Newspoll over the weekend via The Oz released another rather hideous poll for the NSW government showing the primaries running 42 (up 1) / 30 (down 2) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 1 point increase to the Opposition over the last 2 months. The Greens are on 12 (down 2), while the broad “Others” are on 16 (up 3). This comes from a sample of 1271, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.8% mark.
Along with the voting intentions, this poll also had all the metrics running against the Rees government with his satisfaction down, dissatisfaction up and preferred premier dipping a point as well. On the other hand, Opposition leader Barry O’Farrell had a mixed bag with his satisfaction and dissatisfaction both up (at the expense of his undecideds), while his preferred premier metric bounced up 3 points to 36 – giving him a 5 point lead over Rees.
With the ALP primary vote so low and optional preferential voting running in NSW, the two party preferred continues to understate the size of the electoral flogging Labor would get were an election held and these primary vote figures repeated. It’s interesting that the O’Farrell just can’t seem to pull his net satisfaction rate up very high considering the rather tragic nature of the NSW government.
The usual charts come in like this:
7 Comments
Two party preferred not a surprise talk about people waiting with Wayne Goss’s baseball bats. But shouldn’t O’Farrell be up in the stratosphere.? Yet he just ahead of Rees. Let’s hope a landslide brings in some talent because Lib front bench are a hapless bunch of water buffaloes Apart from baird the rest seem to be factional hacks
Prime time for a third party to be launched in NSW. With the ALP in NSW a basket case and the Coalition not be able to get traction, this would be a great time to launch of another party. With some high-profile candidates and the right mix of profile, business expertise, a commitment to social infrastructure especially public transport and a strong position on climate change they’d have a good chance in several seats around Sydney. If they get the preferences right they’d do very well.
This NSW election would be a great launch pad for the introduction of another party. I think these NSW polls show that there is a sense of a ‘plague on both your houses’ in NSW.
@Kit
You seem to be forgetting…….. oh never mind.
Sam, I am prone to forgetting but…
Is it the Democrats? The DLP? The Shooters’ Party? One Nation? Christian Democrats?
The Greens are emerging as the party which harvests the disaffected votes which are leaving Labor. Add Green to ALP and the conservatives are far from home.
Interesting days are ahead.
@John
The swing away from Labor will land differently for each electorate. There may also be an increased tendency for existing Green voters to exhaust their vote before preferencing Labor this time around.