Newspoll via The Oz today comes in with the primaries running 43 (up 2)/ 37 (down 4) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a 4 point gain to Labor since last fortnights Newspoll. This comes from a sample of 1162 for an MoE of around the 2.9% mark. The Greens are on 11 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are sitting on 9 (up 1).
Considering yesterday’s Essential Report, it would seem that whatever it was in the water is still there – polling volatility is the new black. A little later today we’ll take a closer look at this hypo behaviour from the pollsters over the last month or so.(UPDATE: Here it is)
This Newspoll looks a more historically consistent result with all the metrics now back in lockstep, particularly the net satisfaction/two party preferred nexus of the ALP:
On the individual satisfaction ratings, the asylum seeker issue (or whatever it is that’s been causing everyone to go berko on the vote estimates) has caused bit of grief for Rudd – but while his satisfaction is down and dissatisfaction up over the last month, a complimentary boost to Turnbull hasn’t eventuated. It becomes particularly obvious in the net satisfaction charts.
If you look at the preferred PM figures, it gets even more bizarre – almost as if no vote estimate volatility should have occurred at all!
It all begs the question of whether this was merely the “End of the Rudd Honeymoon” episode 422 or something else is going on.
11 Comments
If the Oceanic Viking issue is having any polling effect I’ll wager it’s losing Rudd more support from the left than the right. There is not some big swathe of voters desperate to switch to the coalition over boat people, but there are plenty of lefties who want to give Rudd a kick, even though he’s still their preferred PM.
Poss,
Is the raw data for “Net Satisfaction ratings” readily available? I’d like to do a (PM net – Op leader net) / 2, just to see what it looks like.
VP – the raw satisfaction and dissatisfaction numbers are on the Newspoll site, but you have to calculate the net figures.
So, the headline story for the ALP should be “massive swing back to Rudd and ALP after Turnbull announces revival of temporary protection visa/other bad Liberal policy”.
@Dave Gaukroger
I don’t know about that. The shock jocks and conservative press have been going completely apeshit about asylum seekers, and Sharman Stone has done a good job of getting out there and saying Rudd is soft.
The trendline for the formula in post 2 is:
Since Kevin Rudd became PM: from 16.5 to 23
Since Malcolm Turnbull became OL: from 8.5 to 31, virtually constant around 29 since 28 June 2009 with a dip in the latest poll.
Did I hear Barry Cassidy right? Did I hear him utter, quietly, under his breath the words “rogue poll” on his Insiders programme?
These ‘journalists’ are really despicable; grab some obviously dodgy looking numbers, wrap a story around it, kick it around for a week, and then quietly dispose of it out the back door while no one is looking.
Given the calculations I showed at #41 and #50 of http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/11/10/what-if-you-were-a-pollster-and-produced-an-outlier/comment-page-1/#comments (I also put similar on Poll Bludger and no-one has knocked over my arguments on either, perhaps because they came so late in the threads that few posters were still paying attention) the Coalition primary of 37 in this one is almost certainly better than the Coalition primary in that infamous asylum-seeker issue poll for which the breakdown wasn’t released. Perhaps significantly better.
The Australian doesn’t even try to hide its dishonesty these days. And as for Shameless Shamahan, I quote Gordon Lightfoot:
Spin Spin Spin
So fine, so fine the web you spin,
I come too close and I’m caught again!
In the web of wild design,
I do not know what fate is mine!
All the day sit and spin,
Spin your web and you draw me in.
Spin, spin, spin, spin!