One of the big questions floating around the post-election limbo dance is whether ALP State government and state party parliamentary performance had an impact on the ALP results in the federal election.
If we look at the two party preferred margin of the State ALP parties at their most recent poll (all Newspoll here except for Qld where I used some unpublished polling) and compare that to the swing the ALP experienced on Saturday – this is what we get:
The poorer the State ALP has been performing of late, the larger was the swing against the Federal ALP in that state.
The consistency across every state is hard to argue with.
And don’t forget (disgraceful self promotion) – Possum needs a job! For the lovely folks that have responded so far, I’m working my way through them all as we speak and will take a few days. Big thanks!
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call me a salmon but I think Labors campaign was brilliant. They manage to dupe voters into believing a future Government under the monk might be a disaster when the current Government under Rudd/Gillard actually IS and has been a disaster. It’s amazing Labor got close to the coalition when you stand up their non achievements and backflips against the previous record of the Liberals. I can only think the personal and irrelevant attacks on Abbot must have appealed to a lot of Aussies. I think Julia got a lot more of the woman vote than any poll cares to find out also. This blame toward states etc is tiresome. People are ignoring the forest for the trees. Bring on another election ASAP. By Tuesday Labor will have racked up a Billion dollars in interst since we wwent to the polls. Ergh
the previous comment was written and authorised by Brian Loughnane and came to you direct from Liberal Hq.
Damn dem wimmin
back to da kitchlken now you ho’s
Gotsumptintasay has done told ya
The other comparison that will be worth considering is comparing the Victorian Senate vote to the aggregated Victorian State Upper-house vote. Whilst in the past it has been argued that the State issues do not mix with Federal issues this is certainly not the case now. In fact when voters are presented with an above the line ballot paper they tend to fall into the same habitual pattern. A bit like backing your football team in the finals. The other problem facing State to federal voting in Victoria is the rules on morality of the ballot are different. This has the undesired potential to increase the informality rate as voters are told different things form state to Federal elections. Clearly there is need for greater standardisation and updating of the Senate counting rules.
The slogan in Melbourne in November will be
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