Today’s headline betting markets – like clockwork mind you- show a run towards the Coalition with the five agency aggregate implied probability of Labor victory falling from 74.8% to 69.6%. Right about now, it’s worth taking a squiz at the headline Centrebet market probabilities for ALP victory over this campaign, overlaid against what occurred in 2007. The ever brilliant Simon Jackman has been keeping a running series of the implied probability that can be seen in its entirety over here. If we just zoom in to the last few months we get:
This late move back business is becoming a bit of a political institution 
Looking at the daily movement in detail we get:
On the Sportsbet “ALP Seats Won” market, we have:
While the combined Sportsbet and Sportingbet “two party preferred swing market” comes in as:
All up, the headline markets are confident of an ALP win, but one with a small majority somewhere around the 3 to 6 seat mark.
And don’t forget (disgraceful self promotion) – Possum needs a job!
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Just taken another look at Simon Jackson’s blog, and I’m getting a little confused about his scatter plot of the individual seat markets. In this plot, there are three Coalition seats tipped as ALP gains, and nine ALP seats tipped as Coalition gains. That should be a net six seat gain to the Coalition, which by my count would make it 77 seats to the ALP. Yet the scatter plot also states that the expected ALP seat count from these results is 74.
Am I missing something here? I can’t work out where he’s getting 74 from! (and there’s a rather big difference between 77 and 74 as far as my pre-election happiness is concerned …)
Juggler, it’ll be a sum of expected seats weighted for probabilities, not a straight up count.
Thanks, Michael, of course that makes sense. This election is doing my brain in …
I don’t understand this late swing to the Coalition narrative. What is driving it? I would have though Gillard won the last two weeks with the focus on the economy, the Coalition’s disastrous positioning over the NBN, its dodgy costings and the return of Rudd to the campaign. Doesn’t make any sense to me. Polls all over the place.
Is it just the media self-interestedly talking up a knife-edge result?
I’m starting to wonder whether the national betting markets (not just the individual seats markets) can be influenced by one or two big punters. Does anyone know roughly the size of individual bets compared with the overall pool?
David, if you go to betfair, you can see the price history overlaid with the volume of cash wagered as a function of time. The main problem is the time axis has no units so could be the last day or the last 3 months!? You don’t need to sign up or anything to be able to view this. At the moment it isn’t showing a huge late flood of money, but without knowing the time scale that isn’t very informative.
As for the other betting sites, since they are bookies rather than an exchange I think it would be unlikely that this info would be made public.
Well, if you’re right and they squeeze back in, it wouldn’t surprise me (especially if Faulkner and Tanner get busy) if there are vacancies at the top in ALP number-crunching management. (eg Arbib and Sitar may have limited futures).
I’m sure they could happily accomodate your continuing to live in Brisie.
I am a scientist but I still marvel at statisticians who can over-ride a careful seat-by-seat analysis of critical seats that shows “there are three Coalition seats tipped as ALP gains, and nine ALP seats tipped as Coalition gains” by applying some complex, arcane, derivative probability, and get the opposite result–and then believe that calculated result. In our research grant applications we always search for a house-trained statistician to put their name as a CI on the grant (because reviewers the poor insecure souls can reassured) and some usually incomprehensible gobblegook; needless to say it has zip to do with any actual work that gets done–except when we have to write it up in reports to the granting agency or even sometimes to journals. (But in my experience statistical analysis of actual hard experimental results is very different to prior prediction etc. which sadly, in complex issues is usually not just worthless but dangerously misleading.)
The polls are still reflecting voters unhappiness by protest and petulance when it costs them nothing but enough will be different inside the booth to make a difference. Then again: My theory is a version of the American advertising maxim: You can never underestimate the stupidity of the Queensland voter.
Mr Denmore: What’s driving this “late swing to the Coalition narrative”? It’s an “economic rent” election: http://is.gd/eoFAe .
Latest on individual seat betting.
Unlike Simon, I am only using the Sportsbet odds.
I also get that the expected number of ALP seats
is now 74.
Running simulated elections with the individual seat probabilities
assumed as independent variables gives the following outcomes.
ALP majority government (76+,70-,3,1) 40% likely
ALP+Grn alliance majority government (75,71,3,1) 16%
deadlocked (74,72,3,1) 21%
Coalition with all 3 independents together in majority (73,73,3,1) 13%
Coalition with 2 of the 3 inds (72,74,3,1) 5%
Coalition needing only 1 IND (71,75,3,1) 5%
LNP majority government (70-,76+,3,1) 0%
Dr Good – I’ve attempted to scrape the prices a couple of times today and run some simulations. But every time I do, the bloody things have already changed again!
Ugh – come on punters, make up your damn minds! There’s some nerdy types that need to do some things
Possum
Give me hope, do you still think ALP will get up? I still tink it will be 74 ALP plus 1 green, 3/4 seats so close, surely ALP would at least get 1 or 2 of those?
I do Randy – it’s what the data suggests.
It seems the very best the Libs can hope for is hung or minority with indie support… don’t see anyone giving Libs outright majority. If that’s the case, with the greens in BOP in senate – ALP should give the Libs what the Libs gave them for 3 years. Sod the bastards! They knife a leader in the back so they can weasel out of a deal and come on all lachrymose crocodilian over Kevin Rudd – whom they themselves were savaging just before the deed was done.
Thanks Possum, from south of you in Cowper
My old stomping ground – I used to live in Bellingen in the mid 90′s
I worked there from 94 to 97
I lived there from 95 to 98. In a place like that – we’ve probably crossed paths
Possum
I am only looking at the 20 electorates with the most even probabilities
and I am only using one agency, Sportingbet, so things are not
changing too much.
But now I better go and do some more door-knocking I think.
I didn’t live at Bellingen, but thought it was wonderful-possibly you remember Windsong Chimes
Was that out at the old butter factory?
Speaking of volatility,for some reason, after tumbling from the a high of $3.80 down to $2.44, the Lib price (Centrebet) has just rebounded a little back to $2.58.
Yes, wonderful products. then sold to a Victorian charity
David – No thanks. The prospect of a ‘Rodent replay’ under his lamentable Liberal offspring led by Abbort is, as Kev would say, a bridge too far. Dont let the bastards anywhere near the levers of power I say.
The ‘real’ money is now coming in.
Thanks for late burst of erudition, particularly on the betting houses from Bogdanovist.
The betting markets seem to mainly all going the wrong way for Alp, Do yoyu think someone has wind of Newspoll or Nielsen? Clinging to hope that you still think ALP will win Possum
Poss,
The lawn always needs a trim every two weeks if you need some beer money to hold you over.
Let me know.
Jules
So come on beautiful possum – a final prediction?????????
BTW whilst I am nowhere near Brisbane I have been calling people and campaigning for a job for you today. As a political tragic I think you rate as the best poll analyst I have ever seen.
so a labor victory is the top of the bell curve ?
Possum,
have you got the decimal points on Nielsen?
MOE, I know, I know, but you usually get them and it’s so close
Juggler @#2:
76 not 77. When starting from the 83 current seats you need to deduct Lowe, which has been abolished.
Possum… been reading you for years. Just thought I’d drop you a congratulatory note for the consistent high standard. Always sobering, always enlightening, always worthwhile. Good luck with job hunt… you deserve it.