There was some interesting behaviour this week in the markets with Centerbet, IASbet and Sportingbet all having a nap, while Betfair had a small move towards Labor and Sportsbet went berko!
The “Any Other Party” on Sportsbet (read “Coalition”) moved from $3.80 to a whopping $4.70, while Labor pulled in to $1.18, down from its $1.25 last Friday.
Sportsbet has opened up the range of implied probabilities for a Labor victory to a substantially large 7.6% across the 5 agencies, with Centerbet having Labor on a 72.3% win probability and Sportsbet coming in at the other end of the spectrum on a 79.9% implied probability.
This has upped the 5 agency aggregated implied probability for Labor this week to 75.7% – a 1.3% increase towards the red team.
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Watch the Abbottariat go crazy churning out the Talking Points for the weekend ahead, knowing that Newspoll is ‘in the field’ collating public sentiment. The ABC is quick to the breech, running wall-to-wall Greg Hunt voice-grabs this morning.
Just wondering about something…
As the betting markets become better known as a pointer towards election outcomes, might this affect the independence of the price-setters? I know that the price of the two parties is meant to be determined by the amount of money coming in for each of them, but presumably the person who makes the final call is not entirely objective?
Also, tautology alert – what is ’substantially large’?
Wow, are those number still current?? There’s an arbitrage opportunity between Centrebet and Sportbet on those numbers! I’m surprised the pro-punters haven’t evened the market out.
Bogdan – this far out, the arb opportunity isnt worth the discount rate on the investment
Stephen – hypothetically they could, but there’s competition between the agencies, so anyone one or two agencies that get too far out of whack with the others will be open to gaming and arbitrage. It’s pretty hard to run a profitable book by distorting the prices too much when there is both competition and large amounts of polling data.
The end of Abbotts honeymoon,
The end of the narrowing.
What’s going on here poss? Do you know the size of these markets? Can Sportsbet’s movement be explained by one big bet?
In case anyone is interested, the arbitrage is about 2.3% if you size your bets to get all the arb on an ALP win and just have a Coalition win exactly cover your bets.
So you’re still better off putting your money in a run of the mill online savings account (unless you think Rudd is about the pull the trigger).
You’ve got 6 readings now Poss – time to fire up the polynomial trend line
It’s the denarrowing!
Sorry to be dim-witted Poss: But “The “Any Other Party” on Sportsbet (read Coalition) tend to be..”
Do you mean Sportsbet tend to favour the Opposition, or that “Any Other Party” = Coalition. I think the latter; just checking.
Venise – some agencies offer the bet on the question “Which party will win the election” and then have Labor and the Coalition as the two choices available.
Sportsbet offer, as their two choices, the ALP and “Any Other Party”.
Effectively that “Any Other Party” is actually the Coalition since there’s no one else around it could possibly be.
I suppose that, to the international batting market, “Labo(u)r” is a reasonably recognisable term, whereas the various oddball names used by the anti-proletariat parties could be confusing.
Wonder why that might be?
I just don’t understand all this??? So many people I speak to state tthey will not vote for Rudd, but these figures state very different. Why would you vote in such a lier and a governmetn that has cost us the Australian public so much loss with the many failures with policy, and waste of money? Oh well, sad as it is I guess best get use to the fact Labor will get in and continue to run this coountry into the ground. I wish I could understand all this
Obviously
GBS1, things really don’t seem that bad? The country is ticking over pretty OK as far as I can tell.
GBS1, To have failures you have to do something, THINK about THAT, insulation for instance, are more people going to benefit from the project than do not, from the figures available considerably more are on the plus side.
Considering the shonks prepared to rip of ANY scheme where they think there’s a buck in it, I’m amazed there was not more of a problem, remember your dealing with human animals!.
Let me explain it to you – falling unemployment during the worst world recession since WWII.
There you go. Wasn’t that hard to grasp was it?
GBS1:
I take you never voted ALP in your life. I would also guess that the people you associate with never voted that way either. So when you say….
<i.So many people I speak to state tthey will not vote for Rudd
I am not surprising. What you should be asking your friends/associates ‘If you voted ALP last time around, would you vote that way again?’