Politics, elections and piffle plinking

Newspoll – a close one

Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 40 (steady)/ 41 (up 3) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor. The Greens are on 12 (steady) while the broad “Others” are 7 (down 3). This comes from a sample of 1146, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

This is the equal lowest Newspoll primary and two party preferred vote for Labor since they’ve been in government, as we can see by taking a squiz at the Newspoll primary and TPP charts since January 2008.

newspollprimarylong newspolltpplong

It’s pretty clear that Abbott is on a honeymoon, at least according to Newspoll – but adding strength to the argument that it’s a real vote shift at the moment rather than a whimsical dipping of the toe into Coalition waters, it’s worth looking at our two party preferred vs. net satisfaction rating chart for Rudd:

marginsats

As Rudd’s satisfaction ratings dropped from October last year, so too did the Labor vote – what we would expect. So this shift isn’t just about Tony, but equally about both leaders – about Rudd’s relatively poor performance of late as well as Abbott being the new guy.

Abbott should have enjoyed a bit of a free kick over Christmas when Labor effectively took a holiday from politics, yet this week everyone is back, so Abbott’s real contest with the public starts pretty much today with his launch of the new Coalition climate change policy. Whatever happens though, he’s off to a pretty good start with the public.

The rest of the usual charts come in like this:

pmsatjan31 opsatjan31

netsatsjan31 ppmjan31

56 Comments

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  1. 51
    David Richards
    Posted February 4, 2010 at 3:52 pm | Permalink

    1934pc – oh really? then why were so many of the sites on the ACMA list nothing at all to do with pornl.. abortion sites, euthanasia/suicide sites, or anti-christian sites?

    The opposition is to a faceless gang who can add things to such alist on the basis of a single complaint and with no oversight or accountability. A bunch of holy roller Fred niles/Mary Whitehouse wannabes, with the potential for political censorship just like China’s.

    They took away a lot of freedoms on the excuse of the terrorism bogeyman, and are seeking to use the child porn Trojan Horse to further control the people.

    Nazi Germany and China are great role models for a supposed democracy like Australia to be following.

  2. 52
    Posted February 4, 2010 at 4:02 pm | Permalink

    I think that Conroy is whistling Dixie – to put it politely – regardless of how many times he bleats “it’s for a good cause”. Child Porn wont be affected by his filter.

  3. 53
    David Richards
    Posted February 4, 2010 at 4:21 pm | Permalink

    exactly – it won’t do anything to stop it because it does nothing to P2P, usenet, or other methods of diffusion.

    As that link posted by JamesK shows – the political censoring has already begun, how much easier when they can do it behind closed doors via ACMA and a a tame set of hand-picked zealots. The SA ALP has had to back down on its attempts at censoring political comments on the internet.

  4. 54
    Posted February 4, 2010 at 5:09 pm | Permalink

    They took away a lot of freedoms on the excuse of the terrorism bogeyman, and are seeking to use the child porn Trojan Horse to further control the people.

    Nazi Germany and China are great role models for a supposed democracy like Australia to be following.

    Undt ve vill loose all freedoms and be vorced into slavery and servitude.

    undt our brains will shrivel coz of ze increased microwaves.

    Ze zeppelin ist ready to take ze refugees to undt utopia.

  5. 55
    1934pc
    Posted February 5, 2010 at 8:53 am | Permalink

    David Richards, don’t worry it will never work, but don’t go overboard and worry too much, as Murdoch said, the Internet is full of Hackers, who will save YOU!.

  6. 56
    Posted February 5, 2010 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    ...] Newspoll 2010 February 5 tags: Barnaby Joyce, climate change, newspoll, Tony Abbott by ileum Newspoll out from The Australian earlier this week. Get the detail at Pollytics. [...

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