This week we’ve seen movement back towards the Coalition from our two betting agencies that moved against them last week, while the others continue to remain on their month long steady course. Sportsbet was the bigger mover, plunging $1.20 for the Coalition to bring them back to $3.50, while Betfair pulled back 20 cents to come in at $4 even.Our weekly change numbers look like this:
We can see the recent volatility in Sportsbet by looking at the Coalition price of our 5 agencies since the beginning of February when we started tracking.
The implied probabilities come in like this:
While our 5 agency implied probability across time comes in like this:
4 Comments
Someone probably dumped a reasonable amount of money on Labor last week at Sportsbet and this week someone took advantage of the higher resulting odds for the coalition. I suspect sporting bet are simply covering themselves. I doubt there is much money being placed just yet.
@Dave55
Not sure about Sportsbet, but betfair has had $25,000 pound put on the Australia Federal Election. Two big bets (approx. 6000 pounds) have been put on labor. Here’s the betfair markets over the last month or so. It will be interesting to see when more money starts coming in.
http://screencast.com/t/M2UzYzVmNWI
What caused the spike on the 14th March?. and the coalition seems to have only 20% of the stake!.
With today’s SA Election we have a real test of the betting market. The last newspoll has Libs up 52-48, but the last Centrebt odds were ALP: $1.40; Libs $2.90.
I know the LIbs need a big swing, but hell, $2.90?? (and at sportingbet they were $3.00!)
I suppose the betting pool for a state election is much smaller, but if the Libs win, you’d have to say that’s a big hit to the “betting markets are a better guide than the polls”
Does anyone know what the odds were at the last WA election?