November 8, 2009 – 11:25 am
We all know about our Pollytrend chart – where we build a rolling average of the most recent poll from each pollster weighted by sample size, then run an aggressive locally weighted polynomial regression through the results to give us an adaptive trend line. While Pollytrend is good for picking up medium term shifts in [...]
Posted in pollytrend
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Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Labor Party, Liberal Party, locally weighted polynomial regression, LOESS, political polls, poll averages, Polling, pollytrend
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November 6, 2009 – 5:18 pm
Morgan has cheekily come in a week early, giving us the first week of what is usually a two week Face to Face poll with the primaries running 51 (down 1) /32.5 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a half a point increase to [...]
Posted in morgan
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Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Essential Report, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, morgan, newspoll, outlier, Polling
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November 5, 2009 – 7:59 am
Throwing the last polling cycle’s worth of data into the Pollytrend algorithm, we can see that Newspoll produced no discernible change in the trend line – which is to be expected, since our trend here measures how all polls move together and it can adapt to outliers.
Also worth having a squiz at are three charts [...]
November 3, 2009 – 6:43 am
Today’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries tied at 41 a piece with the ALP down 7 and the Coalition up 7. This washes out into a two party preferred of 52/48 – a 7 point change from last Newspoll. The Greens are steady on 10 while the broad “Others” are unchanged [...]
Posted in newspoll
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Tagged ALP, asylum seekers, Australian Politics, Coalition, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, newspoll, political polling, Polling
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November 2, 2009 – 3:23 pm
This weeks Essential Report has the primaries running 49 (down 1) / 35 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – steady since last week. The Greens are on 8 (steady), while the broad “Others” are up 1 to 8. The missing point is due to [...]
Posted in Essential Report
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Tagged ALP, asylum seekers, Australian Politics, border protection, Coalition, Essential Report, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, Polling, refugees
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November 2, 2009 – 9:44 am
Newspoll over the weekend via The Oz released another rather hideous poll for the NSW government showing the primaries running 42 (up 1) / 30 (down 2) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 1 point increase to the Opposition over the last 2 months. [...]
Posted in State Polling
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Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Barry O'Farrell, Coalition, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Nathan Rees, new south wales, newspoll, Polling, State politics
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November 2, 2009 – 9:22 am
The Newspoll site (and presumably somewhere at The Oz) has a new Victorian State poll out with the primaries running 43 (steady) /35 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – a 1 point gain to the Labor party over the last two monts. The Greens [...]
Posted in State Polling
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Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Greens, John Brumby, Labor Party, Liberal Party, newspoll, State politics, Ted Baillieu, victoria
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October 29, 2009 – 10:15 am
With the debate about the National Broadband Network well underway, some of the dismissals of why a population would need higher broadband speeds (or as Kevin Rudd so quaintly called it at the Tasmanian Community Cabinet meeting, “Bandspeed”) – often bounce around somewhere between the ridiculous and the incredulous. It’s not only the economic [...]
October 27, 2009 – 11:38 am
Something interesting has been popping up in the polling with the two party preferred vote – there is a statistically significant difference between the two party preferred estimate when poll respondents get to allocate preferences compared to the two party preferred estimate when preferences are allocated on the same basis that they were at the [...]
Posted in Polling, election results, morgan, nielsen
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Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, Coalition, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, nielsen, Polling, polls, preference distribution, Roy Morgan, two party preferred
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October 27, 2009 – 6:16 am
This week’s Essential Report has the primaries running 50 (up 1) / 36 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – a 1 point gain to the ALP since the last Essential Report. The Greens are on 8 (up 1) while the broad others are steady [...]
Posted in Essential Report
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Tagged ALP, Australian Politics, best party to manage, Coalition, Essential Report, issues of national importance, Kevin Rudd, Labor Party, Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull, Polling
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