Essential Report – political approval and the economy

This week’s Essential Report has the primaries coming in 48 (down 1) /35 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – no change since last week. The Greens are on 9 (up 1) while the broad “Others” are sitting on 8 (steady). This comes from a two week sample of 2029, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark.

Additional questions this week looked at political approval ratings, public perceptions of economic conditions over the next 12 months, interest rates, better party to manage the asylum seeker issue and the recent oil leak of the Kimberly coast. These additional questions came from a sample of 1105, for an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader?

On the cross-tabs we have:

Approval followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister (93%) while Coalition voters were more likely to disapprove (69%). 25% of Coalition voters approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister.

[On Turnbull] Coalition voters were more likely to approve (56%), while Labor voters were more likely to disapprove (70%). 28%
of Coalition voters disapprove of the job Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader.

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Will the recent increase in official interest rates make you personally better or worse off financially?

On the cross-tabs, Essential says:

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to indicate that the increase in official interest rates will make them better off (36%) while middle aged people were more likely to indicate that it will make them worse off (53% of 25 – 34 year olds, 54% of 35 – 44 year olds).

People in full-time work were more likely to indicate that the interest rate increase will make them worse off (55%).

Perception that the rise in interest rates will make people worse off increased with salary – 46% of people earning $600 – $1000 per week/46% of those earning $1000 – $1600 per week and 49% of those earning $1600+ per week think it will make them worse off. 55% of those earning $600 per week or less think the interest rate increase will make no difference to their personal financial situation.

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Do you think the recent increase in official interest rates indicates that Australia’s economy is getting better or getting worse?

On the cross-tabs:

Labor voters were more likely to think the interest rate rise is a sign that the economy is getting better (61%), while Coalition voters were a little more likely than the average to think that it is a sign that the economy is getting worse (18%). 48% of Coalition voters think that the recent interest rate increase is a sign that the economy is getting better.

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Which of the following statements most closely reflects your opinion on the cause of the recent increase in official interest rates?

The cross-tabs have us:

Coalition voters were more likely to think that the Reserve Bank independently setting interest rates to avoid inflation is the cause of the recent increase in interest rates (39%).

Labor voters were more likely to think the increase in interest rates is because the Federal Government has managed the economy well and the rate increase is a sign of a strong economy (28%).

Green voters were more likely to think the recent interest rate rises are just a correction to the historic low interest rates during the Global Financial Crisis (24%).

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Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

Essential tells us on the cross-tabs:

Labor voters were more likely to think economic conditions will get better (65%), Coalition voters were more likely to think they will get worse (30%) and Green voters were more likely to think conditions will stay much the same (34%).

People earning $1600 per week or more were more likely to think economic conditions will get better (60%), while people earning $600 – $1000 per week were more likely to think they will get worse (32%).

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Thinking about the way the Federal Government has handled the asylum seeker issue recently, do you think they have been too tough, too weak or have they taken about the right approach?

The cross-tabs are consistent with yesterdays Nielsen and Newspoll results on this same issue:

Males were more likely than females to think the Federal Government has been too weak (55% v 49%).

People aged 55 years and over were more likely than 18 – 24 year olds to think the Government’s action has been too weak (64% v 32%).

Labor voters were more likely to think the Federal Government has taken about the right approach (43%), Coalition voters were more likely to think the Government has been too weak (76%) and Green voters were more likely to think the Government’s approach has been too tough (33%).

43% of Labor voters think the Federal Government has been too weak in its handling of the asylum seeker issue recently.

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Which party do you think would be best at handling the issue of asylum seekers?

On the cross-tabs, we have:

Attitudes followed party lines – Coalition voters were more likely to prefer Liberal (65%) and Labor voters more likely to prefer Labor (65%).

54% of Green, 38% of Labor voters and 24% of Coalition voters think there is no difference between how Liberal or Labor would handle the issue of asylum seekers.

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to think Liberal would be best (36% Liberal to 22% Labor), while people aged under 35 were more likely to think Labor would be best at handling the issue of asylum seekers (27% Labor to 20% Liberal).

Males were more likely to think Liberal would be the party best to handle the issue (31%), while females were more likely to think there is no difference (40%).

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Thinking about the oil rig off the Kimberley coast which has recently caught fire after leaking oil and gas into the ocean for 10 weeks – do agree or disagree that if the oil spill had occurred near an area like the Great Barrier Reef, the Federal Government would have done much more to prevent damage to the marine environment?

No cross tabs on this one.