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Essential Report – Stimpak Support

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 43 (down 2)/ 39 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a two point increase to the Coalition. The Greens and the broad “Others” are unchanged on 9 a piece. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1902, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

This is a rather interesting Essential Report, not only because the vote numbers for the ALP went down- but because Abbott’s approval ratings fell in a ditch over the much of the same period.Not only were additional questions asked on approval ratings, but levels of support for various components of the stimulus package, which party and leader is better trusted to manage health and hospital reform, the outlook on economic and employment conditions and the personal financial situation outlook.

These additional questions run off a sample of 1104, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

rudtotalappsmar29

ruddappstrengthmar29 Rudddisappstrengthmar29

On the cross-tabs we have:

92% of Labor voters approve of the job Rudd is doing as Prime Minister, 4% disapprove and 4% don’t know.

79% of Coalition voters disapprove of the job Rudd is doing and 15% approve.

72% of Green voters approve of the job Rudd is doing.

.

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

abbotttotalappmar29

abbottappstrengthmar29 abbottdisappstrengthmar29

On the cross-tabs, we have:

72% of Coalition voters approve of the job Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader, 19% disapprove and 10% don’t know. In February the comparative figures were 79% approve and 12% disapprove.

73% of Labor voters disapprove of the job Abbott is doing (up from 58%), 16% approve (down from 28%).

75% of Green voters disapprove of the job Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader (up 7%).

The largest shifts in approval occurred with older voters – among those aged 55+, approval has dropped from 61% to 42% and disapproval increased from 31% to 50%.

Voters for other parties have also shifted substantially – from 36% approval to 17% and from 46% disapproval to 70%.

Also worth showing is the large change in Abbott’s Net Approvals this poll:

netappsmar29

.

Who do you trust most to deliver better health care for people like you and your family – Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott?  Which party do you trust most to deliver better health care for people like you and your family – the Labor Party the Liberal Party?

healthcaremar29

What we see here is that Abbott brings a slightly positive health care effect to the table for the Liberal Party.On the cross-tabs, Essential tells us:

Results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to think trust Rudd (84%) and the Labor Party (89%) to deliver better health care.

Coalition voters were more likely to trust Abbott (68%) and the Liberal Party (73%) to deliver better health care.

12% of Coalition voters trust Rudd and 6% trust Labor to deliver better health care.

.

Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

econconditionstablemar29

econconditionsmar29

On the cross-tabs we have:

Labor voters were more likely to think conditions will get better (73%) and Coalition voters were more likely to think conditions will get worse (28%).

Males were more likely to think things will get better (59%) while females were more likely to think conditions will stay much the same
(26%).

There were no significant differences in terms of age.

.

Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

finsituationmar29On the cross-tabs we have:

Labor voters were more likely to think their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months (51%) while Coalition voters were more likely to think their situation will get worse (27%).

People aged 25 – 34 were more likely to think their personal financial situation will get better (48%), those aged 45 – 54 were more likely to think their situation will get worse (28%) and people aged 65 years and over were more likely to think their situation will stay much the same (44%).

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How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?

joblosstablemar29joblossconcernmar29

The cross-tabs tell us:“People aged 45 – 54 were more likely to be very/somewhat concerned that they or someone in their immediate family will lose their job over the next year or so (45%).”

.

Do you support or oppose the following parts of the Government’s economic stimulus package?

stimpaksupport1mar29

The cross-tabs say:

Labor voters were more likely to support money for school building construction and maintenance (82%), public and community housing (75%) and the $950 bonuses for people on low and middle incomes (75%).

Coalition voters were more likely to support tax breaks (67%).

55% of Green voters, 49% of Labor voters and 17% of Coalition voters support the free ceiling insulation for 2.7 million homes.

On the history of this question we get:

stimpaksupport2mar29

.

Do you think the Government should continue to invest and spend to support economic recovery or should they address the deficit and start cutting back on spending?

stimpaccontinuancemar29The cross-tabs tell us:

Labor voters were more likely to think the Government should continue to invest and spend to support economic recovery (53%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think the Government should address the deficit and start cutting back on spending (76%).

People aged 65 years and over were more likely to think the Government should address the deficit and cut back on spending (60%), while people aged 18 – 24 were more likely to indicate they don’t know (24%).

Males were also more likely to agree the Government should address the deficit and cut back on spending (55%).

In other news – and as a bit of teaser -  I have in my furry little paws some pretty amazing political market research on Abbott and Rudd. It’s taking a while to do it justice as there’s a lot to explore, but hopefully I’ll have something to say about it tomorrow, Wednesday at the latest.

It’s worth the wait.

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  • 1
    Cat
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 2:39 pm | Permalink

    I have always believed the public’s attitude to politicians displayed more than a touch of MPD and this poll alone pretty much confirms it for me.

    Poss wrote: In other news – and as a bit of teaser – I have in my furry little paws some pretty amazing political market research on Abbott and Rudd.

    I am not sure whether it is a sign of maturity or just sad that I am far more interested in this than the latest exploits of Tiger Woods or Sandra Bullock’s hubby.

  • 2
    Eratosthanes
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 3:01 pm | Permalink

    $2.70 in business tax breaks???? – even for a Labor government that’s a little stingy isn’t it?

    I think there’s a missing ‘billion’ in there somewhere.

  • 3
    Eratosthanes
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 3:07 pm | Permalink

    This poll says to me what most of us have hinted at a few times over the last couple of months. It’s okay to be opositional about legislation that would mean citizens paying more to government – but if your opositional about the government SPENDING money on all of those lovely warm cuddly things like a childs education andd more doctors and nurses to look after people then you better have a really good argument. Abbott doesn’t.

    I’d expect to see a significant move in the TPP back to Labor in line with the change in approvals.

    In fact, Poss, any chance you could give us the chart you sometimes do with TPP vs Rudd approval to see where it’s at?

  • 4
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 3:11 pm | Permalink

    Eratoshthanes – I do the net approval vs. TPP with Newspoll, which is conveniently out tonight/tomorrow.

    And may well you scoff at that $2.70 tax break – it appears to be very popular! :-D

    Sometimes, they say, it’s the little things that count :-P

  • 5
    Keith is not my real name
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 3:12 pm | Permalink

    Oh prezzies :D

  • 6
    Nipper Quigley
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    Abbott’s disapproval with the +55′s is soaring yet Primary support for LNP goes up 1%. WTF!
    Looks like cognitive dissonance setting in here – where these gentle folk are beginning to seriously dislike Abbott but could never vote Labor.
    Must assume they can rationalize it somehow – I can’t.
    But I’m only 54.

  • 7
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 5:18 pm | Permalink

    A Crikey/Pollytics exclusive starting tomorrow – real time demographic drill down reactions into the health debate using the spiffy Roy Morgan Reactor technology.

    How did males vs females react? What about age cohorts? By voting intention? Whose buttons did the leaders press and when on what issues? What messages work with which demographics?

    All will start to be exclusively revealed tomorrow – here, the email and, er, wherever good Crikey products are found! :-P

  • 8
    Mobius Ecko
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    OK how much is the MSM ad naseum(nausea) blitz on super duper ironman Abbott whilst dumping on nasty disengenuous Rudd going to play out in the next polls.

    Don’t know the veracity of this but ABC News Radio reported a triathalon competitor named Rudd who is two years older than Abbott easily beat him by a large margin.

    Could Abbott know of his slide in the polls so engaged in this nauseus media blitz on his ironman challange? Could that be related to your revelation tomorrow?

  • 9
    Mobius Ecko
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    That should be ABC News Breakfast.

  • 10
    savemejeebus
    Posted March 29, 2010 at 5:59 pm | Permalink

    Mobius Ecko @ March 29, 2010 at 5:19 pm

    ad nauseam – lit. to sickness

  • 11
    Mobius Ecko
    Posted March 30, 2010 at 7:15 am | Permalink

    I know savemejeebus but was posting from my inadequate small screen PDA and wanted to convey both ad nauseam and nausea but blew it.

  • 12
    Holden Back
    Posted March 30, 2010 at 10:33 am | Permalink

    I’m waiting for the ‘Newspoll is a vicious Labor front’ comments. And sneaking over to the Oz site to snigger at the Baron Von Shanahan’s squirming.

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  1. ...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Pollytics. Pollytics said: Essential Report – stimpaks, approvals and all sorts of charty goodness http://is.gd/b4xoV [...

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