First up, the obligatory Opposition leadership speculation chart.
Next up, a few people have asked whether anyone runs a “Country heading in the Right/Wrong Direction?” question in the polls and how it stacks up. Well, Morgan does and it pretty much walks hand in hand with PM satisfaction ratings.
Finally, the ABS released some analytical cost of living indices on Monday that they measure quarterly. What they do is attempt to estimate how the cost of living has changed over any given period, for various types of households. If we look at the annual percentage change in the estimated cost of living, we get:
What’s interesting here is that in the 12 months to September this year, the cost of living for employees has actually reduced by 1%, compared to increases experienced by Age Pensioners (2.4%), other government transfer recipients like disability support pensioners and unemployment benefit recipients (1.6%) and self funded retirees (1.6%)
9 Comments
Beazley Mk1 and Latham quit didn’t they? That would make Nelson the most popular opposition leader to get rolled. And how did Hawke’s popularity stack up in his two bouts with Keating?
Dr MICK: Obviously I don’t have a clue what’s going on. As I would have thought Crean-is this Frank, or his son Simon? would have waltzed it in.
Possum: I’ve long had an issue with Morgan’s analysis of the “soft” Labor vote, in that he (certainly used to) base it on the heading in the right/wrong direction vote vs the Labor vote.
I note that, as you say, it is currently tracking pretty much with the PM satisfaction ratings: was this the case in Howard’s time? Morgan only compared the heading in the right/wrong direction with the Labor vote, rather than PM satisfaction.
If it has always come out that way, why do you think that is and if not, why is it different now? Different guy? Is it as simple as that?
Just before the last election, I thought the country was heading in the right direction because it was about to dump JWH!
Yes – the question is a poor one… as the assumptions drawn from it are erroneous. How do you know how many answered the way they did for the same reason you outrlined, as opposed to those who answered the same way but for completely the opposite reason.
Like with ETS questions – the inference drawn is that those who oppose the Rudd ETS are CC denialists or polluter supporters, when a substantial portion are opposed for the reason the ETS put forward is useless, and now even more so.
David@5:
Couldn’t agree more.
A related poor question is preferred opposition leader (at the moment).
My preferred opposition leader is a three way tie between Wilson Tuckey, Julie Bishop, and Tony (People Skills) Abbott.
But that choice would not be for the reasons that the pollsters think I am using.
Then again, maybe it should be MT after all. He is the most competent leader available, and that is why he should remain until the inevitable defeat at the next election.
That means that the other incompetents and wannabes are still in the wings, with field marshal’s baton in hand, ready to lead the poor bloody libs even deeper into the mire for an even longer period, giving us more entertainment than we’ve had for yonks.
This is a good time to be watching Oz politics.
We had a bad eleven years up to 2007, now we are being rewarded for our patience.
Similar poor questions abound all around us – on many forms you may be rwequired to fill in. The questions asked and options offered do not adequately reflect your view or the situation covered by the question concerned.
How often do you simply choose the best of a bad set of choices?
The problem is that the person who designs the question or the form knows what s/he means and presumes that the persons who have to answer or fill out the form are on the same track.
Usually that is not so.
And now Abbott’s out. This could go in two ways – lots of new blood to refresh the shadow ministry, or a bloodletting to set the dinosaurs properly in charge.
I’m hoping the lack of any visible opposition will not hasten the Labor party’s demise. Fortunately, the continual sniping and vituperation from the MSM should keep hubris down to a manageable level.