Today’s Nielsen via the Fairfax press has the Coalition up 1 on the primaries and Labor steady to come in at 42/42, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 to Labor – a one point gain to the Coalition since last month. The Greens are on 9 (down 1) while the broad “Others” are on 5 (down 2). This comes from a sample of 1400, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark. You can see the full demographic tables here.
We’re going to do something a bit different today and look at approval ratings, preferred PM and win expectations by party vote. To start with, approval ratings for both Rudd and Abbott.
Next up, preferred PM ratings by party vote:
Nielsen also ask a question occasionally on win expectations – as in, which party do you think will win the next election. To put it into historical context, this is what the results were at the final Nielsen poll before each of the last four elections.
This is what the win expectations look like currently – broken down by party vote.
Later today, We’ll also take a big squiz at the other half of the Nielsen poll in a separate post that deals with questions on Rudd’s new health proposal and which party is considered best to manage an array of issues. The usual charts come in like this:
12 Comments
The “think will win table” has some rows switched I think, currently 84% of ALP voters think the Coalition are going to win !?
The PPM table is now fixed too.
Nearly all the increase in the Liberal vote in recent months has been at the expense of the Greens.
The Labor Primary in SA is a worry, if true. Possum do you have any previous SA figures for a comparison.
so is the who will win the next election how does than pan out is that above
todays poll numbers if so is this a better indication.
Greeny – the SA sample is pretty small for each Nielsen, about 110 for an MoE on that of about 9%.
Last Nielsen poll SA came in on a TPP for Labor of 57/43. The SA numbers have usually been higher for Labor for 2 years than the national average, and it’s often been their best performing state. The numbers in the sidebar on the right for Quarter 4 2009 are a pretty good example of that.
Mysay,
Win expectations like this are just another interesting bit to throw into the mix. Morgan runs the same question – so it might be worth a specific look at what they might mean this week sometime.
i find that a curious question if you say, tick the coalition box, say then ask who will win and you say labor, what does that then tell you.
my say,
It tells us how confident each parties supporters are of winning the next election.
What I find works surprisingly well is that if you allocate half the undecided on the ‘who will win’ question to each side and compare with the betting market implied probabilities, the population breakdown agree with the probabilities to within ~2%!
heh, nifty!
However, the poll finds 51 per cent of voters back the Coalition on the economy, compared with 42 per cent for Labor.
Poss, How does this compare to other recent polls?.
Thanks Poss, for a bit of perspective. The Age, which has become alarmingly right wing of late, has the Coalition already home and hosed-unless they are mounting a negative scare campaign.
Would you say the ‘Don’t knowers’ are the swinging vote; or the ‘I don’t give a damn’(ites)? Logic tells me the Polls would have sifted out the latter, but I’m not sure of anything anymore.
PS: If you have a spare moment or two you might look up today’s Herald Sun, and a double page spread written by one Alan Howe. It is the most sickening piece of racist and Fascist filth I’ve ever read. And I’ve read Mein Kampf. Be warned, you may wish to take a bath after reading it.
Are you talking about this?
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/were-safer-why-argue/story-e6frfhqf-1225837940398