Over the last week we’ve seen the implied probabilities of an ALP election win reduce dramatically by an average of 11.4%, which is the biggest weekly movement we’ve seen in the markets for some considerable time.While all agencies moved in the same direction, there as quite a spread with Sportsbet leading the pack with a 13.5% change while Betfair moved the least with a 7.5% change.
Looking at the price, probability and weekly change tables, we get:
While the tracking charts come in like this:
The post today was a little delayed, as I was running a large simulation on the markets to add some spiffy analysis – but since it, er, didnt work (shhh – occupational hazard 
) – let’s instead look at the two party preferred swing market, where we can aggregate the Sportsbet and Sportinbet markets on this to see where the money is flowing in terms of predicted swing:
If we look at how that has changed over the week, it’s fairly dramatic:
16 Comments
So, the news is, at the pointy end of the betting season, the betting markets tend to head towards the polls?
Possum, I note you say this is the biggest weekly movement for some time. Has there ever been a movement this big that has not been the result of a change of leader? Also has there ever been a change this big during an election campaign?
Not that I can remember Steve, but my memory probably has some gaps in it so I can’t be 100% certain.
Possum, can you enlighten me about which polls are due to come out and in what order and at what points do you update PollyTrend? I’m still curious to see what effect that last Essential 54 will have.
What appalling figures.
In the racing industry the books tend to be correct, is it the same in an election race?
The day Julia Gillard got the top job. I noted, in Crikey, that when a situation is un-winnable the job is given to a woman. Then when she proves it is, in fact, un-winnable she is relieved of her job and the blokes take over again.
From gloom to tomb in a month. It must be a record.
Cud – I was waiting for a Morgan face to face to update the all pollster trend, which is now done.
Hugh Mackay says this in today’s SMH.
“Polls taken just before campaigns begin usually point to the result; mid-campaign fluctuations track little more than day-to-day responses to the torrent of media coverage”.
Does history bear this out?
Kay
Kay,
On the margin of victory – sometimes yes (1996), sometimes no (2001,2004,2007)
On victory itself, sometimes yes (96,01,07), sometimes no (98, 04) – and that’s just if we look at the most recent fed elections.
Interesting to see that many in the media are “truncating” rather than “rounding” in terms of the overall figures. The “swing back ” (yes, I know we all know that changes of this size are far from reliable) of 1.6% would normally be rounded by the media as “2%”, and the gross numbers treated as “50-50″, but on this occasion they have chosen to truncate instead, using 49 – 51 and speaking of a “1%” swing.
I guess any “comeback” by Labor might be seen as “momentum” , and make stories about “failing to make up ground” harder to justify.
is there a reason bet fair seems to give better(higher) odds for the coalition?
I checked the internet. Bet fair prices does not include a commission of around 2-5% on winnings
Sportsbet have now moved back to $1.48 for Labor. Been shortening all day
Last weekend Labor peaked at just under 1.80 on betfair, but has firmed right back into 1.45 .
Betfair is by far the most useful of the aforementioned betting agencies for election tracking purposes. They don’t suspend markets pending announcements or “unusual” betting activity, and they provide a lot of interesting data viewable here – http://au.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=100012927&selectionId=2049781&timeZone=Australia/Sydney®ion=AUS_NZL&locale=en&brand=betfair¤cy=AUD
Click on the tab to the right of “betting on:” to switch between statistics for bets on Labor and Coalition, and checking the “Inverse axis” box displays the implied percentage chance of victory.