly repulsive holding polls on the treatment of asylum seekers when there is no context. Like most of them come on planes and not boats. Like they are allowed to come here.

    Like we are morons and depraved to boot.

    Now that idiot Rudd has a special envoy to stop the non-existent people smuggling out of Sri Lanka but still does nothing about the refugees in the wretched camps.

    He is behaving like a fucking freaked out nut bag.

  13. Venise Alstergren

    Loved the comment about CC denialists out-numbering Liberal Party voters. Possum Classic Comment.

    I wonder why the conservatives-you know, drones like the dreaded Ironbar, get their knickers in a knot about terrorists, when all the criminals running around in mobs-eg Underbelly-didn’t exactly come in on the first fleet, Did they Wilson? U silly old f/cker!

    If we found out that all these refugees were CIA operatives I’ll bet the arch-cons wouldn’t move a muscle to get rid of them.

    All the same I think it’s more than time for Rudd to move ‘is flamin’ arse and make a few decisions-even if they are going to be unpalatable for some of the voters. If we voted the religious little runt into power, we can always vote him out of it.

  14. Grog

    [Man made global warming skeptics – more popular than the Liberal Party!]

    Maybe a Flat Earth Party would get a run – I think Joyce is on the look out for a new party…

  15. vp

    One might be tempted to conclude that the set of Liberal voters is a proper subset of the set of skeptics.

  16. Tweets that mention First big polling on Asylum Seeker issue – Pollytics -- Topsy.com

    […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Pollytics and Pollytics, Scattered Voices. Scattered Voices said: RT @Pollytics First big polling on the asylum seeker issue http://bit.ly/3tRBvX Results are very very interesting […]

  17. David Richards

    the other interesting incongruity is that although there is overwhelming support for the Liviews expressed by the Libs re asylum seekers and boats etc., those same people don’t really see the Libs doing any better… so it may not translate to any votes

  18. David Richards

    Sadly, it shows that the Lib dogwhistle is still calling the pack of rabid dogs.
    Thank you Alan Jones, Andrew Bolt and co..

    Given these results – the only thing Rudd can do is be as big a douchebag as Howard. Although it would be good if he could deprogramme the lumpen’s Pavlovian response to these disgusting manipulative vermin.

  19. Possum Comitatus

    Has anyone noticed that there’s more climate change skeptics than there are Liberal Party voters?

    With that last question, the skeptics are running 34%, compared to the Liberal Party primary vote at the last Newspoll of just 30%.

    It’s a nasty thing to say, but it’s pretty funny:

    Man made global warming skeptics – more popular than the Liberal Party! 😀

  20. Thomas Paine

    Its the boats they don’t like, not the people in them. Nasty boats too.

  21. zombie mao for Alannah

    So hold back the boats but allow refugees to enter the country. WHAT?!!?

    This is one confused nation.

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