Two years ago today saw the end of the Howard era, with the rare explanation mark added of Howard losing his own seat. This is what I posted that morning.
E-Day
The day has finally arrived. After months of campaigning that felt like years, after the 100 odd pieces of polling analysed, the rumors, the research, the tips and the leaks – in 12 hours time Australia will have a new Prime Minister.
The question will be the size of the majority, and we’ll get a good idea of that soon enough. The marginals will count, but the big nasty surprise in store will be what Crosby Textor calls “LNP 5-10%” – Coalition seats held on a 5-10% margin.
These have been problematic for the Coalition all year as we’ve seen with the Oztrack polling, and while the average size of the swing to the ALP in these seats has reduced over the last few months, the swing is still large enough to cut out a significant parliamentary majority.
The marginal seats will deliver most of the numbers needed to form an ALP government, and there will be marginals that buck the swing – but these semi marginals are where the action is and where the size of the majority will be defined.
A rather copious quantity of horsefluff has been written over the last week about The Narrowing, yet far from the marginals tightening for the Coalition, the late swing apparently is to the ALP, particularly in NSW, and particularly in the seats that are on the fringe of the marginal classification. This is why the two leaders didn’t waste their time in the last week of the campaign in those marginal seats – their fate was effectively decided weeks and months ago.
It’s why Rudd was out fox hunting in seats with up to double digit margins, and why Howard was following. Rudd was campaigning not just for this election, but for the next.
The West is still good for the Coalition, in terms of only one or two seats being likely to fall – maybe even zero in net terms, yet this election wont be going down to the wire, we wont be staying up all night waiting for the Sandgropers to decide the nations fate. That will be decided early, and the West will just be a curiosity to the final outcome.
So go and do your part for our democracy – man the booths, assist the booth workers or simply just exercise your franchise. This day is our day, your day, the day where that little piece of paper and its accompanying little pencil make all of us equal.
——-
To relive the day, the original comments thread can be seen here that covers election day morning. To relive the election night coverage, Poll Bludger had the cracker election night thread, while the reaction from after 8:00pm when the result was known can also be seen on my site here with a decicated post.
Thanks to all for making it such a great campaign.
9 Comments
just luv the memories
we all did good
Scanning back through the comments reminded me of when I knew the coalition was toast – when Ruddock turned up at my booth very late in the day trying to look bright but looking rather miserable. He went and spoke to the Liberals before coming over to us to chat (he always does). When he left the Libs manning the booth looked even more miserable than they had all afternoon. The booth swung strongly against him – stronger than at most other booths -and it was obvious to the Libs it was going to. I went home with such a spring in my step. Mind you being a nervous Nelly on this sort of thing I was still not happy till Howard conceded.
Ironically given my sentiments on the day I am actually grateful Ruddock is hanging in to avoid one of the hard right taking the seat. It was/is unpleasant having him as my local member but he is pale imitation of the ratbags trying to replace him.
Wow. Going back and reading it all I can remember the craziness.
Gee that was a brilliant night. I was sitting on the floor at a friend’s party in Canberra, obsessively watching the ABC coverage, freaking out friends with the fact that I knew the swing required for each marginal seat, and some not so marginal. All Poss’ influence of course.
I remember telling a friend that he had to pay CLOSE ATTENTION to what Antony was saying, as ANTONY WAS A PHSEPY GOD who must be respected. After Antony started calling everywhere for the ALP, my friend came to see my perspective. Heh.
I also seem to recall that I was very befuddled the next day, not sure how I’d got home. Turned out, the now MrLaurie had been stone-cold sober (poor Lib loving hubbie), and drove us home. Heh.
It sure was a fantastic night. one of the best parties i can remember… http://vierboom.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/election-07-best-party-ever/
Best birthday present ever. I’m not greedy, I only asked for a ALP win or failing that Howard to lose his seat and I got both.
Beautiful bit of writing! I knew it was going to be Labor, apart from one day of thinking “What if?”. But never, never, never did I imagine that revolting little rat John Howard would lose his own seat. I seem to remember Anthony Green making the point that if John Howard lost his own seat it would be the first time since….forgotten who, but it was way back when. And when Maxine McQew claimed Bennelong it was sweet.
I know Bennelong had become marginal-Liberal but I just could not believe it. Never did a bottle of Moet Chandon taste better. Especially as during the day I had had the chance of telling Peter Costello I would never vote for him or his party. Olé!
Poss, you were a beacon during the long months I was on our Greens NSW election campaign committee in 2007. Repeatedly people would freak out that Howard’s lot would be returned, but me and my mate Murray held firm, bolstered by your psephy genius.
Of course it was bittersweet for us, losing our Senator on an otherwise brilliant night, but at least our preferences counted towards the crushing rejection of the government.
Well done for bringing sanity to a crazy year!
My “The Poll that Counts” videos of election day/night in Canberra can be found here.