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Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

With the Parliament set to start its Spring sitting session today, it might be worth taking a look at the current state of play on the polling trends using our Pollytrend system. Over the six week period from the beginning of June, we saw the Coalition pick up 4 points of two party preferred in what was their strongest public support push since the 2010 election – lifting their vote from around 54.5 up to 58.5 by mid July.

Over the past 4 weeks however, the ALP has actually clawed back a point and a half to give them – and I’m not joking here – their largest increase in the vote share over any arbitrary period since the last election. Millions of words have been written about the current state of ALP support, but that pretty much says it all right there.

The two party preferred chart tells the story:

As we would expect, this generally reflects the behaviour in the primary votes of all concerned – detailed charts of which you can find in the sidebar on the right.  Currently, the ALP is facing a 9.1% swing against them from the last election on the primary vote with the LNP picking up 5.2% and the Greens losing about half a percent – all washing out into a current 7.2% swing to the Coalition in two party preferred terms.

The broader “Others” have actually jumped 4.3% in the primary vote since the election – nearly all of which came in net terms from the ALP (though, that doesn’t mean the Others growth has all been actual ALP voters – there would have been an unknown amount of churn between all parties to deliver this result). It’s worth mentioning, but probably not worth thinking too much about – as that broad “Others” group historically gets a bit all over the place.

Looking at the longer term trends in the primary vote, we have:

It’s been a rather smooth ride for all concerned, with only a few bumps along the way. The Coalition has consistently gained primary voteshare, the ALP has consistently lost it by a greater amount and the Greens slightly faded. More detailed versions of each party’s primary vote behavior can be seen over in the sidebar on the right.

As we enter the Spring Parliamentary session, the Coalition is ahead by miles, the long term momentum is with them, but they’ve have come off their peak of 6 weeks ago – with the ALP having gained their largest increase in public support this term (all 1.5% of it).

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  • 1
    Danny Lewis
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 8:33 am | Permalink

    So the ALP are still farked, but not as farked as they were a month ago? ;-)

    OTOH, this could be the start of a trend. A few more months like the last one and the ALP will be back in front again :D

  • 2
    spur212
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    It’s very ugly, but here’s where things were at the end of October 2008 which was around 11 months into the Rudd government

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2008/10/loesstppo29.png

    I guess the difference is that we’re in a hung parliament and there’s a perception that the ALP’s narrative has been hijacked by the Greens.

  • 3
    Go for it!
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 9:39 am | Permalink

    Still a long way to go and with this session due to pass a swag of important bills the government should get some more traction if it sticks to explaining policies and starts to ignore phoney Tonys rantings.

    If as has been reported Gillard is surrounded by wet behind the ears advisers clutching Uni degrees in politics its maybe time to give them the flick and get some experenced hardheaded political operators in, that are not scared shitless by Abbotts grubby tactics.

    Just look at Abbotts silly performance when asked about the mining vs farmers arguement in Perth – after stuffing up badly by sucking up to the slimey Jones he gave another of his stupid non speaking roles .This is NOT the person to lead this country in dangerous times.

  • 4
    Rod Metcalfe
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 10:14 am | Permalink

    Possum, during the Blue reign of John Howard, he dealt with mostly Red Labor states. Now with most states turning Blue what does history show about the Federal Govt being of the same colour? Seems to me this could be a big hurdle for Tony at the next election with NSW, Victoria and WA already Blue, Qld tipped to go that way and SA another possibility. But then again, I may be looking at a short-term trend.

    Rod

  • 5
    Nearlythere
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 11:44 am | Permalink

    It’s probably just a reflection of my disturbed state of mind, but doesn’t the TPP graph look a bit like the profile of one of those plunger-thingies that you use for unblocking toilets…?

  • 6
    autocrat
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 12:40 pm | Permalink

    It’s a very feminine Pollytrend this time around – trouble for Abbott?

  • 7
    Mark Duffett
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    The uptick in the ALP TPP trend curve looks to be solely due to the recent absence of the low outliers that have been dragging the whole curve down since about March. The main body of results still looks to my eye to be trending downwards, or at best bottoming out.

    (Naturally, in the TPP case, the reverse applies complementarily to the Coalition).

  • 8
    dragonista
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 4:08 pm | Permalink

    Interesting that all the voters that have left Labor have gone straight to the Coalition, not the Greens. Have the Greens peaked already?

  • 9
    John Bennetts
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 6:25 pm | Permalink

    Interesting it is, that the two parties which are actually sharing government and are thus a coalition, are shown separately.

    The two parties which may or may not form a coalition at some future time in an effort to form a government, are depicted as though they are one, a Coalition, with capitalisation, when no alliance is currently on foot.

    Why not show Liberals and Country Party (Oops!, the not-very-Nationals, aka the Parochials) separately? Run out of colours? How about light blue for the hayseeds and their paltry performance?

  • 10
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

    Labor hasn’t formed a coalition with anyone. It governs with the support of the Greens and 2 independents. Merely relying on another party’s support doesn’t constitute a coalition.

    The Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport is the Leader of The Nationals, the Shadow Minister for Indigenous Affairs is the Deputy Leader of The Nationals, the Shadow Minister for Regional Development, Local Government and Water is the Leader of The Nationals in the Senate, etc. The Libs and the Nats operate as a coalition in opposition, they will presumably not run against each other in the next election, and they often refer to what a Coalition government might do, whatever the technicalities of their position in opposition.

  • 11
    John64
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

    If you tilt the Polytrend Two Party Preferred graph on its side, it looks like a Labia.

    I wonder, as we have a female Prime Minister, does that mean something?

  • 12
    Andrew Elder
    Posted August 16, 2011 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    Looks like we experienced Peak Abbott about two weeks ago. The guy has stumbled and bumbled since he got back, and we now have a proper government doing proper government things like a carbon tax and a national disability scheme. The Greens have flatlined though. Momentum, you say?

  • 13
    autocrat
    Posted August 17, 2011 at 8:54 am | Permalink

    If you tilt the Polytrend Two Party Preferred graph on its side, it looks like a Labia.

    Have you ever seen one?

  • 14
    John64
    Posted August 17, 2011 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    Gosh autocrat, I sure have. Not just one either. If you’d like to see some too, try google image search. The internet these days truly is wonderful.

  • 15
    caf
    Posted August 17, 2011 at 11:53 am | Permalink

    John Bennetts: The Greens aren’t in government, because they don’t have any members of the Executive.

  • 16
    Gumby Roffo
    Posted August 17, 2011 at 9:20 pm | Permalink

    That graph is starting to look like a uterus or tubes but I could be wong !

  • 17
    Bellistner
    Posted August 20, 2011 at 8:29 am | Permalink

    John64 said:

    If you tilt the Polytrend Two Party Preferred graph on its side, it looks like a Labia.

    Wow, what websites do you visit? :lol:

  • 18
    cooketristan@gmail.com
    Posted August 30, 2011 at 10:38 am | Permalink

    Still want to see error bar shading around these.

    I know you don’t mean it, but it creates a degree of certainty that we don’t have.

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  1. By Labor will come back. That – Will on September 6, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    ...] opening as Australia’s PM. Nor are these private figures. They are partial of a prolonged tenure trend toward [...

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