This week the betting markets had a bit of a non-consensus moment, with Betfair and Sportingbet moving towards the Coalition, Centrebet moving towards Labor, while Sportsbet and IASbet twiddled their thumbs. As a result, the aggregated implied probability of the five agencies pulled back slightly for a Labor victory from 76.4% to 75.5%. The usual charts come in like this:
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3 Comments
I’d heard that there were a couple of really big bets on the Coalition last week; maybe that was the reason for the shift at a couple of agencies, but not others.
implied phallic probability
And as to me, at a purely cultural-aesthetic level, the thought of having the maundering of Tony Abbott dwell with us for the next three years is an utterly repugnant thought. Were I purely selfish, I should go out and campaign for the return of the ALP.
Of course, I’m a socialist and we’re not allowed to be selfish. We are obliged to have rational bases founded in the the empowerment of working people for doing or not doing things, so I don’t get to do that.
With Centrebet offering $4.10 for the Coalition, that looks attractive to me. Hubby and I have decided to put on $500 each so that if the improbable happens, and Abbott wins, we will be able to donate a fair bit to deserving organisations and still have enough left over to self-medicate.