We all know about our Pollytrend chart – where we build a rolling average of the most recent poll from each pollster weighted by sample size, then run an aggressive locally weighted polynomial regression through the results to give us an adaptive trend line. While Pollytrend is good for picking up medium term shifts in [...]
Politics, elections and piffle plinking
Author Archives: Possum Comitatus
Morgan Adds Outlier Weight to Newspoll
November 6, 2009 – 5:18 pm
Morgan has cheekily come in a week early, giving us the first week of what is usually a two week Face to Face poll with the primaries running 51 (down 1) /32.5 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a half a point increase to [...]
Pollytrend and Odds and Ends
November 5, 2009 – 7:59 am
Throwing the last polling cycle’s worth of data into the Pollytrend algorithm, we can see that Newspoll produced no discernible change in the trend line – which is to be expected, since our trend here measures how all polls move together and it can adapt to outliers.
Also worth having a squiz at are three charts [...]
Outliers Outliers – get’em while they’re hot!
November 3, 2009 – 6:43 am
Today’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries tied at 41 a piece with the ALP down 7 and the Coalition up 7. This washes out into a two party preferred of 52/48 – a 7 point change from last Newspoll. The Greens are steady on 10 while the broad “Others” are unchanged [...]
First big polling on Asylum Seeker issue
November 2, 2009 – 3:23 pm
This weeks Essential Report has the primaries running 49 (down 1) / 35 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – steady since last week. The Greens are on 8 (steady), while the broad “Others” are up 1 to 8. The missing point is due to [...]
Victoria State Polling
November 2, 2009 – 9:22 am
The Newspoll site (and presumably somewhere at The Oz) has a new Victorian State poll out with the primaries running 43 (steady) /35 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – a 1 point gain to the Labor party over the last two monts. The Greens [...]
Net Access – More Than Just Smut and Piracy
October 29, 2009 – 10:15 am
With the debate about the National Broadband Network well underway, some of the dismissals of why a population would need higher broadband speeds (or as Kevin Rudd so quaintly called it at the Tasmanian Community Cabinet meeting, “Bandspeed”) – often bounce around somewhere between the ridiculous and the incredulous. It’s not only the economic [...]
Could the polls actually be undercooked for Labor?
October 27, 2009 – 11:38 am
Something interesting has been popping up in the polling with the two party preferred vote – there is a statistically significant difference between the two party preferred estimate when poll respondents get to allocate preferences compared to the two party preferred estimate when preferences are allocated on the same basis that they were at the [...]
Essential Report – Best to Manage Edition
October 27, 2009 – 6:16 am
This week’s Essential Report has the primaries running 50 (up 1) / 36 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – a 1 point gain to the ALP since the last Essential Report. The Greens are on 8 (up 1) while the broad others are steady [...]
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Political Sword
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Public Opinion
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