Throwing the last polling cycle’s worth of data into the Pollytrend algorithm, we can see that Newspoll produced no discernible change in the trend line – which is to be expected, since our trend here measures how all polls move together and it can adapt to outliers.
Also worth having a squiz at are three charts that I used in a Crikey article on Tuesday that shows how the three pollsters that have been in the field of late – Essential, Morgan and Newspoll - have comparatively behaved, with a focus on the last 3 weeks.
The Parliamentary Library has released a new paper on population change in Commonwealth electorates over the period of 2007-2008. It uses the 2007 electoral boundaries. The top and bottom 20 electorates in terms of population growth come in like this:
The paper also looks at population growth among cohorts of 0-4 years, 5-14 years and 65 years and over.
16 Comments
It’s interesting that with two ACT electorates, one was in the top 20 and the other right down the bottom of the list.
Surprising that the bottom 20 seems NSW-heavy. Maybe I’m imagining things.
Probably because NSW has lower population growth.
Yes, we can expect more fun and games in 3 years time when NSW loses another seat and is redistributed again.
Poss – one thing – what happened to 8 seats in the Projection of the phone poll averages?
DR – that’s what the result of the current phone poll average including the latest Newspoll looks like.
.. but 8 seats are missing – the Lib seats from the phone poll average and the simulation differ by eight, but the ALP and others are the same, so 8 seats are missing. Are they indeterminate?
The Fraser and Canberra trends are going to continue. In the North and West (Fraser) new suburbs are opening up at a rate of knots. In the South, there is very litlle room to expand.
Fraser must just about be the electorate with the greatest number of voters. They may have to put some of Fraser into Canberra. Must be close to having three electorates in the ACT, again.
DR – an “ah ha” moment blooms!
The Quarterly sim is based on the old boundaries, the current phone poll average is based on the new pendulum.
Tonight I’ll restructure my sim for the new boundaries and redo the last quarterly results.
Unless the new distribution abolishes 8 seats for a total of 142, it seems you have at least one more “ah ha” moment, yet to bloom, Poss
Aww shit – I hate it when I’m being an idiot!
I’ve fixed that up – Doh!
possum
I’m sure the tables on population are very jolly (so sure I have spent a hopeless hour trying to access them) but I can’t get them to work.
Any hints?
Zoomster – APH is nonsensically using the .xlsx format of Office 2007 rather than the basic xls format or csv file.
If you havent configured your computer stuff to work with it, this might help:
http://labnol.blogspot.com/2007/10/open-xlsx-spreadsheet-files-without.html
Poss, if I fed that into my computer it would blow up!
I just wish places like the Mallee (Vic) would strike gold. Something to absorb some of Melbourne’s population. Has anyone here ever been there? Flat, flat, treeless dust-bowl whose most prolific crop-inedible-is a sort of round and bitter gourd like thing. It sorta grows on air, I think. And the bastards still use those hideous man-trap things to catch the foxes and dingos.
Rock-solid Coalition voters, to a man/woman.
PS: I was reading the figures for the most populated and, naturally it was the Victorian seat of Lalor. This is what prompted my gloomy comment.
Sorry about that.