Inspired by a weird little exchange on Twitter where I asked “I wonder how different things would have been if John Watkins was made NSW Premier after Bob Carr?”, to which @BronwynHinz replied “I wonder how different things would have been if John Hewson beat Paul Keating in 1993 and Howard never became PM” – it got me thinking about those sort of “what ifs” in general and how small, innocuous events have so readily cascaded into creating the world in which we live.
The one “What if” that has always stuck in my mind for the sheer vastness of its global consequences is “What if Gavrilo Princip missed?”
Potentially no World War 1, so no World War 2, therefore no Cold War as we knew it, no global political architecture based on the fallout of WW2 (read UN, NATO etc)– the entire world in which we live could so easily have been a profoundly different universe if one bloke was 2 inches out.
So – while we are waiting for something to happen in Australian politics – what are the Australian “What ifs”? Those small innocuous events in history where the slightest change in circumstance or luck could have created a profoundly different Australia to that which we see today?
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And what if… Latham hadn’t got up by one vote – would the ALP have won in 2004?
What if Curtin hadn’t died before the end of WWII? Chifley wouldn’t have run and lost in 1949.
I hope Julia gets to form government and Labor is able to enjoy several terms enjoying the benefits of its hard work in the GFC. Always it is the Libs that coast on Labor’s work: Menzies coasted on Curtin/Chifley reforms, Howard on Hawke & Keating’s.
What if Mike Powell had not broken Bob Beaman’s long jump world record in 1991?
It would be the longest standing long jump world record.
So what. tempus fugit.
There are a number of what ifs in the Gavarilo Princip scenario, what if the driver of the Archduke’s car had not stalled outside the coffee shop Princip had escaped to after the first assassination attempt? what if he went to another coffee shop? what if the Archduke had not gone to visit the wounded from the first assassination attempt but sensably stayed at home with his feet up? I think the WW1 was enevitable at that point anyway. It was like a whole lot of people walking around a gas filled room lighting up cigarettes, it was just a matter of which spark blew them all up. Maybe what if Harold Holt had not gone swimming at Cheviot Beach?
then Gorton not PM – nor McMahon – Whitlam still wins on antiVietnam War vote
What if…and then what if hitler just used another excuse to go to war? Some things are catalysts, some are reasons and some are just convenient excuses.
So JP and kinky happily agree that Lyne Nationals and the Lyne environs presumably also New England are full of racists and so apparently with some glee they identify significant numbers of their fellow citizens as racists.
Glee, presumably because those evil people are on the other side of the political divide?
No need to argue rationally with less-than-humans is it?
Utterly stupid assertions from twits like political animal are all that are seemingly required in this pathetic echo chamber.
It’s the Right that is evil/ mad/ stupid/ bigoted / fearful – of religions beginning with I and ending with slam, fearful of same sex relations and hatred filled for women which is why its perfectly reasonable to hope that people like John Howard and Tony Abbott should just die horrible deaths and soon.
People in the outer suburbs of our cities and people in the bush are worthless and evil.
Everything would be fine if the people in the McMansions redistribute their lucky windfall wealth with their natural rulers and ceased spending it on their vulgar homes and toys such as jetskis.
Just ask JP or Kinky or even doubtless the idiotic political animal.
Good call Poss.
James, it doesn’t really have anything to do with left, right or otherwise – just pricks.
There’s plenty from all sides of the spectrum. I just happen to know about the particularly nasty ones in Lyne.
Not all the Nats are like that – and many decent National Party members show pretty much the same disgust that I do for what goes on there.
But it’s ingrained in the political culture of the place. I don’t envy those trying to clean it up.
I don’t think i’ve proffered an opinion yet about our neighbours’ (i e Lyne peoples) racism.
As usual JK half assed wrong and protesting too much.
Suspect you may be “evil/ mad/ stupid/ bigoted / fearful – of religions beginning with I and ending with slam, fearful of same sex relations and hatred filled for women” but can leave for the other denizens of the echo chamber to make up their own minds.
have a nice day yawl
and ps was there the other day and didnt see a single burning cross
What if… the mighty magpies had’ve held on to win the 1970 grand final. No Colliwobbles, would have won 77 and at least one of 79 and 81 without that monkey on the back. We’d be looking at premiership no 18 or 19 this year. As it is, I guess number 18 has to wait until 2013.
James, where on earth do get the idea that I think that all people who live in the bush are evil and stupid? I live in the bush, after all
Not only did I not say that in my post, I even said that Nat voters I know are not anything like the Nat branch members I know. But like Possum, the Nat branch members I do know are, without exception, sexist and racist, and proud of it.
It is what it is. If I told the Nat I was speaking to after the election (the one who likes Katter) that I thought he was sexist, racist and homophobic and Islamophobic, he’d just agree with me, rather colourfully, I suspect. I’m buggered if I can see why I should pretend not to see in the local Nats something they don’t even try to hide.
This part of the world is NOT chock full of racists, but the National Party branches, which are pretty small, ARE, and openly so.
Prince albert pinged not winged
we would be the nova germania
Possum: apologies if you’ve answered this elsewhere. But do the Newspoll and JWS polls on ‘independents should support which party’ essentially track PPM?
History doesn’t work this way. The German and Austrian general staffs wanted a war, and if the assassination of Franz Ferdinand hadn’t given them a pretext, something else would have done.
Psephos. Indeed, as to pretexts not being truly causative.
Of course one might say the same of those who had no time for Rudd!
If you’re wondering what would have happened if Gavrilo Princip missed, it’s worth reading Norman Stone’s wonderful short book in the First World War (does it all in 200 pages). I think his conclusion is that there would have been a war anyway. The germans were terrified about Russian railroad building (which mean they could mobilise faster and faster). If germany wanted to fight a two-front war (knock out France and then transfer its troops to the east and knock out Russia) the window of opportunity was closing rapidly.
In other words, there would have been another pretext.
On the other hand, nuts like Hitler seem to be rather sui generis. So, if he hadn’t turned up, much might have been different.
Who was the historian who said that it’s important to remember that events which happened a long time in the past were once a long time in the future.
What if Gough had not gone back to the Lodge and had a steak and had instead gone to the senate and withdrawn the supply bills. This would have completely de-legitimised fraser as PM as he was appointed on the guarantee of being able to pass the supply bills.
what if Hawke had not countenanced calm and the nation went on a general strike?
what if the H of R kept on sitting instead of adjourning and revoked supply?
“Hitler seem to be rather sui generis” ??????????????
The same ‘generis’ as many other tyrannical totalitarian dictators such as Josef Stalin, Mao Zedong, Saddam Hussein, Robert Mugabe or Idi Amin?
Seem very ‘generis’ to me.
barney – the Senate were on the verge of passing supply – an hour later and Fraser would have been cactus.
Yes David but having been dismissed, the tactical thing to do was remove Fraser’s supply. although they didn’t have the numbers they still controlled the senate agenda. they could have adjourned debate and Fraser AND Kerr would have been cactus.
Poss
hope you get to the TAB
I wonder what the policy landscape would look like in Australia if the National Party had actually used their support for a Coalition as a bargaining chip for policy rather than just a ticket to largess for a select few?
I imagine their are a lot of Nats around the country at the moment looking on in awe at how massively and quickly the independents are winning policy changes that the Nats wouldn’t think themselves capable of.
Asleep at the wheel is one phrase that springs to mind.
Asleep? More like comatose. What has the National Party done of note in the last 40 years?
Quite a bit apparently Dave:
http://www.nationals.org.au/AboutTheNationals/OurAchievements.aspx
what if intelligent committed people combined to do some great things for Australia?
whoohoo! they have!
Poss
cos I can
It has been so depressing all day today listening to the whining and lies from Coalition supporters, and what’s more, the amount of time given to them by the ABC.
OK Poss, one for the subjunctive history fans:
What if Peter Debnam had behaved just ever so slightly more like
(a) a commissioned military officer with the concepts of honour entailed in that or
(b) like a rational adult and not chosen to try to smear Bob Debus (of all the people!!!) based on evidence from a confirmed lying pedophile rapist armed robber [I could go on but you get the picture] and thus not thrown away the NSW State election and thus not tied the still undead NSW State government around the Federal party’s neck…
As I understand matters Mr Debnam is again a candidate for office rather than dishonourable discharge. What a world to permit this. Anyone in the military that knows him I am sure would be ashamed: except that by his actions he has removed himself from their company. I have friends and relatives on the line in Afghanistan tonight – the moral distance between them and paedo pal Pete is truly vast. Sleep badly tonight Peter Debman, with my utter and everlasting contempt.
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