This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primary votes running to the Coalition (steady) on 41 and Labor down 1 to 39, washing out into a two party preferred of 51/49 to Labor – a one point gain to the Coalition since last week. The Greens are down 1 to 9 while the broad Others are up 1 to 10. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1866, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

Additional questions this week looked at leadership ratings, IR laws and paparazzi vermin in the media getting their rocks off over politicians private lives – although I may have slightly exaggerated the integrity of those involved in the latter.

These additional questions come from a sample of 1086, giving us an Moe that maxes out around the 3% mark.

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

On the cross-tabs we see more evidence of the increasingly partisan polarisation of federal politics:

89% of Labor voters approve and 87% of Liberal/National voters disapprove. Greens voters are split 48% approve/45% disapprove.

Younger people are more likely to approve of Kevin Rudd’s performance than older people. Those aged under 35 were net positive (45% approve/33% disapprove) and those aged 55+ strongly negative (31% approve/64% disapprove).

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Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

On the cross-tabs we get:

72% of Liberal/National voters approve and 17% disapprove. 77% of Labor voters disapprove and 15% approve.
The only group showing net approval was people aged 65+ (52% approve/42% disapprove).

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Looking at the net approval ratings, we seem to be pretty much fed up with everyone.

Abbott’s program of dragging Rudd’s approval levels down to his own continues to bare fruit.

If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

On the cross-tabs, Essential tells us:

83% of Labor voters and 42% of Liberal/National voters think it is likely – 44% of Liberal/National voters think it is unlikely.
64% of workers think it is likely and 17% unlikely.

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If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?

The cross-tabs have us:

77% of Labor voters were concerned compared to 20% of Liberal/National voters. 50% of full‐time workers were very/quite concerned and 39% a little or not concerned.

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The Opposition Leader Tony Abbot has indicated he would remove the unfair dismissal laws and he would re‐institute AWA Individual contracts. How concerned are you about this?

The cross-tabs tell us:

77% of Labor voters and 24% of Liberal/National voters were concerned about removal of unfair dismissal rights.

70% of Labor voters and 16% of Liberal/National voters were concerned about re‐institution of individual contracts.

There were no substantial differences across demographic groups.

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Deep breath

Tony Abbott says that by removing unfair dismissal laws and re‐instituting AWA Individual contracts he is not bringing back Workchoices but making sure our IR system promotes workplace flexibility. The unions say that taking away unfair dismissal rights and re‐instituting AWA Individual contracts IS bringing back two of the main pillars of WorkChoices and shows the Liberals are determined to make the laws favour companies at the expense of ordinary workers. Whose view is closest to your own?

The cross-tabs have us:

69% of Labor voters support the unions’ position and 56% of Liberal/National voters support Tony Abbott’s position.
51% of those aged 35‐54 support the unions’ position and 21% support Tony Abbott’s position.

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If it turned out the Coalition was planning to reintroduce some of the Howard Government’s IR laws, like ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them in the upcoming federal election?

The cross-tabs tell us:

Among Labor voters, 69% said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 7% more likely and 16% make no difference.

Among Coalition voters, 20% said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 30% more likely and 42% make no difference.

51% of those aged 35‐54 said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 11% more likely and 26% make no difference.

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There have been some recent situations where a politician has resigned from their position or their party after some aspects of their sexual behaviour were made public by the media. Is it appropriate for the media to reveal details of a political figure’s private life?

The cross-tabs went:

64% of Liberal/National voters and 50% of Labor voters approved revealing details of political figure’s personal
life in some or all circumstances.

Greens voters were split 50% some/all, 50% not at all. There were no substantial demographic differences.

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If answered “in some circumstances” –
Is it appropriate for the media to reveal details of a political figure’s private life in any of the following circumstances?

(click to expand)

There were no cross-tabs for this last one.