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Trend Updates for November

Updating our Pollytrend estimates for the last month’s worth of polling shows a substantial move back to Labor of around 3 points of two party preferred, all coming directly from a 3 point boost to their primary vote over the same period.

Looking first at the primary vote trends, we have (click to expand)

   

 

The Coalition peaked in July with a primary vote of 50 – losing 4 points since, all of which moved across to Labor in net terms. That’s lifted Labor’s primary vote from the low of 28 in July up to 32 today. Meanwhile, the Greens continue to hang  around the 12% mark.

In two party preferred terms, we have (click to expand)

There’s been around a 4 and a half point gain to Labor since the lows of July, with 3 of those points coming in over the last 4 to 5 weeks. As you can see from the individual polls, the change hasn’t been some overnight leap, but a much more gradual trend growth in support.

Comparing the current state of play to the last election, we can see that the ALP faces a 4.4% swing against them as of this week – but a much larger 6.2% primary vote swing against them.

Only 2 and half points of that primary vote swing have been picked up by the Coalition, a third of a point by the Greens, with the remainder boosting the broad “Others” vote by around 3 points.

So we currently have the Coalition leading Labor on the primaries by around 46 to 32, with the Greens on 12 and a two party preferred of just over 54/46 to the Opposition.

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  • 1
    The Big Ship
    Posted November 8, 2011 at 2:13 pm | Permalink

    Thanks, Possum, as always, an illuminating set of data for us amateur psephologists to drool over.

  • 2
    Posted November 8, 2011 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    its going to end up looking like an icecream cone

    :)

  • 3
    John Of Melbourne
    Posted November 9, 2011 at 9:23 am | Permalink

    Thanks heaps Possum!

  • 4
    autocrat
    Posted November 10, 2011 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    When the lines cross in the next few months, it’ll look like an ice cream cone with a couple of wafers stuck in the top.

  • 5
    daretotread
    Posted February 5, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink

    HI Poss

    Hope you are going to update trend for January/Feb including Nielsen. We live in interesting times.

2 Trackbacks

  1. ...] Steel aggregates recent polling and comes to pro-ALP movement of 3% in last 4-5 weeks to 54/46 2PP tiny.cc/g5ix5 > 8 Nov CDUlawschoolCDU Law School @ @jonaholmesMW I request rant on [...

  2. ...] Update: A really striking painting of where a check trend is going from Possum. [...

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