Like yesterday – particularly for you folks at work that can’t access the more interesting parts of the net – we’ll aggregate the best bits from around the place to follow The Spill in detail without the fluff. It won’t be flashy, just easy to follow – the time stamps will be in AEDT.
6:55
Via Latika Bourke (2UE)
Joe Hockey finally speaks. (well his office.) He contesteth, but will not vote againt Malcolm. No blood on his hands. #spill
Via Stephen Spencer (Ten)
It’s official: Joe is running. His office says he’ll vote against the spill, but if that succeeds he’ll run, offering a free vote on the ETS
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7:32 Via Stephen Spencer
Hockey’s office confirms it’s a ticket with Dutton.
It’s a Hockey/Dutton ticket. It’s pretty light on economics.
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7:51 Via James Massola (Canberra Times)
Reps doors so far:farmer 4 Abbott,Lindsay 4 turnbull,bilkson 4 hockey, jensen 4 Abbott #spill
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7:53 Via Latika Bourke
Minchin says claims any candidate would be his puppet are ‘incredible.’
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7:56 Via Samantha Maiden (The Oz)
Latest at The Oz. “A three way debacle” one MP texted this morning. Hockey the fave but could be in trouble. http://tiny.cc/RDPYn
That article in The Oz is worth a read.
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8:00am Bernard Keane on ABC News Radio reckons Kevin Andrews may also throw his hat in the ring
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8:10am
Turnbull says he won’t speculate on what he might do if he loses on ABC Radio’s AM program – calls rumours of him starting his own party “in the realm of science fiction”. Says his candidacy is the one with integrity of purpose.
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8:15 David Speers says Andrews isnt running.
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8:23 Via James Massola
Reps doors trending to abbott, just #spill
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8:25 Kieran Gilbert on Sky says that there’s about 12 votes in it and Hockey as the numbers.
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8:28 Samantha Maiden says:
Liberal senator Judith Troeth says she and 8 other senators will vote for Labor’s ETS – Rudd and Wong only need seven votes #spill
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8:46 Still the quiet before the storm. Annabel Crabb says :
Parliament full of Labor MPs with big grins #spill
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8:53 The press gallery is being herded into away from the MPs. A lot on not very happy scribes.
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8:56 In one of the weirdest things ever broadcast, ABC Breakfast interviewed Joe Hockey’s cousin who said that Joe wasnt ready for the leadership!
Good Grief – relatives, you can’t choose ‘em
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8:59 The Party room is filling up – Turnbull and Hockey have entered.
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9:03 This meeting could go for a very long time BTW.
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9:16 Via Annabel Crabb
Libs are being frisked at the door for mobiles. Nasty blow for text traffic. #spill
Chances of leaks have reduced dramatically
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9:31 While we’re waiting, some early thoughts on electoral consequences.
If Abbott wins, seats like North Sydney, Wentworth, Ryan, Sturt, La Trobe and Dickson are probably gone – with those leafy Victorian safe seats like Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein having their margins seriously cut. But seats like Cowper, Hinkler and Fairfax probably become safely kept by the Coalition.
If Hockey wins, the inner metro’s of Ryan, North Sydney, Wentworth and Sturt are probably kept (maybe even Dickson), but seats like Cowper, Hinkler, Fairfax, La Trobe, Fisher, Wright and maybe even Canning are most likely gone.
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9:40 40 minutes have passed now, I guess the spill motion passed and we’re on to a vote. Although there was talk about speeches being allowed, which could have dragged the thing out.
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9:43 The spill motion has apparently passed (how anyone knows since everyone was frisked going in is a bit of a mystery), so the result should be in 15-20 minutes
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9:49 Here we go – Alex Somlylay emerges, walks dont the corridor, puts on his best face and announces that Tony Abbott has won by 1 vote!
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9:52 Spill motion passed 48/34. Hockey was eliminated in first round with Turnbull getting 26 votes, Abbott 35 votes and Hockey 23.
The Abbott/Turnbull head to head went 42/41
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9:59 The numbers don’t add up. The spill went 48/34 which was 82 people
The first round had Turnbull=26, Abbott=35, Hockey=23 which is 84 people
Final round was Abbott=41, Turnbull=41 which is 83 people voting.
Who was the missing person!?!
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10:05 Turnbull’s office (via James Massola) says there was an informal vote in the final round and Fran Bailey abstained (she was granted special leave from the meeting today). Still doesnt explain anything
33 Comments
Thanks Poss (and Marsupial News Network)
Thanks Poss – blood sport should always be watched live and for someone living in the far north, this is as live as it gets
Andrews has said that he won’t run.
What’s this “ticket” thing – don’t the Liberabbles elect them separately?
Autocrat, often leadership contests have pairs running together because each can bring votes for the other that they ordinarily couldnt get.
Possum, do you think the Liberal MPs are informed of how badly an anti ETS would do for them in their own seats?
I know that they haven’t been informed properly Cud because some asked me about it – which was interesting. Normally it’s ALP backbenchers that do that sort of thing.
yikes..
Maybe they’re still reading out the minutes from the last meeting??
Poss do you really think Hockey would lose his seat in an Abbott lead coalition contesting the next election? What was the swing in 07?
Suddenly that question is more relevant?
ABBOTT!!!!!!!!
we live in interesting times
The Libs have had a religious experience ending with an Abbott and a Bishop in charge!
It’s Abbott! Tht’s is truly bizare
it just gets better and better
Abbott leading a divided party – the Libs are facing oblivion!
who abstained?
Maybe Joe voted for himself again and it wasn’t counted.
the vultures are circling
Joe dodged a bullet today.
Wait a minute – Hockey got 23 votes. That means 7 people who voted for Joe first time went for Abbott second time round?? I think the Libs should find out who these people are and check they are not secret ALP members.
The day the Liberal Party died…
Wilson Tuckey calling Hockey the village idiot is a howler!
Will the ALP now ditch the amended ETS and negotiate with the Greens for a real ETS that will work?
Will there be one or two Lib Senators that would go along with a Greens friendly ETS?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/shock-result-as-abbott-wins-liberal-leadership-by-one-vote–ets-dead-20091201-k1uz.html
But will 7 Lib Senators cross the floor…
David Richards: No, for several practical reasons.
1. There is no point. Even with all the ALP and Green votes in the Senate, they still need two more votes, which just aren’t there.
2. Even if the ALP and Greens managed to get a “greener” ETS through, it would be a pyhrric victory for the ALP. The main battle which the ALP is focussed on is with the Liberals, and an ETS passed without any Liberal “ownership” is an ETS which the Liberals can use to beat the ALP up with for any negative effects or implementation difficulties, for years to come. And there will be teething problems.
3. It would also be a pyhrric victory for the Greens. Their differentiation is being “greener than thou”, and if the ALP manages to pass a halfway effective ETS, even with Greens support, that means the Greens lose brand differentiation. They’ll bleed votes back to the ALP, when some voters decide “oh hey, the ALP aren’t so bad on the environment after all”. Thus the realpolitik dictates that The Greens can never compromise on this issue – they must always be able to stand up and say “If you’d voted for us, you’d have a REALLY effective scheme, instead of this mickey-mouse one”.
caf – yes, that is the way things will play out, given the idiocy of party politics.
It shows that both majors don’t really give a monkey’s about climate change. If the ALP were serious, they would leave the political gameplay aside and do a deal with the Greens. So too the Greens, if they were serious, they’d do a deal with the ALP.
The silly gameplay is why we always get crap public policy.
Labor refuses to deal with the Greens as they’d rather put the coalition through agony.
Politics before good policy. Par for the course.
A new bizarre result just occured to me – Minchin could have done a Gorton and run and won as leader, then jumped into a convenient Reps seat… if one could be found in SA.
Thanks again for this, Possum – and for the time stamps!