This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 42 (up 3) /37 (down 3) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 50/50 – a 3 point gain to the Blue team. The Greens are steady on 11 while the broad “Others” are steady on 10. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1762, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.
This makes the most recent polls coming in as 51, 50, 50, 50 for the Coalition from Newspoll, Morgan Phone Poll, Nielsen and Essential Report respectively. Spot the trend!
Essential also asked additional questions this week on taxation, the attributed of Kevin Rudd & Tony Abbott and the importance of issues on voting intention. These additional questions came from a sample of 989, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark.
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The Federal Government recently announced changes to our tax system as a result of the Henry Report, which was a review of Australia’s taxation. Do you approve or disapprove of the following Government proposals?
(click to expand)
On the cross-tabs, essential tells us:
78% of Labor voters approved higher taxes on mining company profits (11% disapprove) and 56% of Liberal/National voters disapproved (35% approve).
Increasing superannuation contributions received high support from both Labor (85%) and Liberal/National voters (72%). 61% of both Labor and Liberal/National voters supported cutting company tax rates.
63% of Labor voters and 69% of Liberal/National voters approved increasing taxes on cigarettes and alcohol.
Interesting too is that the cigarette tax had the highest level of strong disapproval, adding a little bit of evidence to our theory that smokers have clobbered the government over the last fortnight, assisting the sharpness of the fall this polling cycle.
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Overall, from what you have read and heard, do you think the Federal Government is heading in the right direction on taxation or the wrong direction on taxation?
On the cross-tabs, we have:
Opinions split very much along party lines – 65% of Labor voters said right direction (12% wrong direction) and 61% of Liberal/National voters said wrong direction (17% right direction).
People on higher incomes ($1,600+ pw) were more likely to think the Government was headed in the right direction (40%/36%).
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Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister/Leader of the Opposition?
First off Rudd:(click to expand these)
Next we have Abbott:
Now the head-to-head:
Notice where Rudd has had double digit movements in the wrong direction since December – capability, intelligence, out of touch, visionary, superficial, honesty and trustworthy. Compare that to Abbott who has increased an average of a point or two across the board.
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Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
There were no cross-tabs for the last two questions.
22 Comments
And you don’t think the spin by all the silly little pollsters feeding off each other in two weeks and misrepresenting everything might be a small problem?
They did this in SA and Rann still won. They said Tassie, Queensland, NT and ACT would be blood baths for the ALP yet they are all still in power.
The reality is that these polls are just the opinions of a handful of people on a day and have nothing much to do with anything at all.
It’s interesting that economy and health are the two most important while Abbott’s beat up is way down at almost last and terrorism is last.
AS the old saying goes! It’s not the vote that counts, but how the vote is counted.
Hang on…so on the four changes to the tax system mentioned, more people agree than disagree—by a margin of 18 percentage points or more.
But a plurality think that overall the government is heading in the wrong direction on taxation. What do they envision the right direction is?
Are there specific tax policies people might have in mind that they don’t like, which weren’t mentioned in the list? The cuts to income tax rates, for instance? Or do people feel that they’re generally unhappy with the government so answer ‘heading in the wrong direction’ on vague questions although they like the specifics?
Sgt Pepper, it’s the same sort of disconnect that we see with the polling on the stimulus packages – where the stimpaks in a general sense are supported by large majorities, but where most of the individual components are either opposed or break even.
By luck or by design, I’m afraid that the MSM may well be on to something regarding the current downward spiral of the Rudd Government.
While I’m not sure I agree with their introspective (self serving?) naval gazing analysis, that’s cold comfort for Rudd.
While this can be turned around (think of Howard in his first term), they don’t have ‘forever’ before this sentiments becomes ‘fact’ in the mind of those who count – swinging voters.
Let’s hope that the budget is a circuit breaker.
‘Disconnect’ is a nice word isn’t it? Ooh, I like all the specifics! What about as a whole? Nope, don’t like it. OK…
“There should be another box you can check for, ‘I have utterly no idea what you’re talking about. Please, God, don’t ask for my input’.” –Josh Lyman
[visionary,] can some one please explain where abbott has been visionary/.
When will pollytrend etc be updated?
At night, when he sees himself as the first Australian Pope.
My worry is that these may yet translate into a one term wonder outcome for the heroine of the past election, Maxine McKew.
Kevin Rudd is a gung-ho god-botherer; worse, he’s a ditherer.
He is scattering Labor good-will faster than a tornado could pick up Mallee dust and dump it on Melbourne.
I had hoped the Oz voter had become a little better educated than of yore. That Tony Abbott had to re-deliver his racist screed, to get through to the people living in Melbourne’s badlands, Sydney, etc. Tells me they are as illiterate and innumerate as they ever were.
How infinitely, soddingly, disgracefully sad.
Poss – Would be interesting to speculate on the results of all post war elections if the Nats were like the LibDems instead of merely the Lib’s bitch and occasionally entered coalition with the ALP.
A Nat did help get Mike Rann the Premier’s job in SA by becoming a minister (she got ousted in the recent election, but was there for 2 terms).
Venise – I lamented the illiteracy/innumeracy of the Australian general public elsewhere, and can only agree with you.
That the great seething mob of ovine electors are so easily swayed by the MSM into even for a moment contemplating handing the keys of the Lodge to Abbott is an indictment on their intelligence or lack thereof.
Amazing isn’t it. Also damn sad.
Where have you gone PJK,
A Labor Party turns its lonely eyes to you.
(or at least someone like you at selling a damn economic policy!!)
Again we have seen the MSM highlight only those things in the poll that serves their collective anti govt stance.Its really beginning to make me angry — angry that the people out in voter-land seem to swallow the crap hook, line and sinker, and angry that the MSM can be permitted to get away with such blatant misrepresentation without any legal recourse that people who know the truth can take.
Because the MSM is sure NOT going to give the time of day to anyone telling the truth. It disgusts me — I thought this country, and the press, had more integrity. I suppose that is the ultimate misrepresentation, isn’t it.
What price freedom of speech when the dominant forms of disseminating views are controlled by a handful of moguls?
That is why the ABC has a duty to present the dissenting views to those of the mogul controlled media. Instead they now simply fall in line and parrot the line pushed by the moguls. Their programming is descending into the morass also and becoming as bad as the commercial stations.
The resource ‘super tax’ is a good policy, however it was communicated very poorly to the public. It would be better if the money raised is directed to balance the budget, and then flow into a ‘lock box’ instead of election bribes.
Giving money away will make you popular. When you ask for the money back, people will hate you. All those money for health and hospitals have to come from somewhere after all. Despite all the rhetoric, the Federal Government has not shrunk under Kevin Rudd, and the amount of money spent on ‘consultants’ is sickening. Still, it is sad to think that the Australian people would want Tony Abbott as PM.
jenauthor @ Comment 16:
Couldn’t agree with you more. If you are looking for an answer/explanation regarding the behaviour of the MSM, have a look at John Pilger’s article in The New Statesman, 11 March 2010 about the “Murdochracy” in Australia (& elsewhere). As for the ABC, take special note of the penultimate paragraph in the above article – makes you wonder! Don’t know what on earth is going on over at Fairfax. Seems to be “get Kevin” season all round!!
Are the Young Libs stuffing the ballot boxes again? Since yesterday the SMH has had 2 polls and Abbott has won both by very healthy margins. The number of votes seem to be about double that of their usual polls.
I believe the ABC is gradually being ‘colonised’ by News Corp. Look at the number of right wing Murdoch opinionists who appear regularly on the ABC. Bolt, Akerman, Milne,. Dennis Shanahan, the chief political editor of the OO, is on ABC Radio practically weekly these days. RN takes their political stories verbatim from the pages of the OO.
If you ever chance by the Murdoch blog, the Punch, you will see regular columns there written by ABC staff.
Last week, Abbott addressed a group of schoolchildren in Adelaide, wherein he told them that the Earth was “warmer” in the time of Jesus Christ. Now, to you and me, and I suggest, most reasonable people, this would be a story worth reporting. To my knowledge, only Fairfax ran it. News Ltd and their ABC, singing the same (non)-song, chose to not run it.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/abbott-feels-heat-on-jesus-claim-20100509-ulrw.html
Which I find more than passing strange. The ABC normally falls over itself to report every syllable from Abbott, even when he’s just putting in different words something he said the day before. But when he puts his big foot in it…. nothing. The ABC didn’t want to know about it … or the audience to know about it.