Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 40 (steady)/ 41 (up 3) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor. The Greens are on 12 (steady) while the broad “Others” are 7 (down 3). This comes from a sample of 1146, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.
This is the equal lowest Newspoll primary and two party preferred vote for Labor since they’ve been in government, as we can see by taking a squiz at the Newspoll primary and TPP charts since January 2008.
It’s pretty clear that Abbott is on a honeymoon, at least according to Newspoll – but adding strength to the argument that it’s a real vote shift at the moment rather than a whimsical dipping of the toe into Coalition waters, it’s worth looking at our two party preferred vs. net satisfaction rating chart for Rudd:
As Rudd’s satisfaction ratings dropped from October last year, so too did the Labor vote – what we would expect. So this shift isn’t just about Tony, but equally about both leaders – about Rudd’s relatively poor performance of late as well as Abbott being the new guy.
Abbott should have enjoyed a bit of a free kick over Christmas when Labor effectively took a holiday from politics, yet this week everyone is back, so Abbott’s real contest with the public starts pretty much today with his launch of the new Coalition climate change policy. Whatever happens though, he’s off to a pretty good start with the public.
The rest of the usual charts come in like this:
56 Comments
Possum writes:
Newspoll – a close one
Well, not according to their ABC:
“COALITION OVERTAKES LABOR IN NEWSPOLL”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/01/2807260.htm
Thanks Poss, the stats tell a somewhat different story to ABC this morning- all the additional votes for the Libs came from the Others category- not as ABC lead us to believe from the labor party. perhaps the shift is the disenfranchised ex One Nation etc voters moving back to Liberal with Tony Abbott as somewhat of a Neocon poster boy?
Not to mention the high preponderance of bovver boys, skinheads, klansmen and sundry fascists who have returned to the Liberals now they have ousted Turnbull….
Besides those type predominate in in Newspoll polls…….
Subtle but I get your drift oldskool.
THe shift has been in the broad Others category JamesK- Where are you suggesting that the shift is coming from- not Labor, not Greens, then who?
Ahem, stupid question on MoE.
MoE of 2.9% means the actual score could lie + or – 2.9% or +/- 1.45%?
Marius Benson asked the Newspoll boss this morning if there were any differences with women showing up after last week’s fuss over virginity. He said that the only thing of note was that in the move from undecideds on satisfaction/dissatisfaction for People Skills that a larger percentage of women moved into the dissatisfied group than men. He then went on about Tony solidifying the base etc etc etc. It is the one at 7.45 http://www.abc.net.au/newsradio/
I am wondering if this visit by an American President will do more for the PM than the last visit did for the previous PM? And will People Skills be able to stay diplomatic?
+/- 2.9% Evan, or in this case with rounding, an even 3.
ABC – Fran Kelly was funny this morning, talking up the newspoll result and then going hard in an interview with the health minister (Roxon) re. means testing of the private health rebate – she followed the line that wouldn’t cutting the rebate put more pressure on public hospitals because people would drop their cover.
Following the interview with the Lord Monk the previous week…
But the MOE is an arbitrarily defined line in the sand. I assume that the MOE usually quoted is the 2 sigma value, which means you have a ~95% chance that that ‘real’ value lies within the error range, or in other words a 5% chance (1 in 20) that the real value does not lie within the error range.
This is why I only read stuff like Pollytics of Antony Green when it comes to polls; the vast majority of the media treats each poll either on it’s own or at best in comparison to the previous one, which generally doesn’t tell you very much. Possum’s trend charts and analysis and far more useful!
bah second para, of should be or.
Sorry to do this but this poll doesn’t work for me, I’ll explain. When I saw the headline comments on lateline last night I could only see one possibility, the Greens had lost 2% which had gone back to the alp which had lost 3% to the coalition. the reason I say this is that the 2% increase in the tpp for the coalition should have come from the alp/greens. So it was with confusion that I see a drop in others, which are wingnuts, and then this great jump in tpp. It does not make sense,. Anyone out there, help me out here. Surely the wingnuts would have been distributed to the coalition tpp anyway.
Interesting the tone of both ABC NEWS RADIO and RN appears to have changed politically over the last couple of months. As in give Ministers a hard time and plenty of air time for Opposition spokespersonsAlso last night Kerry O’Brien gave the Treasurer a somewhat tougher time than is his want, which Swan didn’t have too much trouble with.
It will be interesting to see and hear the ABC’s attitude to Abbott when he is i/v’d on his climate policy today. It seems the winds of change are blowing not only through the News Ltd poll. Of course we should ask, is this just another spike?
The next Morgan and Galaxy polls will tell a story.
Why is it they always ignore the Essential Report?. shows 56/44
Why would Rudd drop? 1) School league tables – divisive b/s, bringing out the worst classist (I’d thought we’d removed that word in 1989) traits in governments.
Health
2) A perception he doesn’t do much
3) A perception he does too much (different voters, obviously)
4) Appalling treatment of asylum seekers
5) He didn’ get rid of Howard after all – Howard’s back in Tony Abbott..
6) Internet filters
7) Telstra
9) In NSW, at least, Tripodi and Obeid. And Keneally – usually voters do separate state issues, but not in this case…
I’m missing some stuff.
I predict though that Tony Mad Monk will lead Liberal to its worst election defeat ever. Labor will hold power, but with Green preferences…
Newspoll is the preferred ABC poll. They take no notice of any other organisations in the federal sphere possibly because it does not fit in with the spin that Tony is in the race.
PS _ the chap with sunglasses above should be an 8 …. apologies…
Meh. Abbott has been dominating the news over the summer holiday with hardly a peep from rudd and labor. I’m not surprised by this result. I would be surprised if it translates into long term support, particularly as the policy pressure comes on to abbot.
Steven, I think you’re right and I hope you are.
But why have Rudd et al given a sucker an even break here? Abbott’s filled the news void all summer long, with pretty much SFA from the government to combat him.
It does seem arrogant to me for the government not to have engaged more over the break. I hope they get their act together quickly.
Hi Poss, I notice you get another plug from the ABC News website: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/02/2807628.htm?site=thedrum
If the level of disappointment with Kevin Rudd among ALP voters is anything like among the people I know personally, this could go part of the way to explaining… however it seems Kevin Rudd’s personal approval rating is not taking as much of a hit.
He’d better start to appear less gutless or Mad Monk Abbot will continue to give him a run for his money right up to election time, and may scrape enough self-respect for us to have to put up with him as Coalition leader for another term… eugh.
there was a tip in Crikey from an ALP insider that they had deliberately said nothing over the vacation and given Abbott a free kick, sure in the knowledge that he would say something to hang himself, and sure enough he came up with the virginity riff.
Once Parliament begins Abbott will be in a bind – either he has to ask every single question himself, and will get roasted by Gillard, or he lets his front bench front up, and the public gets to see Lazy Joe, Beetroot-face Barnaby and the Toxic Bishops.
I still don’t think Abbott will make it to the election
I think we all knew that KR was pretty hopeless, but we didn’t realise quite how hopeless.
I guess best result for this year would be an upswing in green votes, Labor dips a little in the result but still forms government, and the Labor knives are out for KR.
I hope the knives are out for Conroy and a few others as well.
I do sense that generally the early appeal of Rudd’s I’m-just-another-conservative schtick is wearing off for people and they’re starting to ask what his government has actually achieved (aside from following Treasury’s advice on fiscal easing and sparing the economy from the recession hitting everywhere else).
Playing up his own colourlessness worked for him earlier on, but it now seems to be a liability. However loathsome he might be, Abbott has succeeded in characterising Rudd as all-talk-no-action. And his media management (Abbott in speedos, Abbot in marathon, Abbott cycling around Canberra) provides a neat action-man contrast to Rudd’s passive and pink-cheeked windyness.
Of course, this will only work for so long. There will have to be a more substantial follow-through from the coalition. But for now, Rudd looks worried. Personally, I think the better foil for Abbott is not Rudd, but Gillard. While Abbott makes Rudd look like a milksop, Julia makes Tony look like the boofhead he is. And Labor needs to show what it IS actively achieving, not what it has sent to a committee on the never-never.
I also find it hard to believe that this leakage of votes to the Coalition from Labor (assuming that is what is happening here) will continue once the media spotlight focuses more on the Opposition frontbench. Surely, surely, people will baulk at changing their vote in favour of a a bunch of dinosaurs, climate change denialists, xenophones, fruitcakes and ugly wingnuts as represented by Minchin, Abbott, Joyce, the Bishops (Julie and Bronwyn), Mirabella etc; etc;
What an embarrassment to the world Australia will be if that lot win. Ugh.
Oh noes, the narrowing!
Can you show us what happened during the Latham honeymoon and if it is in any way similar to what is occurring now?
Partisan firebrand wins the leadership by a single vote. There’s at least one similarity.
At a casual glance the TPP looks to have closed by 8 (plus/minus 4 each) since early december.
Pardon me for saying so but is the technical term not ‘teh narrowing’?
Normally I would have been anxious about Labor dropping in the polls, having been a strong supporter for many years, but ever since Rudd hatched a set of plans for China-style mandatory internet censorship (which will be introduced into parliament in a few weeks), I was actually delighted by today’s results.
Frankly, I hope the government drops even further in the polls. They deserve it.
hear hear Anthony.
Did you catch that recent China bashing over internet censorship by the yanks?
Rudd and Conroy want us to join China as internet pariah states.
Not to mention a whole raft of other issues on which Rudd and co have either been disappointing or even just as bad as Howard ever was.
Housing, Health, social equity issues, asylum seekers, militarism.
After Abbott’s performance on the 7:30 Report tonight, I’d say the honeymoon is already over.
Yeah kick rudd out cos of the internet filter
I have heard it all now
Hate to disappoint the Holy Order of the Sacrd Intertubes, but the shift to the Liberals came not from Labor, nor the Greens, but from OTHERS, such as Family First, the Christian Democrats and and every other religious nutjob who warms to Abbot’s Medievil attitude to sex and women.
Hey Poss, I’m sure you’ve looked at how strong the relationship is between net satisfaction rating and voting intention with previous PMs. Has the relationship beensimliar for the Rudd as PM and the conga line of opposition leaders since the ’07 election? Also, does cross correlation suggest whether net satisfaction or voting intention leads the other? Have there ever been any polls on how satisfied the Greens or other minor parties are with their leaders?
Sooooo…………
The drop in d’ALP primary vote since Jan ’08 to now does NOT go to Coal but to “OTHERS”.
And the rise in the Coal since Jan ’08 is NOT from d’ALP but is in fact from “OTHERS”.
That is soo disappointing………
What stuns me is the amount of people who actually defend Rudd and Labor when a monkey can see the waste and bull this Government is spinning. Are Australians really that stupid? Sure Abbott has not proven anything yet, which is why I thought there would be more undecided voters. People look at the faliures so far in 2 years by this pathetic bunch and open your eyes to who we want to run our once beautiful country.
GBS1,
People said the same thing about Howard. Partisan swings and roundabouts.
“Yeah kick rudd out cos of the internet filter” When you have been connected to the Internet as long as I have, you will realise nothing can be blocked for long.
To change your vote over this issue, is stupid.
GBS1, If the Senate was not being used as a Bank vault by the opposition, has it occurred to you Rudd might have achieved more?.
i think abbott is doing well because there are more people out there who are sceptical of global warming than you realise, and he is the only politrician giving voice to those doubts.
it is quite wrong to characterise all sceptics as rabidly right wing
i am what you would call a left wing sceptic of AGW and i have gone completely off the rudd govt because of their emissions trading scheme which, as abbott quite rightly points out imho, is a great big new tax on everything while at the some time it excuses the big polluters.
i think for that reason, amongst the other factors discussed above, abbott has bounced in the polls. i won’t vote for him however. couldn’t do it. he will however give the govt a hell of a run for their money…
Concern trolling?
“i think abbott is doing well ” because of one Newspoll?, a Murdoch right wing paper, try looking for other indications like the Essential Report brought out on the 1st Feb, 56/44,
he won’t last because he will put his foot in his mouth before long!.
What caused the swing to the Coalition? Just a thought.
As a labor voter I cheered when Kev got in, read the polls indicating maybe 100 seats in the next parliament, fantastic. But now I am not really impressed with what the labor party has achieved.
So what do I do? Write a letter? Send an email?
Won’t achieve a damn thing.
Then one evening someone rings and asks would I like to take part in a survey about my voting intentions.
Instead of telling the truth I tell them I’m going to vote for the coalition and that Abbott is the greatest leader since Menzies. Maybe that will have some effect on Kev.
How many of those polled think like me?
“”But now I am not really impressed with what the labor party has achieved.”" try getting anything through the Senate, and I mean ANYTHING!.
I think the side of politics perennially intent on diminishing freedom of the citizenry deserves 1934pc’s perpetual vote.
Even 15% of Russians after the fall of USSR still believed in Uncle Joe as their knight in shining armor.
Is 1934pc Australia’s 15% standard-bearer?
1934pc said (post 42)
“”But now I am not really impressed with what the labor party has achieved.”” try getting anything through the Senate, and I mean ANYTHING!.
As Bob Brown pointed out on Lateline last night, the stimulus package was an ALP Greens Cross Bench innitiative, the fact that Rudd wants all the credit and paints the ‘hostile Senate’ perception is exactly what is going wrong for the ALP. They are believing their own spin after 24 months. Stop it your going blind. The fact that there is some movement in the polls should be of great concern for them but I guess that I’ll be attacked for being a right wing troll.
Barking, Not according to the Essential Report on the 1st Feb, you obviously only read the Murdoch’s Australian, the man that backed Bush up to the Hilt!.
JamesK, If you were at all Internet competent, you would know you can circomvent ANY restriction placed on your use of the Internet, if you do not know how, that is your problem!.
@1934pc
Well I don’t really want to break the law when I know my freedom is being restricted however incompetently.. I’m probably a member of the internet 85% incompetents.
Whatddya think of this:
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/more-censorship-rudd-epic-fail-group-goes-offline/
Can you ‘get around’ it ?
Intelligence is the ability to solve problems, and I am extremely suspicious of people complaining about Internet restrictions when the main object of these restrictions is to prevent people accessing child PORNOGRAPHY.
1934pc,
The road to hell is paved with good intentions, technological ignorance and political imbeciles.
Are you agreeing or disagreeing, PC ??.
1934pc – oh really? then why were so many of the sites on the ACMA list nothing at all to do with pornl.. abortion sites, euthanasia/suicide sites, or anti-christian sites?
The opposition is to a faceless gang who can add things to such alist on the basis of a single complaint and with no oversight or accountability. A bunch of holy roller Fred niles/Mary Whitehouse wannabes, with the potential for political censorship just like China’s.
They took away a lot of freedoms on the excuse of the terrorism bogeyman, and are seeking to use the child porn Trojan Horse to further control the people.
Nazi Germany and China are great role models for a supposed democracy like Australia to be following.
I think that Conroy is whistling Dixie – to put it politely – regardless of how many times he bleats “it’s for a good cause”. Child Porn wont be affected by his filter.
exactly – it won’t do anything to stop it because it does nothing to P2P, usenet, or other methods of diffusion.
As that link posted by JamesK shows – the political censoring has already begun, how much easier when they can do it behind closed doors via ACMA and a a tame set of hand-picked zealots. The SA ALP has had to back down on its attempts at censoring political comments on the internet.
Undt ve vill loose all freedoms and be vorced into slavery and servitude.
undt our brains will shrivel coz of ze increased microwaves.
Ze zeppelin ist ready to take ze refugees to undt utopia.
David Richards, don’t worry it will never work, but don’t go overboard and worry too much, as Murdoch said, the Internet is full of Hackers, who will save YOU!.