Morgan has released a face to face poll from last weekend with the primaries running 46.5 (down 4.5)/38.5 (up 6) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44, a 5 point gain for the Coalition. The Greens are on 8 (down 1.5) while the broad others are on 7 steady.This comes from a sample of 874, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.3% mark.
That makes all 4 regular pollsters having shown a drop in support on both the primaries and TPP for Labor over the last month, with 2 – Newspoll and Morgan – showing a considerable drop (although the former was still most likely an outlier while the latter has a pretty small sample size).
However, it’s enough to register a drop in both the phone poll and all pollster trend metrics of Pollytrend, which can be seen over the fold:
Next week we should have a new Newspoll – and of course our regular Essential Report, which should both give us a better handle on the likely size of the drop in ALP support.
10 Comments
OMG! Labor wins only 99 seats on these figures…catastrophe!
It’s the end of the honeymoon.
Teh Narrowing has begun
The far right shills will party
At the Oz and the Hun.
And any poll that says otherwise is an outlier. Whatever that is.
There has clearly been a dip in support for the ALP, what is interesting to me is why the NewsPoll seems to have taken it to far?. I’m not interested in conspiracy theory’s, more statistical ones.
Why, at the first decent downturn in Labors figures, does NP happen to have the “dreaded outlier” right then.
I should make it clear that I do not believe the figures/questions whatever where deliberately manipulated to favour a drop in support. I’m at a loss as to why the outlier would happen at the most opportunistic time.
I’m thinking some weirdo inbuilt error or highly tuned movement pickup, not conspiracy.
And there was an ABC TV reporter last night telling us about Labors big drop in last week’s Newspoll…again! Don’t these people read? Well, anything but the Australian that is?
When even the Abe is just mouthing mindless assumptions I thank the lord for our Possum!
Maybe the rogue Newspoll has had its desired effect in leading the others down?
Or, there really was a legitimate drop, but Newspoll overcooked it due to some peculiarities of their methodology.
Either way, with Minchin’s outburst on the ETS showing once again that the Libs are a disorganised rabble of ratbaggery, expect the polls to rebound, or at least not continue the slide.
If the Libs think they have a serious shot at the next election, then they really are off with the fairies.
Yes, I’m thinking along those lines myself
Or indeed it wasn’t an outlier. If the -7 they got was made up of -2 support and -3 MoE instead of +2 in the previous survey (for example), then it’s just dumb luck that those things lined up this time instead of cancelling out.
Which is why you look at trends, and multiple pollsters, etc, obviously.
And overall, the broader view is that Rudd has taken a small hit. The fact that the Oz should clutch at any straw that allows them to paint this as the end of the ALP’s world should surprise no-one.
Newspoll is 56/44, so it looks like it overshot
Most likely it did. Happens.